Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[dhanson865]

Rob's track record is better than any other Tesla Analyst (and he does have a finance background), and better than anyone here.

Be careful who you try to call out, Rob's record is impeccable and even Elon has given him props for his analysis.

His record is generally good but far from impeccable. I see errors by him in most episodes, he corrects less than half of them but when he knows about an error he is honest and does his best to correct it.

I will say he is worth watching, and I agree with you that he is better than most stock analysts. He just isn't a techie and sometimes he tries to convey technical information where he is out of his depth.

 

[golfwolf]

I understand their desire to sell more cars I just find it hard to belive that someone would choose the SR when they can get another 50 miles of range for only $3k more. IMO Their price for the SR is way to high to get someone to buy it over the LR. Unless they think that the long wait for the LR will push some people to go for the SR if they can get it sooner.

I've read of people ordering the MYP to shave off delivery time, but now you're looking at $59.9 w/279 miles vs. $67.9 w/ 303. So $8k less for 24 less miles. Though some might actually want the MYP because of the performance, speed and other features.

 

[Firocity]

I've read of people ordering the MYP to shave off delivery time, but now you're looking at $59.9 w/279 miles vs. $67.9 w/ 303. So $8k less for 24 less miles. Though some might actually want the MYP because of the performance, speed and other features.

Most people are switching to MYP pricing as it was when they ordered. Many times it's between $60k and $63k.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I've read of people ordering the MYP to shave off delivery time, but now you're looking at $59.9 w/279 miles vs. $67.9 w/ 303. So $8k less for 24 less miles. Though some might actually want the MYP because of the performance, speed and other features.

You can't compare mileage on cars with different size tires. You are getting less range because of the larger heavier wheels not because of less battery capacity. The SR 279 also becomes 269 with 20's .

You can argue if the upgrades you get with the P are worth the cost ( top speed increase, 0-60 increase, 21" rims and tires, oversized brakes, headlights, Spoiler and some internal trim) but they are all upgrades . If someone with a MYP wants to swap their 21" for 19" they can get that 24 miles back. The SR can never get any more range because it is the battery capacity which is limiting it .

 

[djgarrett21]

I understand their desire to sell more cars I just find it hard to belive that someone would choose the SR when they can get another 50 miles of range for only $3k more. IMO Their price for the SR is way to high to get someone to buy it over the LR. Unless they think that the long wait for the LR will push some people to go for the SR if they can get it sooner.

If indeed the pricing rumor is true I think that is the point, to limit demand. Tesla doesn't want to sell a ton of these because they can't due to limited 4680 supply and needing to work through a production ramp. Also, offering a different variant allows them to sell Austin made cars without cannibalizing Fremont orders.

I'd bet that once Austin production is ramped up we will see more configurations come out of Austin and perhaps Fremont production move to gigacastings/4680. I don't foresee a situation where Tesla sells two configurations of the same variant based upon where the vehicle was manufactured, e.g. MYLR with 4680 out of Austin and without out of Fremont.

Tesla needs time to ramp production before they can equalize between the two factories. This buys them time to do that while still selling vehicles during the ramp.

 

[BGOwner]

I've read of people ordering the MYP to shave off delivery time, but now you're looking at $59.9 w/279 miles vs. $67.9 w/ 303. So $8k less for 24 less miles. Though some might actually want the MYP because of the performance, speed and other features.

Initial SR AWD wait times will also be less then LR and probably P as no queue for them yet. So lots of people will start to order them with almost immediate delivery. AT least at first. Once demand ramps up, I am sure it may switch, but how long will that take.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

How can we be so sure?

Report: Made-in-Texas Tesla Model Y Starts At $59,990

According to new reports, Tesla will offer the first Made-in-Texas Model Y cars at a price of $59,990 (USD).

insideevs.com

It seems they don’t even know enough to report.

We believe NMC chemistry because the only use of LFP at Tesla has been in the form of Prismatic/Pouch cells from outside vendors.

It is theoretically possible to put LFP in 4860 but no one is expecting it, and it's outside both the design and expertise of Tesla.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I understand their desire to sell more cars I just find it hard to belive that someone would choose the SR when they can get another 50 miles of range for only $3k more. IMO Their price for the SR is way to high to get someone to buy it over the LR. Unless they think that the long wait for the LR will push some people to go for the SR if they can get it sooner.

Fleet buyers. Rental car companies. The ones with 100,000 orders for Model Y's... they'd care.

