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Model S Reservation Tally
- Thread starter Joel
- Start date
If you are asking where to get short interest info - here's one source:
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest - NASDAQ.com
thats probably global looking at the numbers above. a bit hard to estimate, probably about 600 U.S. and 300 EU between Jan1-Jan14th. Not bad....I really thought it was going to drop a lot lower after 12/31. Seems like their maintaining a good pace. I think word of mouth and people starting to see the car is really helping.
And to think that Tesla has yet to really market this at all. Imagine if you were to see commercials on TV for the Model S. I think they are not doing this intentionally yet so that they aren't flooded and backordered by a few years. I know their production rate is probably between 400-500/week. I don't know if they're still doing 2-3 shifts for that but I'm pretty sure that once the workers are at 100% efficiency 1 shift alone can do 400/week. Just speculating but I think once they do reach that efficiency they really could try to market the Model S more.
I think the biggest issue there is that while they may theoretically be able to pump out 800-1200/wk between 3 shifts, the existing delivery process is already bottle-necking them. Something needs to drastically change there. (one of the reasons why dealership franchises exist...). There definitely going to need to do something about that. How do they plan on delivering 500,000/year Gen III's at $30k to the mass market? Only thing I can think of is Tesla opening up their own dealerships or succumbing to the franchise market.
Luckily, Tesla appears to already be employing two shifts. (Possibly three -- it's not clear.)
From what I can tell, they have not gotten the first shift up to the target rate of 400 / week yet. Honestly, I'm not sure they ever will; those sort of targets can be overly optimistic. But even if they have to settle for 350 / week, with two shifts, they can catch up with the demand.... for now.
And at the current rate of demand, they won't have to lay off either shift even if they do get up to speed, which is nice.As others have noticed, the problem lies in delivery and service. Everyone's noticed delivery problems, probably due to difficulty scaling up; and Tesla is definitely not ramping up the service centers nearly fast enough (though I'm sure they're going as fast as they know how to). All of Tesla's spare cash is going to have to go into ramping up delivery and service for a while, and those are both expensive processes with very few economies of scale. (Though there are some potential economies of scale in delivery. They're actually getting to the volume level where it would save money to ship cars in batches of 200-400 by rail from California to somewhere east of the Mississippi. The Tesla Factory is rail-connected... but they don't have a rail-connected transload point east of the Mississippi.)
Well it looks like they are not slowing down one bit in expanding sales. 25 new stores for 2013! The reservation rate should just keep climbing.
Tesla to open 25 new stores in 2013, first Chinese location this spring
Tesla to open 25 new stores in 2013, first Chinese location this spring
Luckily, Tesla appears to already be employing two shifts. (Possibly three -- it's not clear.)
From what I can tell, they have not gotten the first shift up to the target rate of 400 / week yet. Honestly, I'm not sure they ever will; those sort of targets can be overly optimistic. But even if they have to settle for 350 / week, with two shifts, they can catch up with the demand.... for now.
As others have noticed, the problem lies in delivery and service. Everyone's noticed delivery problems, probably due to difficulty scaling up; and Tesla is definitely not ramping up the service centers nearly fast enough (though I'm sure they're going as fast as they know how to). All of Tesla's spare cash is going to have to go into ramping up delivery and service for a while, and those are both expensive processes with very few economies of scale. (Though there are some potential economies of scale in delivery. They're actually getting to the volume level where it would save money to ship cars in batches of 200-400 by rail from California to somewhere east of the Mississippi. The Tesla Factory is rail-connected... but they don't have a rail-connected transload point east of the Mississippi.)
they could ship using containers to make it simple!
Delivery and service are key to the Tesla business strategy. By selling online and through showrooms without inventory, the company has a major advantage and potentially disruptive business model. Other manufacturers can't easily replicate this because of their existing dealer network. I predict that ultimately Tesla will work with Google on their self driving technology and the cars will be produced as ordered and drive themselves to the destination selected by the new owner. So your Tesla will simply call you from the parking lot or driveway when it arrives and announce, "I'm here.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I'd really like to see more North America 2013 reservation posts. It's been very very sparse.
Zzzz...
Member
Nice that Tesla being so popular in Norway! Hope TM will cover it with SuperChargers (but not sure solar panels would make sense there).
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CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
Most new reservation holders simply don't have a connection to this forum or even the one at teslamotors.com. As a matter of statistics its inevitable that we'll get dry periods where we don't see current reporting, while at other times we'll get an avalanche of data. I'd like something more precise and better sourced than "18,500", but its still seems likely that reservations are coming in at a rate somewhere near their established trend. Wait a few days and we'll get it
Edit: Just to clarify, nothing wrong with K Hall as a source. I just meant first hand reports with precise numbers are my preference :tongue:
Except for the cancel part.
18149 reported as a 1/11 reservation this morning on teslamotors.com site.
OK so the last American data point was a 9 day average from Jan 2 to Jan 11. Usually I do at least a 10 day average, but I felt this number was more indicative of what was really happening with reservation numbers since the new year.
UPDATE: American reservation for the 17th of January included into the chart for week 55.
UPDATE: American reservation for the 17th of January included into the chart for week 55.
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SCW-Greg
Active Member
Interesting... You can see the get amped tour spike, then the Motor Trend COTY spike, and I presume the last biggest spike it the rush before the price increase?
Edit: Also interesting how more clearly these show up in the Euro numbers, particularly the Get Amped Tour, which was a US event. Attribute it all to press coverage in general.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Nice to see a new datapoint. It's been crickets since new year due to price increase hangover (of course).
As noted, the real question we all want to know in the coming weeks is the reservation rate per day moving forward (and the growth rate/acceleration).
I expect (as most of us do) that reservation rates will increase as more cars are delivered and show & tell really takes off.
I'm expecting delivery in feb/mar (#9965) and I fully expect that I'll induce a number of reservations personally.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
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