Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Yperformance]

Now that is very interesting and logical. Like to hear more about this. Model Y Performance money is burning a hole in my pocket. Any thoughts on new colors?

 

[Yperformance]

There are way to many roomers about the rollout from Giga Texas and the relationship with Fremont. In common with many others this information is vital in making a decision to order a new model y and it's derivatives. It makes Tesla look unprofessional that they have not handled this especially when buyers are spending upwards of S 70,000. They have dangled the carrot of 4680 and higher regidity and lower weight now it's time to provide the timeline and from where and what you will get for your money.

 

[glide]

Uhhhh…wut?

 

[DayTrippin]

I assume by "roomers" you mean rumors? While we, as customers, would like this info, it would be stupid for Tesla to provide it anytime soon. It could have an immediate impact on current configuration sales. They are already selling all they can hence the continuing price increases.

So I would like to clear out all my old inventory if possible before rolling out a new version which might materially hurt my sales of the current model. This change would be a big one for many people and they might just keep putting their orders on hold. Nobody really knows what version will get it first anyway. Maybe it will just be the MYP.

This was a hot topic when I ordered my Y last year and I thought about holding out for the new battery tech. So glad I didn't wait. There is so much speculation around this topic I would make absolutely no buying decision based on rumors. IF I didn't like the current model that was being produced, I wouldn't order it. It is just too much of a guessing game to know when they will finally roll it out, what models, and to what region of the US.

The basic Y is a pretty damn good car in its current configuration and the upgrades won't matter to the vast majority of people anyway. Not saying they aren't important, but the many people are illiterate about the advantages.

 

[Yperformance]

Fair point.

 

[Sludog]

I talked to my SA today. He told me that Austin VINs won’t be released until Fremont is also installing the 4680 packs. He said it will all happen in unison. This makes sense but I have not hear of this before. He said his guess is end of May.

Sounds like something a SA would say when they are tired of putting orders on hold once a Fremont vin was issued to someone who is holding out for Austin build.

 

[Mrbrock]

Well, at least your SA said he 'guessed'.
That's the best that can be said of his statement.

Both Fremont and Austin will be making 4680-based MY v2.0 chassis.
Those chassis will not be restricted just to MYP or to just MYLR, they'll used be for all variants
NOTE: Tesla has incentive to do so - they save $$$ costs on the v2.0 and can make them faster.
Both factories will implement the new chassis build at roughly same the same time, but not exactly at the same time.

Fremont has had stacks of front megacasts sitting out in the open for months. They WILL be transitioning soon.
Austin is purportedly making all chassis 4680-based from it's start, and the batteries are coming as finished structural packs from Kato Road.
In fact, shipping containers for the packs can be seen thru the windows in early morning drone videos by Joe Tegtmeyer.
Austin is gearing up to make batteries - but they are not ready yet - it's all coming from Kato Road.

Nothing is confirmed until first deliveries from Austin are made and reviewed, and the new specs are published by Tesla from their re-certifications of the new build.
NOTE: It appears a truckload of 9 those new builds went out 2 weeks ago for certification.
Until those specs are published, all blogs are BS and this post is OPINION based on observations and Tesla statements over many months.

Interesting but if they switch as you suggest, where are the 300 battery packs a day Tesla will need for Fremont to switch to 4680? That’s 270000 4680 cells a day for Fremont. I don’t think Tesla would switch if they dropped 90% capacity until battery production can ramp up.

And that truckload likely came from Fremont with an Austin stop for whatever reason. That truckload had MYP which exactly 0 have been seen outside of Austin. If they were sending for certification, there is no reason to have different colors. Austin has only produced blue and black LR so far. Makes the origins of that truckload suspicious.

 

[kabin]

Unfortunately, communication isn't Tesla's strong point.

 

[Wigglesworth]

Yep, SA don’t know *sugar* that they don’t read online like us. I think we hear about changes before they do.

