Model S Reservation Tally

[Joel]

Is this considered above average, on-point, or below expectations?

It exceeds historical performance (These are official numbers released at earning calls, shareholder meetings, Tesla Events, etc.):

Date-----------Units-----Reservations/Day
2010 Q2------2,600-----N/A
08/4/2010----2,800-----5.71
2010 Q3------3,000-----7.02
2010Q4-------3,700-----7.61
2011 Q1------4,600-----10.00
2011 Q2------5,300-----7.69
7/31/2011----5,600-----9.68
2011 Q3-------6,500----19.67
2011 Q4-------8,170----18.15
2012 Q1-------9,800----17.91
2012 Q2-------11,500---18.68
7/25/2012-----12,200---28.00


Another way to put the 1,100 reservations into perspective is
2012 Q2, net new reservations totaled 1,700.
2012 Q1, net new reservations totaled 1,630.

So, 2012 Q3 net new reservations is on pace to double the previous quarter.

*I apologize for the dashes. The formatting did not carry over.

 

[jkirkebo]

It exceeds historical performance (These are official numbers released at earning calls, shareholder meetings, Tesla Events, etc.):

Another way to put the 1,100 reservations into perspective is
2012 Q2, net new reservations totaled 1,700.
2012 Q1, net new reservations totaled 1,630.

So, 2012 Q3 net new reservations is on pace to double the previous quarter.

Don't forget about 100 EU reservations in the same time period

 

[green01]

Is this considered above average, on-point, or below expectations?

Elon responded in the second quarter Financial Results conference call that Tesla needed to sell about 8,000 vehicles per year to be cash flow positive. In the same conference call, the 20,000 vehicle per year figure was given as a target, matching their maximum production capacity without more tooling.

Being cash flow positive is a must for survival, so 1100 per month is OK if it can be sustained for several years. By then hopefully, the high volume Generation 3 vehicles will make it to production.

 

[Joel]

Don't forget about 100 EU reservations in the same time period

I apologize :smile:

EU reservations:
July 13, 2012: P1,068
August 9, 2012: P1,152
Approximately 84.00 EU reservations per month

 

[jkirkebo]

I apologize :smile:

EU reservations:
July 13, 2012: P1,068
August 9, 2012: P1,152
Approximately 84.00 EU reservations per month

Or more exactly about 95 per month (84/27*30.5).
Last summer EU P+S reservations were running about 34 per month, so EU reservation speed has nearly tripled from a year ago.

And we haven't had a single test drive yet, nor much mention in the press.

 

[Arnold Panz]

In the same conference call, the 20,000 vehicle per year figure was given as a target, matching their maximum production capacity without more tooling.

I don't recall this from the conf. call. To the contrary, the conf. call was the first time we heard that they had the ability to build more than 20k cars per year, and that the 20k was just a target, not the factory operting at maximum capacity. This is what explained the ability to slow the ramp up now and still deliver 5000 cars by year-end. We can presume that if demand is high enough in the future, Tesla could end up building many more than 20k Model S every year.

 

[MemDave]

Everyone may have noticed, but this from the TM Forum (under Average age of a Tesla Model S owner):

Butch | August 18, 2012
Thank you, DickB; I am #2 at 59. Delivery of SSL#40 scheduled for 8/28!

 

[ChrisC]

I apologize for the dashes. The formatting did not carry over.

Note that you can wrap "CODE" tags around text to get it to use a monospaced font, and then space out the table that way, using spaces instead of dashes.

Date       Units  Reservations/Day
---------- ------ -----------------
2010 Q2    2,600  N/A
08/4/2010  2,800  5.71
...

 

[Robert.Boston]

A rate of ~1,200 reservations per month = 14.4k/year. That's below the 20k target, but it's still an astonishing rate considering that:

1. only a few non-reservation holders have been able to test-drive the car;
2. new reservers are looking at a 10-month wait;
3. Tesla hasn't paid for any advertising; and
4. Tesla hasn't announced plans for SuperCharging.

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes--I think it's possible Tesla might be able to hit 25K-30K if they up their production output. Guess we'll have to wait and see if Tesla wants to up their capex to make that happen.

