Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[tangible1]

It does make a certain amount of sense that the Austin Y’s would have a lower range (ie use fewer cells). It certainly solves the problem of people wanting to cancel orders to switch over.

The bigger question for me is when will Fremont switch over to front castings and whatever other upgrades the Austin Y has? I don’t care about 4680, but I’d really like the stiffer frame, door panel, and whatever else they’re switching up.

The 4680 MY doesn't happen without the structural battery pack and the front megacast. Plus the existing rear megacast. It's an all-or-nothing proposition.

For Tesla, the MY v2.0 chassis is all about making the car faster, with less cost, and higher quality. Very good things for both Tesla and customers.
For customers, the 4680 'Battery Day' presentation sent the blogs into overdrive and now peoples' minds are mush. Every wishful thought is given credence. Bad.

It's entirely possible that the newly EPA-rated MY version could be 4680-based. Especially given the delayed ramp-up of those new cells and initial lack of availability.
It's also possible that the new MY variant is LFP battery-based, making complete sense for cost control and consistency with what China ships to the European market.

No one outside Tesla knows anything about any of this (well, certain regulatory and testing centers may know...)
Tesla isn't saying yet, and the blogs will do what they do.....clickbait !!

 

[Ghostchili]

Sounds like something a SA would say when they are tired of putting orders on hold once a Fremont vin was issued to someone who is holding out for Austin build.

He recommended I put my order on hold.

 

[advocate8]

My bet is it's a niche product attempting to address the MY's ridiculous pricing. It adds complications to Tesla's product skew and likely extends EDDs but probably not a better time to add a product derivative than now with the Austin gigafactory opening.

Except it can’t bring prices down much. It will still cost over $50k. And from a business standpoint, they have no reason to bring prices down anytime soon because they have huge demand at current prices and no way to meet it. One day they’ll need a cheaper model. Not now, though, and not for a year or more.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Is reducing the backlog the immediate goal? Or is capturing all segments of this market?

Pulling in as much money as possible is their current goal... Thats why they are prioritizing higher priced options.

If I could get an I5 or one of those VW busses today I'd drop my tesla order. Backlog only remains a backlog while there are no other options, when options become more plentiful the backlog will melt away so they definitly want to get to a point where they can eliminate the backlog and start to manufacturer other vehicles like the CT

 

[JimMay]

Is reducing the backlog the immediate goal? Or is capturing all segments of this market?

Reducing backlog is the immediate goal, if they wanted to capture market segment share they would have found a way to do the model “2”. Different trims on an already expensive model y does nothing for MSS.

 

[SilverSp33d3r]

Reducing backlog is the immediate goal, if they wanted to capture market segment share they would have found a way to do the model “2”. Different trims on an already expensive model y does nothing for MSS.

I’m not sure but a lot of competition is appearing with 249-300 miles of range…

 

[SilverSp33d3r]

Except it can’t bring prices down much. It will still cost over $50k. And from a business standpoint, they have no reason to bring prices down anytime soon because they have huge demand at current prices and no way to meet it. One day they’ll need a cheaper model. Not now, though, and not for a year or more.

Unless they can profit more on the lower cost car while they ramp production?

 

[Destiny1701]

This validates the electric Vikings video claiming Tesla orders were up 100%.

Ok got an updated EDD after releasing hold on the blue MYP. As predicted by the SA…he was correct. April is done. Now into May/June for MYP even…and he said it’s going to get worse shortly.

 

[JimMay]

I’m not sure but a lot of competition is appearing with 249-300 miles of range…

Which does not nothing for Tesla MSS, because they have a 10 month backlog in their order book. Unless somehow they think demand will wane (which I don’t see with supply getting outstripped due to component supply constraints affecting all automakers), they will continue to maintain MSS and also be able to command higher gross margins. This might not be the case 2 years from now, but Tesla’s problem is not what their competitors are doing, it’s really figuring out to to even build cars fast enough in the first place.

 

[tangible1]

The 4680 MY doesn't happen without the structural battery pack and the front megacast. Plus the existing rear megacast. It's an all-or-nothing proposition.

For Tesla, the MY v2.0 chassis is all about making the car faster, with less cost, and higher quality. Very good things for both Tesla and customers.
For customers, the 4680 'Battery Day' presentation sent the blogs into overdrive and now peoples' minds are mush. Every wishful thought is given credence. Bad.

