Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[uscbucsfan]

I follow one of the Tesla inventory tracking groups and talked to the person who runs it. I asked them if they seen it this quiet at the beginning of the quarter and she cannot remember ever seeing it this dead with no VINs coming out. They're for sure upgrades coming out imo

Or the supply chain has been halted again with China closing down. All models are seeing similar timeline shifts since the new quarter started.

 

[Brolan]

I would need to see the LFP batteries tested in colder temps than that. Typical Minnesota winter has temps in the -5F to -20F range.

 

[Ron J.]

I would need to see the LFP batteries tested in colder temps than that. Typical Minnesota winter has temps in the -5F to -20F range.

LFP batteries are not used in MYs sold in USA.

 

[Mrbrock]

I would imagine you can adopt the front mega-cast without doing anything different with the battery if you want.

They added the rear without needing a structural battery so assume the front is the same. If they do switch over to 2170 structural packs, then it would be seamless to switch to 4680 further down the line assuming they make the 2170 packs the same physical size as the 4680 ones.

No it was a white Model Y. The back had no badging on it which is what caught my eye.

Pictures of the rear and the vin? You said you have only seen 4 new cars (all Model S) in the lot in the last 12 days? So the Austin Model Y was there in March?

I'm one of the group with an ordered MY LR at substantial discount from current prices. My only thought at the moment is that this probably means I'll get production from Fremont, unless Tesla manages a really rapid ramp at Austin.

This makes sense (I think) from Tesla's POV: those who have locked in lower prices will get the older technology, while the 4680 Model Y SR has justification to have a price premium.

If it works out this way, I'll look into flipping the Fremont car and then waiting for the (future) XLR MIA Model Y next year.

This scenario occurred to me some time ago so I don't feel any particular angst over it playing out this way.

Please stop perpetuating the hype that the 4680 cells are much more advanced/better than 2170. And that they will have longer range than 2170 packs of the same size. Whatever gains they have in terms of cell density, they lose in extra weight. Look at the current SR AWD MY. 15% range loss which should lead to 15% less weight in battery plus weight savings from front megacast. 400kg 2170 LR battery would be 60kg or 132lbs plus 30-40 from megacast or 150+ lbs weight savings. We only saw 50 and a higher 0-60 time. So if you factor the majority of the weight savings as megacast, a 82kwh LR pack would increase weight to 470kg or 1034 lb, a 154# increase in pack weight from the 2170 LR pack. So unless they can unlock some more energy density in 4680 production, there won't be any weight reduction with 4680 so no range increase.

For those wanting XLR MY with 400+ miles, you'd need a 99kwh battery pack based on the 69kwh doing 279 miles. And that doesn't take into account the extra weight of the much larger battery so probably need over 100kwh of 4680.

Please look at the data and numbers that are in front of you.

TESLA WILL NOT MAKE A 400 MILE 4680 MODEL Y.

Hell, they will struggle to make a 330 mile LR. 69kwh from 828 cells is 80kwh from 960 cells (or 984 cells is 82 kwh). That is the same capacity as current LR but with likely extra weight so likely reduced range from 4680 cells. It really looks like this SR AWD from Austin is here to stay along with 2170 LR from Fremont until they can figure out a way to get more energy density in 4680 cells without the extra weight hit. If you want the longest range MY available for the next year or two (or longer) take a Fremont Model Y.

 

[SageBrush]

Please stop perpetuating the hype that the 4680 cells are much more advanced/better than 2170. And that they will have longer range than 2170 packs of the same size. Whatever gains they have in terms of cell density, they lose in extra weight.

My understanding is that the structural battery allows about a 20% higher packing density. '4680' pack is shorthand for structural battery. The weight savings is expected with a structural battery.

Second, I do expect faster charging from a 4680 cell than from 2170 cell due to better heat dissipation. It is this performance characteristic I was thinking of when I said that 4680 packs can command a price premium.

Lastly,
If it is true that 4680 structural packs have a 20% packing advantage over current 2170 designs, and current 2170 cell packs in the LR are 330 EPA miles, then Tesla could produce a 330*1.2 = 396 EPA mile XLR Model Y in a 4680 structural pack design.

