Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Mrbrock]

The front casting probably doesn’t do anything for rigidity. That improvement was going to come from the structural pack, which Elon said could make a convertible as rigid as a coupe all by itself, which is impressive if even half true.
A reasonable question is whether the 2170 pack that would be used at Austin between the two castings -- which is how it will be used -- will add weight. It will have to be in the same ballpark for stiffness as the “structural pack” as the chassis will be the same one set up for castings, which has no floor. So there prob will be some extra steel required.
In the paperwork for the earnings call it says this pack isn’t “structural” which I take only to mean the batteries themselves aren’t bonded into the skins at top and bottom to create a giant trussed beam as they are with 4680 packs. It will of course be structural in the classic sense of the word, in that the pack itself will be a structural element to make up for the bottom of chassis being missing as compared to Fremont cars.

It will be the same weight as the pack used in Fremont. It will be the same pack, same production line just with front casting so there won’t be as much assembly as the Fremont line. This line will be different than the 4680 line. Not sure what changes you think there will be for Austin 2170 vs Fremont. Swapping in the front casting doesn’t require any additional structural support vs what is currently coming out of Fremont.

There will be one (or more) line making structural 4680 and one line (or more) making the current Fremont 2170 with front casting swapped in.

 

[Mrbrock]

My best reading of the silence and carefully chosen words is this:

They've gotten past the ability to efficiently MAKE 4680's and are seeing the cost savings / manufacturing efficiency gains. Which is great!

They DON'T yet have a good grip on overall increased performance - power density, weight savings, charge rates - that kind of stuff. They are likely to figure it out over time as they gain experience with the new cells and structure, but they don't want to promise it and they for sure are not betting the entire MYLR production on it.

They have not seen the cost savings or manufacturing efficiency gains until they can produce at scale. Making enough cells for 50 cars a day is not enough to realize any gains. Until they can realize a gain over current 2170 production rates/costs, there are no gains.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

They have not seen the cost savings or manufacturing efficiency gains until they can produce at scale. Making enough cells for 50 cars a day is not enough to realize any gains. Until they can realize a gain over current 2170 production rates/costs, there are no gains.

I'll attempt nuance and assert that they have found the manufacturing efficiency gains, but they have not yet gotten those processes into Scale which is where they'll hit the bottom line.

 

[advocate8]

The 4680 question was well-phrased. So.. yeah. it sounds like its on target to be useful for cost savings, manufacture etc.
But ... not that it is going to perform better.
I didn’t hear them say anything that directly dealt with expectations for how the batteries will function. The closest was the remark that they expect to be building longer-range structural packs eventually.
When Elon said he expects them "to be competitive with the best alternatives this year.. and exceed the best alternatives next year” it would be easy to think he meant power stored per pound, or range for same weight or however you want to phrase it.
But that remark was sandwiched between comments purely centered on the cost of making the batteries, and it was an investors’ earnings call, so that could well have been referring solely to cost competitiveness with say Panasonic on 2170. Dunno.

Elon was unusually well-behaved though he sounded a little hesitant and maybe tired. Def sounded as if was personally hurt, and a bit defensive that people didn’t get more excited about Optimus after the last call.

 

[blinkme323]

SAs getting bombarded right now with hold requests for Q3

 

[advocate8]

It will be the same weight as the pack used in Fremont. It will be the same pack, same production line just with front casting so there won’t be as much assembly as the Fremont line. This line will be different than the 4680 line. Not sure what changes you think there will be for Austin 2170 vs Fremont. Swapping in the front casting doesn’t require any additional structural support vs what is currently coming out of Fremont.

There will be one (or more) line making structural 4680 and one line (or more) making the current Fremont 2170 with front casting swapped in.

They are not going to do it that way. They will not be using two versions of the central part of the chassis in Austin. They will be using the one they are set up to make there that is completely different in that it has no floor and therefore little structure underneath the car.
The chassis used in Fremont has all the structure it needs before the pack is bolted underneath. The one in Austin needs additional structure as it was designed to work only with a battery pack that replaces the missing sheet metal.

The Austin lines are set up to use that chassis open at the bottom, shoving the structural pack with the interior floor carpet and seats and console already installed in one, elegant motion.

This all has zero to do with the front casting which is likely, yes, plug and play for either version of central chassis.

And this 2170 pack will look very very similar to the 4680 pack, or at least be very very similar dimensionally so there is little to no adjustment to the lines in Austin, they can stay identical, and not need retooling in the future.

 

[BMWY]

With the almost mythical status that the 4680 has taken, who in their right mind would take a 2170 pack right now unless it was absolutely necessary?

I’m not saying I believe the hype but between Tesla, the media, and here, you’d think this was the carb to FI evolution.

 

[Mrbrock]

They are not going to do it that way. They will not be using two versions of the central part of the chassis in Austin. They will be using the one they are set up to make there that is completely different in that it has no floor and therefore little structure underneath the car.
The chassis used in Fremont has all the structure it needs before the pack is bolted underneath. The one in Austin needs additional structure as it was designed to work only with a battery pack that replaces the missing sheet metal.

