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Politics - Quarantine Thread

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Elon Musk needs to open a factory in the Republic of Texas and move out of the Socialist State of California!

Lol good one...supporting an economy mostly funded by oil and fracking would be a nice look for Tesla. Also remember, our idiotic Government tries to handicap Tesla every way they can. Can't imagine wanting to reward them.

Texas thrives because of oil, gas, and lots of cheap land. NOT intelligent leadership. In 10-20 years when Texas cities are as overpopulated as California's, the education system woefully underfunded and unable to keep up, and the oil/gas industry in steady decline....I shudder to imagine what this state will look like.
 
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Lol good one...supporting an economy mostly funded by oil and fracking would be a nice look for Tesla. Also remember, our idiotic Government tries to handicap Tesla every way they can. Can't imagine wanting to reward them.

Texas thrives because of oil, gas, and lots of cheap land. NOT intelligent leadership.

Actually, I could see Tesla considering opening a factory there — using the factory investment as leverage for opening up the state for direct sales.
 
My guess is China's numbers are not even close to factual and Russia has far less international travel than NYC and other American hot spots. Some European countries were hit harder than we were when you take population size into consideration. Does China have a vendetta against them too or were they randomly selected? I'm not aware. Conspiracies are fun though.
 
Good post.

The big problem is, that we need to shelter in place and social distance enough the it “feels” like it’s not needed. Like you pointed out that hospitals have excess capacity because it’s working.

It seems so odd I’ve minute he is getting masks and building ventilators and the next ranting about shelter in place.

If the hospitals are not nearly full there is no end to the crono19. The story that demanded we shut down was we needed to keep hospitals from overfilling.
The other story was that herd immunity was the only answer. Now we are instead aimed at not allowing anyone anywhere to get the flu. This is ridiculous, Herd immunity is the only way out. Waiting for a year to get out of this story line is not smart.
 
If the hospitals are not nearly full there is no end to the crono19. The story that demanded we shut down was we needed to keep hospitals from overfilling.
The other story was that herd immunity was the only answer. Now we are instead aimed at not allowing anyone anywhere to get the flu. This is ridiculous, Herd immunity is the only way out. Waiting for a year to get out of this story line is not smart.

I think herd immunity is unrealistic. It is too lethal. My guess is, a less lethal strain will evolve and we’ll gain heard immunity with that. That’s basically what happened in 1918. Took 3 years to get through that. As many as 100 Million died. 33% infected. That was with social distancing and lock downs. But probably not as well done as today.

Spanish flu - Wikipedia
 
If the hospitals are not nearly full there is no end to the crono19. The story that demanded we shut down was we needed to keep hospitals from overfilling.
The other story was that herd immunity was the only answer. Now we are instead aimed at not allowing anyone anywhere to get the flu. This is ridiculous, Herd immunity is the only way out. Waiting for a year to get out of this story line is not smart.

Herd immunity was forecast to need 50 to 60% infection rate.

With 331M population and average 2.4% mortality rate, that equates to 4M to 5M dead.
 
...If there ever is a scientific study that can show that sheltering in place actually has a material, positive effect on stopping the spread of a disease that is deadly, that would be different...

It doesn't stop but it does slow down so your first responders won't be overwhelmed with all cases at once.

Wuhan proved it. 76 days of lockdown and it's over!
 
...“I think the people are going to be very angry about this and are very angry. It’s like somebody should be...

Crying lack of freedom except gunners have been able to bring their guns inside the Michigan Capitol building one day after Elon's speech.

It would be nice if Elon could say that you can be angry but please keep your guns at home!



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...This is not democratic. This is not freedom. Give people back their goddamn freedom.”...

I still don't understand what's the motive here when Tesla is qualified by the Federal and State as an essential business.

It did communicate that in an e-mail to its employees but then it agreed with the local county to shutdown.

Georgia Governor Kemp ordered to re-open the business while local government does not like that but they cannot overrule the higher order from the state.

What counts is the order from Federal and State while local county government can wish all they want but they are overruled!

Why bother shutting down then incite the public for violence?
 
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I wonder if more people will die from COVID-19 or the impact of stay at home orders.
Just staying at home means less people die of traffic accidents.

But right now COVID-19 is killing people on droves.

For example, the Coroner who covers Albany, GA estimates he had as many deaths in April as he normally gets in 6 months.
 
