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My guess will be that at some point we'll be 'paying as we go' - all those nice ANPR camera's everywhere will be able to pick up where we've been, or cars will transmit to a server somewhere how many miles have been done etc etc - Not sure on the cost, I don't think it'll be in the same style as current as an MYP emits the same amount of nothingness than an MYLR. Can't see it coming before 2025 but may be wrong....
Anyone want some lotto numbers lol!

Anyway - got VRN this morning, insurance sorted - just need the invite to pay for the car now 😁
 
I've just read that these changes will retrospectively apply to any EV cars sold after 2017. Spoken to my lease company who have said that any increase in road tax will just be invoiced to me.
But it’s not just new EVs that will have to pay road tax from 2025: electric carsfirst registered from April 2017 will have the £165 fee applied to them retrospectively, ending the exemption they had previously benefited from.

The £355 annual ‘Expensive Car Supplement’, which applies to cars that cost £40,000 or more from new, will also be applied to EVs from April 2025 – although this only applies to EVs sold from that date – it is not a retrospective charge like the standard VED fee. The Expensive Car Supplement runs for five years, from the second to the sixth year of a car’s life, and will add a £2,130 tax burden to owners of expensive EVs.

From carwow website
 
But it’s not just new EVs that will have to pay road tax from 2025: electric carsfirst registered from April 2017 will have the £165 fee applied to them retrospectively, ending the exemption they had previously benefited from.

The £355 annual ‘Expensive Car Supplement’, which applies to cars that cost £40,000 or more from new, will also be applied to EVs from April 2025 – although this only applies to EVs sold from that date – it is not a retrospective charge like the standard VED fee. The Expensive Car Supplement runs for five years, from the second to the sixth year of a car’s life, and will add a £2,130 tax burden to owners of expensive EVs.

From carwow website
I’m pretty pleased with that element - it could have been a lot worse and I also plan to keep my car for a long time so will help with residual values in the future
 
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Thanks for the responses. I agree, it is very hard to know, it is more what people think will happen. I want to think that it would still be more than 50% of its value new, but maybe this is wishful thinking. In addition to the economy landscape, a lot will depend on whether Tesla cars are still the EVs of choice in 4 years time.
 
But it’s not just new EVs that will have to pay road tax from 2025: electric carsfirst registered from April 2017 will have the £165 fee applied to them retrospectively, ending the exemption they had previously benefited from.

The £355 annual ‘Expensive Car Supplement’, which applies to cars that cost £40,000 or more from new, will also be applied to EVs from April 2025 – although this only applies to EVs sold from that date – it is not a retrospective charge like the standard VED fee. The Expensive Car Supplement runs for five years, from the second to the sixth year of a car’s life, and will add a £2,130 tax burden to owners of expensive EVs.

From carwow website
I don’t believe “retrospective” is the right term. It’s just electric vehicles sold before 2025 will be pay standard VED rates from 2025. I think.
 
I want to think that it would still be more than 50%
My '17 Model X 90D that's done 40,000* miles was valued at £57k about six weeks ago. It was £108k when ordered around Christmas (I blame the booze) '16. The recent valuation was during a spike in prices, where valuations were going up. So it's about 50% after five years.

The other points you raise are good ones. What happens if Elon goes even more crazy, screws up Tesla, and we can't get the things serviced? What if nuclear armageddon starts courtesy of Vlad & Vlod? What if solid state batteries finally reach a manufacturing breakthrough, and new cars on the market have 2x the range? There's just way too many things that are way too hard to predict, IMO. I guess look at the final balloon payments on finance plans, because those are decided by professionals rather than the ramblings of a muppet like myself :)

* In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only driving
 
All good points and good insight on your Model X, thank you.

I have looked at the final payments and they are quite low but had interpreted them as being conservative due to the uncertainty. But your Model X experience shows me that they are probably not that bad.
My '17 Model X 90D that's done 40,000* miles was valued at £57k about six weeks ago. It was £108k when ordered around Christmas (I blame the booze) '16. The recent valuation was during a spike in prices, where valuations were going up. So it's about 50% after five years.

The other points you raise are good ones. What happens if Elon goes even more crazy, screws up Tesla, and we can't get the things serviced? What if nuclear armageddon starts courtesy of Vlad & Vlod? What if solid state batteries finally reach a manufacturing breakthrough, and new cars on the market have 2x the range? There's just way too many things that are way too hard to predict, IMO. I guess look at the final balloon payments on finance plans, because those are decided by professionals rather than the ramblings of a muppet like myself :)

* In the grim darkness of the near future, there is only driving