It's entirely possible that the newly EPA-rated MY version could be 4680-based. Especially given the delayed ramp-up of those new cells and initial lack of availability.
It's also possible that the new MY variant is LFP battery-based, making complete sense for cost control and consistency with what China ships to the European market.

No one outside Tesla knows anything about any of this (well, certain regulatory and testing centers may know...)
Tesla isn't saying yet, and the blogs will do what they do.....clickbait !!

As an update, Tesla may be planning to offer an LFP-based MY 'Standard Range' variant to help manage their backlog.
They did it before when the M3 backlog was nuts, offering order holders the lower range option and a lower cost.

This would potentially mitigate 4680 supply issues and keep Fremont building MY v1.0 chassis cars for a while.

As always, the above is OPINION. We await Tesla's reveal.

 

[BGOwner]

As an update, Tesla may be planning to offer an LFP-based MY 'Standard Range' variant to help manage their backlog.
They did it before when the M3 backlog was nuts, offering order holders the lower range option and a lower cost.

This would potentially mitigate 4680 supply issues and keep Fremont building MY v1.0 chassis cars for a while.

As always, the above is OPINION. We await Tesla's reveal.

Or is it a 2170 SR MY?

Here is Bearded Tesla Guy’s thoughts with some calculations

 

[tgarg]

Wild theory:

4680 are in limited quantity. Tesla decides to maximize profit and use them for the "standard range" variant ONLY which is what we saw in the new EPA.

Fremont model Y continues producing LR and MYP without any interruption till they scale up 4680 production.

 

[tangible1]

As an update, Tesla may be planning to offer an LFP-based MY 'Standard Range' variant to help manage their backlog.
They did it before when the M3 backlog was nuts, offering order holders the lower range option and a lower cost.

This would potentially mitigate 4680 supply issues and keep Fremont building MY v1.0 chassis cars for a while.

Or is it a 2170 SR MY?

Here is Bearded Tesla Guy’s thoughts with some calculations

Which is cheaper - 2170 from Panasonic / Neveda, or LFP from CATL China? That may tell the tale.

Who knows? Only Tesla

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Its going to be hilarious if this is the car which will be shipping out of texas and the MYP and MYLR will both remain in fremont for the time being,.

 

[BGOwner]

Its going to be hilarious if this is the car which will be shipping out of texas and the MYP and MYLR will both remain in fremont for the time being,.

I don’t think that is likely. They have not even started to sell them yet. Austin would be sitting around for awhile waiting for the orders to start. It took the MYLR awhile to make it more than a small part of Fremont, and they opened Shanghai

 

[SilverSp33d3r]

I don’t think that is likely. They have not even started to sell them yet. Austin would be sitting around for awhile waiting for the orders to start. It took the MYLR awhile to make it more than a small part of Fremont, and they opened Shanghai

Do you really think if Tesla offered a lower cost Model Y the orders wouldn’t flood in beyond capacity?

 

[BGOwner]

Do you really think if Tesla offered a lower cost Model Y the orders wouldn’t flood in beyond capacity?

I do. But do you think people will cancel their LR for it? If not, say about 1/4 of new MY buyers will take it. Still, I don’t think it will take all of Austin, nor do I think it will have 4680s.

But, we will know, when we know. Tesla will keep us guessing

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Interesting development indeed.
Or another piece of info to speculate about the hell out of 4680.
New Tesla Model Y Version Emerges On EPA's List: But What Is It?

Given the range on that new model is LESS than the existing MYLR, I think we're looking at a future-slot for a new base model of the Y, not any new-and-improved MYLR.

My guess is it's a dual-motor, standard-range option - maybe with updated LFP pack

Another hare-brained idea would be they go after the massive MYLR backlog by offering a 2170 based dual motor 279 range base model for the masses out of Fremont while getting up the ramp on 4680 premium models.

 

[Destiny1701]

Well definitely a let down for LR and P order holders.

 

[HELL YEAH!]

I went to the Tesla store today to check out the model Y in person. I ordered on 2/08 without ever physically seeing one or even a test drive. While I was there I asked about my order and he looked it up for me. He said it will be built this coming Friday 3/18. From the beginning my EDD has always been 3/15-3/31 so if Friday holds up I should take delivery around 3/23 (just a guess) which is spot on for the EDD. I haven’t received a VIN yet but expect that shortly.