 

[voxel]

I would need to see the LFP batteries tested in colder temps than that. Typical Minnesota winter has temps in the -5F to -20F range.

See Bjorn’s Model 3 LFP cold range test in Norway. The results are amazing. I was a non believer until I saw his video review.

Also LFPs are used in the new SR Y. I wish they were though.

 

[SageBrush]

Also LFPs are used in the new SR Y. I wish they were though.

Are you missing a not ?

 

[Brolan]

See Bjorn’s Model 3 LFP cold range test in Norway. The results are amazing. I was a non believer until I saw his video review.

Also LFPs are used in the new SR Y. I wish they were though.

I did. His test temperature was not even below zero F.

 

[mrazndead]

Elon, give us our damn cars!!!!!!!!!!! I've been waiting for 3.5 weeks now!!!!!!.... 9 more months to go ...lucky I got my model 3 to drive around in the mean time .

 

[Y Knot]

A lighter/quicker Model Y Performance would do. Screw the range. I have a 10 mile commute. I bought electric for how it drives, not to avoid charging for 3 weeks.

 

[Ron J.]

Elon, give us our damn cars!!!!!!!!!!! I've been waiting for 3.5 weeks now!!!!!!.... 9 more months to go ...lucky I got my model 3 to drive around in the mean time .

You are complaining after just 3.5 weeks. I've been waiting for 7 months and still several more to go.

 

[voxel]

Are you missing a not ?

Yeah.. I meant NOT.... can't edit my post though.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

So rumor is that the SR is going to be $59,990. I am suddenly much happier with my 2170...

 

[Firocity]

So rumor is that the SR is going to be $59,990. I am suddenly much happier with my 2170...

Same… The only thing I can see going for the 4680 SR is if it can charge 2X as fast as the 2170. Otherwise it’s a terrible deal.

 

[Zebelkhan]

My understanding is that the structural battery allows about a 20% higher packing density. '4680' pack is shorthand for structural battery. The weight savings is expected with a structural battery.

Second, I do expect faster charging from a 4680 cell than from 2170 cell due to better heat dissipation. It is this performance characteristic I was thinking of when I said that 4680 packs can command a price premium.

Lastly,
If it is true that 4680 structural packs have a 20% packing advantage over current 2170 designs, and current 2170 cell packs in the LR are 330 EPA miles, then Tesla could produce a 330*1.2 = 396 EPA mile XLR Model Y in a 4680 structural pack design.

The new SR has 279ish range. The old SR I belive was 245ish. About 14% more range. So the new LR could potentially have about 375ish range. I could be wrong obviously

 

[afscotch]

So rumor is that the SR is going to be $59,990. I am suddenly much happier with my 2170...

I think that is part of the pricing strategy.

 

[Sludog]

Same… The only thing I can see going for the 4680 SR is if it can charge 2X as fast as the 2170. Otherwise it’s a terrible deal.

Agree, Unless you really need a car ASAP and can get the SR Model Y within a month or two otherwise I'd wait for the LR for the extra $3k as well.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Same… The only thing I can see going for the 4680 SR is if it can charge 2X as fast as the 2170. Otherwise it’s a terrible deal.

I'm not sure there are any chargers which could put out double the peak current a MYLR can take... close, but not 2x

 

[Terminator857]

Yeah, that makes total sense. Abandon all the 2170 batteries they're pumping out by the millions and point their highest volume car at the new tech which has a few hundred cars worth of supply.... yeah - do that! Tomorrow! It'll totally be cool!

So difficult to remove 2170s from a battery pack. Tesla has never done that before.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

So difficult to remove 2170s from a battery pack. Tesla has never done that before.

I don't think you understand the argument.

I'm not saying anything about how hard it is to remove cells from a pack (although I assume you know that you can't just plug a 2170 into where a 4680 would go). I'm saying that since the supply of 4680's is severely constrained, Tesla can ship MORE new cars from the Texas plant by using fewer 4680 cells per pack in the near term.