( This is not in any way aimed at you
@garreth64 - nice spec by the way, saw one at Delivery launch at Duxford, looked amazing )
If the time frame is narrowing from the start. I'd agree, yes it is an increased level of certainty. But unfortunately not how you'd like to hope it is.
I'd decode the above as follows......
Jun 04-30 = At the moment; Possible in this time frame if no delaying factors
Jun 20-30 = You definitely won't be getting it before 20th June
Jun 23-30 = You definitely won't be getting it before 23th June
Jun 25-30 = You definitely won't be getting it before 25th June.... and your chances of getting by the 30th are slimming day by day. Likely the estimate is going to move to something wider later on, based on the factory production situation.
After hundreds of pages of "What was your order date?", "What is your spec?", "What is your EDD?", "Update: My EDD is exactly the same still.". "I called Tesla/Lex again today and they still don't know", we aren't really getting anywhere except more frustrated.
I'd hazard a guess that
currently your Delivery date will be about 4 months (+/- 1 month) after you ordered + the number of days the Shanghai Giga factory is closed. Assuming you haven't messed about with your cars spec. You may get lucky or not but I reckon that'll be about right.
I can't see a reason why Tesla would deliberately not put cars on a ship in the first month of a quarter either. That makes no financial sense at all. Why would they just leave a few thousand cars parked getting dirty for a month because "they don't ship in the first month of the quarter"? Thats money that could be in their bank. Factories want a smooth and steady output without inventory building up. Cars shipped and sold at the start of the quarter is the same as cars shipped and sold at the end of a quarter in terms of numbers sold. So not shipping on purpose just doesn't make any business sense. Possibly if it is happening its due to ship availability or something else.
We all know the delays are purely due to the China factory shutdown and associated suppliers.
Until you get matched with a vehicle and your VIN assigned, it doesn't matter what EDD you have, what ship sailed when and from where, because your car might not even be on it!
EDD is a best guess. That's all it is. Especially right now. It's a shame it can't be fixed and 100% accurate and of course extremely frustrating when it changes.
Building to order is the way to go. Guessing specs and building in batches and trying to match orders en-route is pure idiocy, same as rushing for Quarter end results ! They know what people have ordered, so just build those cars (in batches if you like but at least you're building the cars you're definitely going to sell)
I hope you all get your cars as soon as possible. This part of the process is kind of exciting and in the current situation - frustrating as hell at the same time.
In the meantime to take your minds off refreshing your order pages, if you want to ask any questions to someone who has already had the car for 3 months now, feel free to ask away and I'll give you my honest views, thoughts, insights.
Cheers !