Herd immunity was forecast to need 50 to 60% infection rate.

With 331M population and average 2.4% mortality rate, that equates to 4M to 5M dead.

I wish we had definitive information. We have indications and stats that will tell you anything you want to see. A couple of interesting issues. Why do prisoners and the homeless skate through will very few symptoms? What is the actual infection rate? There are areas that claim very high rates of being exposed. I have seen rates on the morbidity chart all the way down to .03 and, higher than you show.
So we are left with impressions, (since there is no data that is impeccable) my impression is different than yours.
I will put money on the bet that the rate isn't half the figure you speak of. You want to go? The loser buys the winner a Cybertruck.
 
Just staying at home means less people die of traffic accidents.

But right now COVID-19 is killing people on droves.

For example, the Coroner who covers Albany, GA estimates he had as many deaths in April as he normally gets in 6 months.

What do you disagree with? You make good points about a thought provoking question. Government has a responsibility to protect citizens. The question should be asked because it is about the lives of people. Have government actions helped or harmed? Is there a point at which actions to protect become more harmful than the virus? I don’t know the answer, but I do know we should save as many lives as possible.
 
Herd immunity is the only way out.

That sounds like loser talk to me. We can beat this virus with TTI (Test/Trace/Isolate). Let's get to it, like real red-blooded Americans. It's absolutely possible to suppress it so community transmission is no longer an issue.

My guess is, a less lethal strain will evolve and we’ll gain herd immunity with that. That’s basically what happened in 1918.

Influenza is not equal to coronavirus. Coronavirus has RNA proofreading mechanisms in its polymerase, which mean that the mutation rate is much much slower than influenza.

With 331M population and average 2.4% mortality rate, that equates to 4M to 5M dead.

While the fatality rate is extremely high, and unacceptably high, it isn't quite that high. Most experts believe it is between 0.5% and 1.5% IFR. Anywhere in that range is terrible. It's almost certainly not 2.4% unless the hospital system collapses, or you're talking about a different demographic than the US.

The ~1% number - that's where the 2.2 million dead number came from (in an unmitigated epidemic).

More to the point for this thread, I don't understand WTF Elon is doing with all this tweeting. It's terrible, not a good look, he seems to be mostly wrong, and it's not good for Tesla.

I think there's plenty of room for legitimate debate about HOW to best execute a lockdown, and which activities to limit. I think it's fine to discuss how to prevent hospitals from collapsing due to lack of elective procedures. I think it's tragic that there is a lot of excess mortality because some people are NOT GOING to the hospital when they should be (appendicitis, infection, heart attack, injury, etc.). There are lots of problems with a lockdown - no one wants it. But Elon's not helping his case here, and he's NOT putting these legitimate issues front and center. He just seems to want his factory open, which is awful.

Most of these problems are fixed by building Testing, Tracing, and Isolation/Quarantine infrastructure. We MUST have rapid, widely available testing for all medical professionals, and anyone interacting with the health system, to be able to keep it clean. Otherwise those people going in for elective procedures will be dying of coronavirus. Or the people with appendicitis or other medical issues will be dying of coronavirus.

Elon is also wrong about people not being allowed out of their homes. That completely mischaracterizes the limitations. You're basically allowed to do anything you want do do, as long as it is safe for you and others.

Anyway, none of these issues are fixed by going back to work and pretending the problem doesn't exist. It's a huge problem. It's not some fabrication of politicians. There are very few winners in this debacle. We should have acted 6 weeks earlier, when it was obvious the virus was spreading in the US in late January, and we'd be done now. But we didn't, so here we are.

I don't know what is wrong with Elon, but he is probably on the spectrum.

Amazon is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars just on testing this quarter, and about $4 billion in total on making sure their workers and customers are protected from coronavirus. How much is Tesla planning to spend? Why don't they start working on spending tens of millions to acquire rapid testing equipment and test kits, for on site test, purchasing PPE, establishing robust infection control procedures, etc. This virus is not f**king around. You can't have 10k people in a factory practicing social distancing and wearing PPE, and that's all you do. It'll spread like wildfire.

Elon's time would be better spent investing in protecting the lives of his employees. It's going to be a very bad look if any of his employees die (there are probably about 10-20 of them at the factory who are in mortal danger). And not just a bad look - it'll be tragic, and totally preventable.
 
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