Potential BOLT customers being suctioned up by Tesla !

[Zoomit]

I should also add that the effect of drag increases as a square of speed, specifically the formula is: Force due to Drag = Cd x Frontal Area x Air Density x Speed^2

So the drag force at 70 mph is over twice that while traveling 48 mph. --> (70*70)/(48*48) = 2.1

 

[musicious]

The Bolt is just a repurposed electric version of the Chevy Sonic, it was not created with low COD and range/efficiency as its purpose, as others said they likely are just trying to meet some regulatory requirement hence the limited 30k/yr production vs the 500k/yr tesla model 3 target by 2020.

 

[Scott Franco]

I am on the M3 waitlist but will also exchange my Leaf for a bolt at the end of the year if I can, both leases. The bolt needs to charge at 100kW minimum, and I believe GM will be forced to offer that eventually. A car that has twice the battery but the same charge rate as a current car (50kW) is a local car, abet a pretty good local car.

With that fixed, I would probably buy, not lease the next bolt. We are a two EV family, so M3 for me, and a hatchback for my wife. The lease expiration times match up, so if I lease a bolt, I can rotate it to my wife when the M3 comes.

 

[Roamer]

Does GM actually want to sell the Bolt ? I see it more as a product they don't want to sell but have to have in their vehicle line up.

GM only wants to sell things that make a large profit margin and the GM dealers want that even more. I don't see a big marketing push from GM. They really don't want to have to build or sell this car. It will be a stepchild.

GM sells more cars every month than Tesla has Model three preorders. They are not serious about EV cars.

 

[techmaven]

I think GM will sell out of their production of the Bolt easily. I hope they do for the overall sake of sustainable transport.

I still think it is important to draw the right distinctions between what GM is doing and what Tesla is doing, primarily to spur the other automakers into doing the right things and well as dispel FUD surrounding Tesla. The big automakers still treat EVs as a curiosity that a few token eco crazies buy but won't be mainstream. It is easy without the strong and successful presence of Tesla to backslide.

Personally, I have a hard time buying a GM product and I've been contemplating it for quite a while. The despicable corporate actions, between knowingly letting people go to jail for involuntary manslaughter due to a known defect in your vehicles, to actively campaigning against Tesla's direct sales exemptions in various states makes it very difficult to own a GM product right now. Maybe some day. VAG is also in a timeout box for me.

 

[Zoomit]

I just wanted to follow-up with more numbers. If we assume aero drag accounts for half the energy needed to move at highway speeds, a reasonable but general assumption, we can estimate how the two cars will compare.

Let's assume the same 60 kWh battery, same tire rolling resistance, and drivetrain losses.

Bolt EV data:
Cd = 0.312
Area = 25.8 ft^2

Model 3 data (my guesses):
Cd = 0.22 <-- this is what matters !!
Area = 23.5 ft^2

Multiplying and comparing the numbers shows that the Model 3 will have 64% of the aero drag of the Bolt EV. At highway speeds, that's an 18% efficiency improvement. That could equal an additional 30 miles for the Model 3.

 

[techmaven]

I should also add that the effect of drag increases as a square of speed, specifically the formula is: Force due to Drag = Cd x Frontal Area x Air Density x Speed^2

So the drag force at 70 mph is over twice that while traveling 48 mph. --> (70*70)/(48*48) = 2.1

To be fair, the EPA test does have a section that is 80 mph peak. The problem is that they spend too little time at those speeds so the avg mph is too low. Also, rolling resistance is still a big factor at highway speeds.

But I think clearly the Bolt is not designed for real Supercharger jumps or long distance travel cadence while the Model 3 definitely is designed for it. As a result, I think the Bolt was designed around CARB ZEV credits rather than real world uses. To achieve Type 3 classification to get 4 credits per car, they needed 200 miles of UDDS range. UDDS standard is slightly more lenient than EPA 5 cycle, but not nearly as bad as JC08 or NEDC. On the other hand, the Model 3 has to make real world Supercharger jumps in the winter with some battery degradation. If the Type III credits were for 160 miles of UDDS range, I think Chevy would have put in a smaller battery.