Edit - oops nevermind, I misread. Deleting because yes, you are correct. SA's definitely don't know any more than anyone who pays attention to the online discussion. I don't understand why so many feel the need to just blatantly make stuff up as if they have any meaningful source of inside info. Sales teams are very intentionally kept in the dark about any details of future plans. Anything they say is pure speculation. For some, it might be relatively informed speculation, sure, but it's still just speculation. But any time a SA makes some kind of definitive claim about a major development that you cant already find posted about on this forum, they are full of it.

 

[Brolan]

That does bring up a good point. We are all assuming when 4680 production starts in Texas they will immediately deliver them to customers. Now we hear they may just store them until Fremont is ready for 4680. That solves a lot of the issues with switching over and selling two different versions of the MY at the same time. It makes sense.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I think the odds of storing finished cars from the Texas plant till Fremont spins up are somewhere between 0 and nothing.

Texas is shipping very soon. There might be an initial batch to get examples to dealers for demos. But Tesla is not gonna pumping out thousands of cars in Texas and storing them so they can avoid having two slightly different models going to customers - it's against Teslas entire corporate ethos of moving lean and fast and not worrying about offending customers with sudden arbitrary unannounced changes.

I do agree that we might see Fremont moving to 4680 not long after Texas gets rolling. Hard to judge it. It'll be nice when both factories are pumping out cars with the somewhat-lighter, possibly longer-lasting and easier-to-make battery pack

 

[tangible1]

I think the odds of storing finished cars from the Texas plant till Fremont spins up are somewhere between 0 and nothing.

Texas is shipping very soon. There might be an initial batch to get examples to dealers for demos. But Tesla is not gonna pumping out thousands of cars in Texas and storing them so they can avoid having two slightly different models going to customers - it's against Teslas entire corporate ethos of moving lean and fast and not worrying about offending customers with sudden arbitrary unannounced changes.

I do agree that we might see Fremont moving to 4680 not long after Texas gets rolling. Hard to judge it. It'll be nice when both factories are pumping out cars with the somewhat-lighter, possibly longer-lasting and easier-to-make battery pack

There are way to many roomers about the rollout from Giga Texas and the relationship with Fremont. In common with many others this information is vital in making a decision to order a new model y and it's derivatives. It makes Tesla look unprofessional that they have not handled this especially when buyers are spending upwards of S 70,000. They have dangled the carrot of 4680 and higher regidity and lower weight now it's time to provide the timeline and from where and what you will get for your money.

Tesla has a MY order backlog 10 months deep. What they're doing and when has little material effect on their order book, especially as gas prices go to the moon.
By not saying, they ramp up the blogs and keep the rumor party going.
They spend zero $$ on ads and marketing, get major publicity, and orders keep coming in over the transom, but it's unprofessional?
Huh, it's working for them.....

 

[Destiny1701]

Guys…need a slap…I have my blue/black MYP order on hold waiting patiently for some sort of movement on 4680. Ordered mid Feb. However yest I went to my local Tesla SC around 4pm for my cousin who was doing his paperwork for his M3LR pickup next Wednesday. And lo and behold…I’ve never in my 6 yrs of Tesla ownership seen the sales area so packed! Liteallly there were 35-40 people all waiting for a chance to sit in a display MY or M3 and orders were flowing off the charts. There were also families sitting in the parking area or walking around various models waiting to get inside. Never seen this much excitement for teslas since model 3 and model Y first order day.

I went up to an experienced sales SC I’ve known for a few years now and he said ‘bro..it’s been like this for the last 10 days now…not just Saturday..every day is the same! It’s insane. Ever since gas prices rocketed up, everyone’s had enough’. I then told him about my MYP order and that my original EDD was in fact the 12th March next day, but I put it on hold last week.

He then said ‘listen I’ve known you quite a while bro so no sales bs…the EDD’s are about to get a lot worst. I checked in with my colleagues at various SC’s around Can and US and all are saying the same..it’s a madhouse for at least a 2 weeks straight. If you want to hold out for a 4680 that’s your choice man, but even now if you take your account off ‘hold’ status, it will be around May for delivery now..not even April. I suspect Perf Y is going to hit June any day now…LR going to hit 2023 of this keeps up as 80% of orders are LR’.

