Translation is you don't think it should last indefinitely, just long enough to make sure that you get it. The Model 3 should be compelling enough of a car that people would want it with or without this incentive, Musk has already said that at the $35,000 entry price it will be nicer than any other car at that price range. If someone wants it they will find a way to save up and buy it without the Feds kicking in $7500. We already see in threads about how people will pay for it, people who earn less than the cost of the car per year and think it's a smart move to buy one. It's not.
You're correct that I think it should last long enough for me to get it
Let me preface my next comment by saying that I've reserved 2 Model 3's on the first day, and am eagerly looking forward to the car. I've reserved a second for a family member.
I don't believe the $35,000 entry level price is going to be compelling enough for most people. 215 miles of range just isn't enough. Here are some reasons why:
1) The average car on the road today is 12 years old. The warranty on the batteries is 10 years and from what I've read, while it depends on a number of factors, Tesla considers them to be defective if they lose more than 20% of their capacity in that time. So, if you intend on using the car over the 10 years, you not only need to consider initial range, but range throughout the life of your ownership of the car. You're now at 80% of stated value, or ~170 miles.
2) If you drive on highways faster than 65 mph, or have a headwind, you lose range. I drive a lot on highways where the speed limit is 70mph, which results in people going 75mph easily. Right away, I won't get the full range due to this. If you have 10mph of wind, now I'm effectively driving at 85mph for drag calculations and I get even less mileage. Let's consider this a 10-20% loss based on the charts here:
Model S Efficiency and Range
3) If it's in the winter, I have to use power to heat the cabin and seats. There is another 15% lost based on the same link.
Between those factors, I consider the base model to be not 215 miles, but maybe closer to 110-130 miles of range in a
worst case scenario after 10 years of ownership. My current car gives me about 325-350 miles of range on gas, and if conditions (mentioned above) occur, I might only drop to 275-300 in the same worst case scenario, also after 10 years of ownership.
The only way that the Model 3, for someone like me, is compelling enough, is if they offer an upgrade with 50% more range at 300+ miles. I can make it work with that, but the price after the tax credit still needs to be lower. If the AWD + range upgrade gets me 300+ miles (I'm hoping 320 miles with extra regenerative breaking, but more battery weight) and it costs $44k out the door, it's a bit more than I can justify on a car. If I get the $7,500 tax credit, it works out to under $37k and I can justify it.
There are tons of benefits to the car despite my sour opinion of electric vehicle range in bad conditions and assuming I keep the car for 10+ years. I believe that in most normal conditions, I'll have enough range, but for someone like me who does a lot of highway driving, the extra range is going to be crucial, but there is still a substantial premium in the price based on the range of the car over the life of my intended ownership and in the conditions I'll be driving it in. (I put about 20k miles/year on my car for what it's worth) I am a fairly early adopter of technologies too, and so I am excited about the car (especially autopilot for my often mundane highway driving), but my specific situation requires me to consider more variables than I think most will be thinking about when they buy the car.