 

[goin2drt]

Here is an article on it. Tesla Model Y Standard Range AWD to be priced at $59,990 USD, set to launch in the coming weeks

Again I will wait until it is actually on the website and then see where they put the LR pricing. My "speculation" is if they launch the SR at $60K the LR will not be $63K but higher.

 

[BGOwner]

Again I will wait until it is actually on the website and then see where they put the LR pricing. My "speculation" is if they launch the SR at $60K the LR will not be $63K but higher.

Oh, I don't disagree. But, even the 3k difference, people will buy it. Less wait time and no backlog.

 

[Mrbrock]

You're making some bad assumptions as if the weighting is in proportion....and you don't know that yet at least as far as saying the 4680 will be heavier...we just don't know that yet. It could be upfront there is a fixed added weight.

Although it does seem clear that either the 4680/structural battery pack isn't going to save weight...or they've intentionally nerfed the SR....or maybe had to do something for added stability...either way, doesn't feel like an LR or P with 4680 is going to save the 400ish lbs people thought it might..although who knows...

No, I am using known weights of 2170 packs as reported by Tesla and basing my calculations off that. Read through my math. Do the math. Please explain how you still believe there’s a 20% weight savings with 4680. You seem to have maybe understand a bit how odd it sounds to believe that at this day in time with the known facts we have. There is a curb weight listed in the EPA docs so unless they are adding unneeded ballast to nerf the car, there isn’t any weight savings.

How can we be so sure?

Report: Made-in-Texas Tesla Model Y Starts At $59,990

According to new reports, Tesla will offer the first Made-in-Texas Model Y cars at a price of $59,990 (USD).

insideevs.com

It seems they don’t even know enough to report.

Someone at the Rodeo or who saw one charging in town said the car had daily and trip settings in the charging screen so no LFP. Is it NCA or NCM, who knows?

I understand their desire to sell more cars I just find it hard to belive that someone would choose the SR when they can get another 50 miles of range for only $3k more. IMO Their price for the SR is way to high to get someone to buy it over the LR. Unless they think that the long wait for the LR will push some people to go for the SR if they can get it sooner.

Not everyone cares about the most range. Some people buy the cheapest they can get. Right now that’s a LR. Saving $3000 is big for some people. And the wait will push people to it if they can get it faster.

You can't compare mileage on cars with different size tires. You are getting less range because of the larger heavier wheels not because of less battery capacity. The SR 279 also becomes 269 with 20's .

You can argue if the upgrades you get with the P are worth the cost ( top speed increase, 0-60 increase, 21" rims and tires, oversized brakes, headlights, Spoiler and some internal trim) but they are all upgrades . If someone with a MYP wants to swap their 21" for 19" they can get that 24 miles back. The SR can never get any more range because it is the battery capacity which is limiting it .

You can compare because that’s how they are sold. If you can get a SR with 280 miles in 4 weeks, a P with 303 miles in 5 weeks or a LR with 330 miles in 40 weeks, which would you choose if you just want a Model Y period. Not the fastest or the longest range, you just want a model y? The average car buyer doesnt give a crap about range on certain tires vs others. They just want a car that carries their stuff and their family. Enthusiasts like us are a small percentage of those buying Teslas so don’t assume they all have the same buying behaviors we do. Tesla knows this. They do business for the masses, not the minute.

 

[advocate8]

You can't compare mileage on cars with different size tires. You are getting less range because of the larger heavier wheels not because of less battery capacity. The SR 279 also becomes 269 with 20's .

You can argue if the upgrades you get with the P are worth the cost ( top speed increase, 0-60 increase, 21" rims and tires, oversized brakes, headlights, Spoiler and some internal trim) but they are all upgrades . If someone with a MYP wants to swap their 21" for 19" they can get that 24 miles back. The SR can never get any more range because it is the battery capacity which is limiting it .

The weight of the wheels is only a small part of the range differences and only really matters much when you’re changing rotational speed.
It’s mainly the aerodynamics of the tire/wheel combinations.

 

[Firocity]

The weight of the wheels is only a small part of the range differences and only really matters much when you’re changing rotational speed.
It’s mainly the aerodynamics of the tire/wheel combinations.

Does anyone have data on a MYP with 82kw battery with 19' gemini wheels? Curious to get the range on that so we can compare apples to apples.

 

[advocate8]

Does anyone have data on a MYP with 82kw battery with 19' gemini wheels? Curious to get the range on that so we can compare apples to apples.

haven’t found any with kind of medium-grade search. The supposition is of course there is no reason it would be any different from the MYLR as there don’t seem to be any differences between the vehicles that are significant as far as aerodynamics (the big thing for this) or weight.
I’d hope the spoiler does SOMETHING but its prob mainly aesthetic. Being fractionally lower might be worth a mile or two?