So he suggested I remove the hold, and see what happens. It will be after Austin Giga day April 7th anyway so will know more. I can always rehold if I still don’t hear anything abt 4680 or there are delays.

My first reason for holding out is the possibility of some higher range due to weight savings. That and future proofing any sort of enhancements to power for the 4680’s only while ‘legacy’ 2170’s are left out. That’s classic Tesla.

Should I release it? Again I have never seen sales so robust for Tesla…ever. And maybe I’m overthinking this 2170vs4680 thing but I still don’t want to rush into a 2170 due to what I saw. But my finger is itching to just get it over with and drive whatever comes…argh..

 

[garumaru]

Interesting development indeed.
Or another piece of info to speculate about the hell out of 4680.
New Tesla Model Y Version Emerges On EPA's List: But What Is It?

 

[BGOwner]

Interesting development indeed.
Or another piece of info to speculate about the hell out of 4680.
New Tesla Model Y Version Emerges On EPA's List: But What Is It?

I saw that, notice the range is only 279.

 

[Destiny1701]

Interesting development indeed.
Or another piece of info to speculate about the hell out of 4680.
New Tesla Model Y Version Emerges On EPA's List: But What Is It?

Basically what tesla did with the MS in 2019/2020…they had a long range + variant and a regular long range version which was to get rid of legacy battery packs I suspect. The Performance was always the highest trim but there were 3 versions of the Model S for a small period of time until they just stopped the + designation and just offered one ‘long range …which was the new higher mileage only.

No one knows tesla logic…

 

[BMWY]

That does bring up a good point. We are all assuming when 4680 production starts in Texas they will immediately deliver them to customers. Now we hear they may just store them until Fremont is ready for 4680. That solves a lot of the issues with switching over and selling two different versions of the MY at the same time. It makes sense.

Store them where? That's not how production works at scale...

 

[advocate8]

Now that is very interesting and logical. Like to hear more about this. Model Y Performance money is burning a hole in my pocket. Any thoughts on new colors?

Guys…need a slap…I have my blue/black MYP order on hold waiting patiently for some sort of movement on 4680. Ordered mid Feb. However yest I went to my local Tesla SC around 4pm for my cousin who was doing his paperwork for his M3LR pickup next Wednesday. And lo and behold…I’ve never in my 6 yrs of Tesla ownership seen the sales area so packed! Liteallly there were 35-40 people all waiting for a chance to sit in a display MY or M3 and orders were flowing off the charts. There were also families sitting in the parking area or walking around various models waiting to get inside. Never seen this much excitement for teslas since model 3 and model Y first order day.

I went up to an experienced sales SC I’ve known for a few years now and he said ‘bro..it’s been like this for the last 10 days now…not just Saturday..every day is the same! It’s insane. Ever since gas prices rocketed up, everyone’s had enough’. I then told him about my MYP order and that my original EDD was in fact the 12th March next day, but I put it on hold last week.

He then said ‘listen I’ve known you quite a while bro so no sales bs…the EDD’s are about to get a lot worst. I checked in with my colleagues at various SC’s around Can and US and all are saying the same..it’s a madhouse for at least a 2 weeks straight. If you want to hold out for a 4680 that’s your choice man, but even now if you take your account off ‘hold’ status, it will be around May for delivery now..not even April. I suspect Perf Y is going to hit June any day now…LR going to hit 2023 of this keeps up as 80% of orders are LR’.

So he suggested I remove the hold, and see what happens. It will be after Austin Giga day April 7th anyway so will know more. I can always rehold if I still don’t hear anything abt 4680 or there are delays.

My first reason for holding out is the possibility of some higher range due to weight savings. That and future proofing any sort of enhancements to power for the 4680’s only while ‘legacy’ 2170’s are left out. That’s classic Tesla.