 

[brucet999]

Without fast charging infrastructure Bolt is not a very viable car IMO. I mean 200 mi rated range is good, but then what? For pure city or around driving 80 - 100 miles offered by Leaf/BMW, etc. is plenty, and you need another car to travel far.

I think you are being somewhat harsh toward Bolt. My S70 easily makes an 84 mi round trip from Huntington Beach to LAX, 100 mi round trip to the Getty museum, 125 mi round trip to cousins' house in Lake Elsinore or or 166-mile round trip to the Lake Arrowhead comfortably without charging; and so would the Bolt. Neither the new 100-mile Leaf nor BMW i3 nor VW eGolf can do those trips. I think Bolt will make local electric driving without range anxiety possible for many people who have been hesitant so far.

 

[R.S]

Hatchback storage access? Availability a couple of years earlier for non-Tesla owners and without maxing out options? Apple CarPlay and Android Auto? Initial reliability concerns?

So why not buy a Nissan Leaf instead? It ticks all those boxes, for 10 grand less. You could argue that there might be people that need 200 miles of range, but no supporting infrastructure, I might answer that there are people with 11 fingers (thumbs included).

 

[Zoomit]

If the Type III credits were for 160 miles of UDDS range, I think Chevy would have put in a smaller battery.

Agreed. I'm sure there were lot's of calculations a few years ago that included anticipated battery cost, expected sales price, and the value of the credits. The Type III classification won the day and the 200-mi Bolt EV was developed. They also concluded that the more utilitarian hatchback body was worth the reduced highway efficiency for their target market/demographic.

 

[Tree95]

I also question whether the general public considers GM to be particularly reliable...

I think Consumers Reports has shown that many people in the general public question Tesla's reliability.

 

[SageBrush]

The highway ratings are 97, 101, and 111 respectively. Now, the EPA highway rating is based on an average speed of 48.3 mph:
Detailed Test Information

From 2008, three supplemental tests were added. You can see the fast highway test in the link you provided.

Nothing wrong with your approach, but here is a rule of thumb I use:
At about 65 mph, half of power is spent on Aero friction and half on everything else (tyres, drivetrain.)

So at this speed, a car that is x% heavier but x% less CdA than another would have equal energy economies if the motors are equal efficiency. In the case of Tesla Vs another EV (presuming the Tesla is heavier but less CdA), if the 65 mph test is about even or shows a Tesla advantage between the two cars then higher speeds favor the Tesla.

You can also calculate for the case where Tesla is beaten at 65 mph, but that becomes a more convoluted mental arithmetic trick.

 

[Jeff N]

So why not buy a Nissan Leaf instead? It ticks all those boxes, for 10 grand less. You could argue that there might be people that need 200 miles of range, but no supporting infrastructure, I might answer that there are people with 11 fingers (thumbs included).

Because I have a ~100 mile regular commute and I would prefer to avoid a routine dependence on charging away from home. Today's 30 kWh LEAF would be cutting it a little too close. I could maybe do it but a Bolt EV would allow greater flexibility and be a lot more realistic for occasional but rare longer drives down to LA or up to Portland from the SF Bay Area.

 

[Jeff N]

Folks, the point of this thread was IF Model 3 garners say 500 K or more reservations/preorders, what does it say about the immediate size of the market for the BOLT , since it will only rollout to the US market, at least initially with no announced plans by Chevy to launch it in Europe or Asia.

GM has already announced plans to bring the Bolt EV to Europe as an Opel branded car. CCS in Europe is going to be widespread.

I think there are sufficient reasons to distinguish the Bolt from the Model 3 for the next few years at least until the Model Y CUV becomes available. Everyone recognizes that the Bolt's volume is likely constrained to 30-50k per year in the near future due to battery supplies. That could still make it a relative success versus other $35k cars in the market.

There is no doubt that only Tesla will be in a position to sell the largest volume of EVs during the next several years. However, as a small company, they can only fill a limited set of vehicle niches. There is still plenty of opportunity for cars such as the Bolt EV to fill market segments that overlap with the Model 3 (200+ mile range) while still differentiating themselves on specific features and capabilities.

 

[SageBrush]

I just wanted to follow-up with more numbers. If we assume aero drag accounts for half the energy needed to move at highway speeds, a reasonable but general assumption, we can estimate how the two cars will compare.