 

[Zapped]

Being cash flow positive is a must for survival, so 1100 per month is OK if it can be sustained for several years. By then hopefully, the high volume Generation 3 vehicles will make it to production.

1100 / day = approx. 55 / day ( 20 work days per month )
That's 5 cars every hour assuming a 10 hour shift.
I find that amazing ( but then I have no idea about the Mfg business and have never seen the factory)

 

[Warrenbonz]

It exceeds historical performance (These are official numbers released at earning calls, shareholder meetings, Tesla Events, etc.):

Date-----------Units-----Reservations/Day
2010 Q2------2,600-----N/A
08/4/2010----2,800-----5.71
2010 Q3------3,000-----7.02
2010Q4-------3,700-----7.61
2011 Q1------4,600-----10.00
2011 Q2------5,300-----7.69
7/31/2011----5,600-----9.68
2011 Q3-------6,500----19.67
2011 Q4-------8,170----18.15
2012 Q1-------9,800----17.91
2012 Q2-------11,500---18.68
7/25/2012-----12,200---28.00


Another way to put the 1,100 reservations into perspective is
2012 Q2, net new reservations totaled 1,700.
2012 Q1, net new reservations totaled 1,630.

So, 2012 Q3 net new reservations is on pace to double the previous quarter.

*I apologize for the dashes. The formatting did not carry over.

What a great post! This information is so insightful.

Moderator and Michiganmodels - Any interest in putting this data at the beginning of this thread and updating it from time to time?

 

[Joel]

What a great post! This information is so insightful.

Moderator and Michiganmodels - Any interest in putting this data at the beginning of this thread and updating it from time to time?

I'll update/post it each quarter.

 

[WhiteKnight]

Yes--I think it's possible Tesla might be able to hit 25K-30K if they up their production output. Guess we'll have to wait and see if Tesla wants to up their capex to make that happen.

Tesla can produce 50,000 Model S/X per year with their current factory. They don't need any more cap-ex. They would need to hire 2nd and 3rd shifts though. 20K per year is 1 shift working M-F.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla can produce 50,000 Model S/X per year with their current factory. They don't need any more cap-ex. They would need to hire 2nd and 3rd shifts though. 20K per year is 1 shift working M-F.

I was basing that on what green01 said above about rates higher than 20,000 requiring additional equipment. If that's not accurate, then you're correct--no additional capex would be required.

 

[Zzzz...]

If Tesla would go from 20k to 40k there would be some operations that would make economical sense to automatize. BMW plant in South Carolina, when they added production line for x3, that line was way more extensively automated/robotized then x5/x6 lune. Because rate of X3 production is many times higher...

Technically you can automate virtually everything. But most things do not make sense to do with robots, humans are cheap and flexible. Plus humans provide ultimate quality control... It really strange to see that after many thousands of welds done by robots on body in BMW plant final six or eight was done by humans... But it was done so humans actually work close with metal, and if anything is out of the ordinarily, humans will notice/pick it up immediately...

Another example was robotization of the plant, non automotive related, in Australia. There was six people shifts, working 8 hours, 4 shifts total doing packaging job. So 24 workers. They were replaced with 2 robots. But one guy from each shift was intentionally left to work around robots, although he also could have been "replaced". That was done because management was fearing that if something would go wrong, no one would be there to promptly notice thing...

 

[Brian H]

Elon has been talking about pushing (e.g., it's part of his new options incentive package) up to 30K Model S per annum during 2013 (and other comments suggest this would be pushing weekends, holiday OT, etc., without hiring another full shift's staff)).
For the month of July, new res were running at over 20K/annum rate.

mm;
Here's a try at using the 'php' tag for spacing control:

     Date          Units     Reservations/Day
   2010 Q2       2,600            N/A
  08/4/2010      2,800            5.71

 

[Ida Kirk]

no news on new deliveries? is S2 still the last delivered?

 

[ibcs]

Tesla Model S Delivery Update

SSL #32 and SSL #40 are both scheduled for 8/28

 

[W.Petefish]

no news on new deliveries? is S2 still the last delivered?

Check the Tesla Website. If there are about 34-37 founders series, then there have been about 40 signature special deliveries.