Should I release it? Again I have never seen sales so robust for Tesla…ever. And maybe I’m overthinking this 2170vs4680 thing but I still don’t want to rush into a 2170 due to what I saw. But my finger is itching to just get it over with and drive whatever comes…argh..

Release, get the car and stay here watching the developments and order another if and when it’s clear 1) 4680 is guaranteed and 2) 4680 is actually worth the effort.
It may be huge improvement, may be next to nothing or somewhere in the middle that still isn’t worth worrying about. You will be operating then with solid info rather than our wild guesses, and from a position of strength as you’ll already have a damned good car.
Of course I don’t know your financials, but you could surely flip the 1st MYP when you got the second and for good money given the even greater demand you describe.
just my 2 cents, good luck with decision.

 

[afscotch]

Guys…need a slap…I have my blue/black MYP order on hold waiting patiently for some sort of movement on 4680. Ordered mid Feb. However yest I went to my local Tesla SC around 4pm for my cousin who was doing his paperwork for his M3LR pickup next Wednesday. And lo and behold…I’ve never in my 6 yrs of Tesla ownership seen the sales area so packed! Liteallly there were 35-40 people all waiting for a chance to sit in a display MY or M3 and orders were flowing off the charts. There were also families sitting in the parking area or walking around various models waiting to get inside. Never seen this much excitement for teslas since model 3 and model Y first order day.

I went up to an experienced sales SC I’ve known for a few years now and he said ‘bro..it’s been like this for the last 10 days now…not just Saturday..every day is the same! It’s insane. Ever since gas prices rocketed up, everyone’s had enough’. I then told him about my MYP order and that my original EDD was in fact the 12th March next day, but I put it on hold last week.

He then said ‘listen I’ve known you quite a while bro so no sales bs…the EDD’s are about to get a lot worst. I checked in with my colleagues at various SC’s around Can and US and all are saying the same..it’s a madhouse for at least a 2 weeks straight. If you want to hold out for a 4680 that’s your choice man, but even now if you take your account off ‘hold’ status, it will be around May for delivery now..not even April. I suspect Perf Y is going to hit June any day now…LR going to hit 2023 of this keeps up as 80% of orders are LR’.

So he suggested I remove the hold, and see what happens. It will be after Austin Giga day April 7th anyway so will know more. I can always rehold if I still don’t hear anything abt 4680 or there are delays.

My first reason for holding out is the possibility of some higher range due to weight savings. That and future proofing any sort of enhancements to power for the 4680’s only while ‘legacy’ 2170’s are left out. That’s classic Tesla.

Should I release it? Again I have never seen sales so robust for Tesla…ever. And maybe I’m overthinking this 2170vs4680 thing but I still don’t want to rush into a 2170 due to what I saw. But my finger is itching to just get it over with and drive whatever comes…argh..

Delays will get worse because Fremont will be retooling, or parts issues or what? Adding to the backlog doesn't induce delays at the front-end.

 

[advocate8]

Basically what tesla did with the MS in 2019/2020…they had a long range + variant and a regular long range version which was to get rid of legacy battery packs I suspect. The Performance was always the highest trim but there were 3 versions of the Model S for a small period of time until they just stopped the + designation and just offered one ‘long range …which was the new higher mileage only.

No one knows tesla logic…

But they’re not in a hurry to give away the current batteries, really. They have plenty of cars to sell at higher prices than some non-LR trim.
This is a weird one. Oh wait... it must be the fabled iron-battery, interim-structural-pack version!
But seriously, no rational reason for this leaps to mind unless their modeling showed an opportunity at some point late in year begin to use all the capacity of the two plants to offer something at a lower price point.
The cars have become much more expensive, obviously. Now same as base early Model S (not counting inflation).
And if this is what they were thinking, they would have began working on that waaaayyy before before the Ukraine invasion and gas prices created a scenario with even more demand. If that’s the case, it may not be viable on the timetable they thought.