Let's assume the same 60 kWh battery, same tire rolling resistance, and drivetrain losses.

Bolt EV data:
Cd = 0.312
Area = 25.8 ft^2

Model 3 data (my guesses):
Cd = 0.22 <-- this is what matters !!
Area = 23.5 ft^2

Multiplying and comparing the numbers shows that the Model 3 will have 64% of the aero drag of the Bolt EV. At highway speeds, that's an 18% efficiency improvement. That could equal an additional 30 miles for the Model 3.

NEver mind -- my mistake in arithmetic

 

[Krugerrand]

I can't see my mom driving a Model 3 yet - she just learned how to post a photo to Facebook. She did however marvel at our Model S when she was up for a visit and finally got to ride in it. (She was afraid to drive it. ha.) She's single and an EV would be her only car, so for her switching, she would need to have the perception of familiarity.

My mother wants a Model 3 and she hates driving and also has several driving fears. And struggles to negotiate e-mail. So, there you go.

 

[R.S]

Because I have a ~100 mile regular commute and I would prefer to avoid a routine dependence on charging away from home. Today's 30 kWh LEAF would be cutting it a little too close. I could maybe do it but a Bolt EV would allow greater flexibility and be a lot more realistic for occasional but rare longer drives down to LA or up to Portland from the SF Bay Area.

Then you are the 11 finger guy. Seriously, the market is very slim and even time limited, I can't understand why GM would do something like that, unless they plan to reduce the price by $7,500, after the plug in grant runs out and they want to make some extra money until then.

 

[SageBrush]

The only way to resolve this question of Bolt sales is to have a poll!

I say 2k at $37k USD,
and another 3k at $32k,
then another 10k at 25k

And then the Bolt is eclipsed by the M3

 

[McRat]

... If the Type III credits were for 160 miles of UDDS range, I think Chevy would have put in a smaller battery.

You base this on what? Point to something that indicates it,

From 2011 to 2017 models of the Volt, the battery grew. It was not required, nor was there any competition in this market to beat. A 2011 has more EV full power range than it's best new 2016 competitors. It will go 101mph (limited) on battery uphill at 1 mile remaining charge. I don't think anybody else can do that.

There was no reason for full 100% redesign of the Volt in 2016. But all the parts were optimized down to the bolt pattern on the wheels to shave a few ounces. The 2015 Volt was already superior to all comers. It's superior to the 100% new Prius Plug In by a bunch.

BTW - For those who claim the Spark EV does not exist, go drive one. Impressive little car at a disposable price. Drive it until it needs tires, then donate it to a worthy cause. It's what a Leaf should have been.

 

[Jeff N]

It is not a given that the Bolt is more efficient than the Model S 60 where range matters most - long distance highway trips.

Agreed, as we have discussed before.

If you look at Kman auto's 60 kWh Supercharging from dead, he picked up 123 miles in 30 minutes. Real world is variable due to a number of conditions, I assume the Bolt's spec number is an ideal number.

I found that video. His car was at 0% or essentially empty of available charge. He described the charging conditions as "ideal". I don't independently know if that is true but he says he got substantially better results than he had previously seen and his results were substantially better than Bjorn's.

While he got around 123 miles in 30 minutes he also got around 155 miles in 45 minutes which he described as an 80% charge. GM has also stated that the Bolt EV will get an 80% charge in 45 minutes. My guess is that an 80% charge on the EPA highway window sticker estimate is about 145-150 miles.

In other words, Kman's S60 saw faster charging from dead empty in 30 minutes than GM's present claims for the Bolt EV but only slightly better miles per minutes charging to around 80% in 45 minutes.

To be clear, the S60 charges substantially slower than even the S70 much less the S85 or S90 but how will the base level Model 3 compare?

Here's a graph put together by someone in Hong Kong at the TeslaMotors forum last year based on available YouTube charging videos from Kman and Bjorn. He noticed differences in Kman's "ideal" charging video for the S60 and Bjorn's video and averaged the two results.

You can see from this that the S60 numbers are roughly consistent with GM's present claim for the Bolt EV at an 80% charge. GM has also stated that they have validated the Bolt at somewhat higher charging rates and will decide between their January reveal and first customer deliveries what the final charging rates will be.