But it would be really hard to get useful data as measurements of range Ive seen from experts and amateurs alike are all over the map... so much variation in wind and terrain etc that it just makes hash of attempts. and we all know the EPA ranges are kind of in their own reality.

not useful at all really but here’s a decent graph on the MYLR wheel/tire combinations: Any MY Performance owner experience switching to 19 inch wheels?

 

[Firocity]

haven’t found any with kind of medium-grade search. The supposition is of course there is no reason it would be any different from the MYLR as there don’t seem to be any differences between the vehicles that are significant as far as aerodynamics (the big thing for this) or weight.
I’d hope the spoiler does SOMETHING but its prob mainly aesthetic. Being fractionally lower might be worth a mile or two?

But it would be really hard to get useful data as measurements of range Ive seen from experts and amateurs alike are all over the map... so much variation in wind and terrain etc that it just makes hash of attempts. and we all know the EPA ranges are kind of in their own reality.

not useful at all really but here’s a decent graph on the MYLR wheel/tire combinations: Any MY Performance owner experience switching to 19 inch wheels?

Would be interesting. I was under the impression the motor in the MYP was different than LR which is how the 0-60 numbers and higher top speed is achieved.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Not everyone cares about the most range. Some people buy the cheapest they can get. Right now that’s a LR. Saving $3000 is big for some people. And the wait will push people to it if they can get it faster.

I completely disagree, If people want a Cheap EV they won't be buying a Tesla. They can get an ID4, Ionic5 or a BZ4x in the 40K-50K range and save much more then 3K with a longer range.

If someone is considering a Tesla and about to pay 60K+ an additional 3K for 50 miles range is not going to deter anyone. If anything Its only going to increase resale value if you only intend to keep the car a couple years and its going to increase the usability of the vehicle if you intend to keep it 10+ years .

The "Cheapest car" arguement works if your talking about sacrificing range and $$ for speed and looks but it doesn't apply to the SR vs LR

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Would be interesting. I was under the impression the motor in the MYP was different than LR which is how the 0-60 numbers and higher top speed is achieved.

Bigger brakes, lower suspension, rear spoiler, and probably most importantly a different rear motor.

I think that rear motor might trade a hair of efficiency for speed, but yeah a MYP with 19 gemini's will likely be within a few miles of the MYLR range.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

haven’t found any with kind of medium-grade search. The supposition is of course there is no reason it would be any different from the MYLR as there don’t seem to be any differences between the vehicles that are significant as far as aerodynamics (the big thing for this) or weight.
I’d hope the spoiler does SOMETHING but its prob mainly aesthetic. Being fractionally lower might be worth a mile or two?

There were reports of the MYP shipping without the spoiler last year and them limiting the top speed until it was installed so there must have been a reason for it.

Tesla Model Y Performance to be delivered without trunk spoiler due to parts shortage, top speed limited

Bigger brakes, lower suspension, rear spoiler, and probably most importantly a different rear motor.

I think that rear motor might trade a hair of efficiency for speed, but yeah a MYP with 19 gemini's will likely be within a few miles of the MYLR range.

Also remember that a lower suspension means lower wind resistance so there is some savings there.

 

[Andrew Smith]

I understand their desire to sell more cars I just find it hard to belive that someone would choose the SR when they can get another 50 miles of range for only $3k more. IMO Their price for the SR is way to high to get someone to buy it over the LR. Unless they think that the long wait for the LR will push some people to go for the SR if they can get it sooner.

I agree, I will choose LR over SR for that additional 50 miles since I can do a back and forth commute in one charge without needing to stop for charging. So I guess it depends on people. Also I think Tesla knows that people want 4680 so it’s like a cash cow.

We’ve already seen here how many people want 4680 and Tesla has that data as well.

I’m pretty sure a Tesla employee comes on these forums and gets idea what people want…

 

[advocate8]

Would be interesting. I was under the impression the motor in the MYP was different than LR which is how the 0-60 numbers and higher top speed is achieved.

There’s a lot of chatter about the rear motors... Brain goes numb reading it as its almost entirely about how much the 990 in the MYLR can be pushed for additional power. The main difference, according to the other threads, is in some cost-savings in the electronics that puts a ceiling on the power. But I haven’t seen anything saying one would be more efficient than the other. It may be, just haven’t seen it, and not sure why it WOULD be.