The Austin lines are set up to use that chassis open at the bottom, shoving the structural pack with the interior floor carpet and seats and console already installed in one, elegant motion.

This all has zero to do with the front casting which is likely, yes, plug and play for either version of central chassis.

And this 2170 pack will look very very similar to the 4680 pack, or at least be very very similar dimensionally so there is little to no adjustment to the lines in Austin, they can stay identical, and not need retooling in the future.

No, it will be a completely new non structural 2170 line which is why it won’t be ready til later this year. It isn’t built yet. What you speak about is a 2170 structural line. If the line is set for a structural 4680, whatever replaces that 4680 part has to be structural, therefore structural 2170. They have very specifically stated it will be a non structural 2170. Which means it will be identical to Fremont. Which solves the problem of having two differently constructed vehicles with the same name.

You are thinking about this from the view that Tesla will just modify their current 4680 process to use 2170. We know that isn’t possible without 2170 structural packs and it seems they don’t want to do that which will make the car even heavier. So they will build a non structural 2170 line and the parts they need for that. Pretty simple to have a separate stamping machine to make a solid floor for non-structural vs the holey floor for structural 4680.

 

[blinkme323]

With the almost mythical status that the 4680 has taken, who in their right mind would take a 2170 pack right now unless it was absolutely necessary?

I’m not saying I believe the hype but between Tesla, the media, and here, you’d think this was the carb to FI evolution.

Well for one, no one (seemingly including Elon) is sure that a LR or P 4680 will ever even exist. So there’s that tidbit

 

[Yperformance]

By chance was chatting with my neighbor who owns a model 3 had it a couple of years, likes it but has had issues with torsional regidity, roof crack seals pulling out of shape panel edges chipping for no obvious reason. Is that an old thing? Perhaps we need structured chassis more than we thought.

 

[Mrbrock]

With the almost mythical status that the 4680 has taken, who in their right mind would take a 2170 pack right now unless it was absolutely necessary?

I’m not saying I believe the hype but between Tesla, the media, and here, you’d think this was the carb to FI evolution.

What mythical status? That it is slower, has more weight and less range in MY than the 2170? If you choose 4680 right now you need your head examined. See if there is a Tesla hype machine embedded in there. 4680 is good for Tesla and their shareholders. So far not good for vehicle owners. Tesla hasn’t really hyped 4680 beyond cost savings. Now, the hype from online has taken it a different direction but that’s not Teslas fault. Yes they could set the record straight but that doesn’t really help the, in any way.

 

[kabin]

My best reading of the silence and carefully chosen words is this:

They've gotten past the ability to efficiently MAKE 4680's and are seeing the cost savings / manufacturing efficiency gains. Which is great!

They DON'T yet have a good grip on overall increased performance - power density, weight savings, charge rates - that kind of stuff. They are likely to figure it out over time as they gain experience with the new cells and structure, but they don't want to promise it and they for sure are not betting the entire MYLR production on it.

Not much detail response regarding that range question - said something like they were seeing results within expectations mentioned during battery day.

As usual the take away is to listen to what they don't say.

 

[kabin]

Interesting and possibly problematic that Shanghai provides some parts for North American factories.

Annual production goals - the first guy said something like 'should reach 50% growth (1.5M)' whereas Elon says something like 'will reach 50% growth and have a reasonable chance for 60% growth.'

 

[Andrew Smith]

During the earning call, atleast Elon acknowledged the wait times. Elon mentioned Q3 or Q4 of this year they’ll deliver few 4680 battery MY. So that means next year of Q3 or Q4 as per Elon time and by that time if everything works out we might see 4680 on few Cybertrucks.

Few questions from investors regarding 4680 will definitely be under Elons radar and probably will come up with real data for next earnings call.

 

[Mrbrock]

During the earning call, atleast Elon acknowledged the wait times. Elon mentioned Q3 or Q4 of this year they’ll deliver few 4680 battery MY. So that means next year of Q3 or Q4 as per Elon time and by that time if everything works out we might see 4680 on few Cybertrucks.

Few questions from investors regarding 4680 will definitely be under Elons radar and probably will come up with real data for next earnings call.

What do you mean Q3 or Q4? They delivered some at the rodeo…supposedly…

 

[kabin]

I must've missed them mentioning it but the '22 Q1 earnings documentation shows total vehicle production was slightly down from '21 Q4 to '22 Q1 including models 3/Y.

 

[Mrbrock]

No mention of the $420 tequila on 4/20?

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[Andrew Smith]

What do you mean Q3 or Q4? They delivered some at the rodeo…supposedly…

We all don’t know what they delivered. Clearly they were avoiding all the 4680 questions. If they had any data closer to what they said during battery day they would have bragged about it. The same way they bragged for a good few mins about the Tesla insurance.

 

[uscbucsfan]

We all don’t know what they delivered. Clearly they were avoiding all the 4680 questions. If they had any data closer to what they said during battery day they would have bragged about it. The same way they bragged for a good few mins about the Tesla insurance.

They said they delivered 4680 cars at Austin in the Q1 report. An employee also confirmed this.

 

[Andrew Smith]

In the past few months Tesla has been really focused on expanding their energy business of installing mega packs. What kind of battery mega packs use?