Prediction: M3 will have Autopilot standard

[Saghost]

Tesla is not a traditional automaker. What's going to set Tesla Model 3 apart from BMW 3 series and Audi A4 (other than being an EV and Supercharge capable) will be the Autopilot.

I'm pretty sure the EV/Supercharger part is plenty to set it apart - I really doubt Tesla is going to have any problem with demand no matter what they decide on Autopilot.

Since Tesla basically confirms Model S (and X?) price and go up after Model 3 unveil, it is plausible that Model S and X will have Autopilot standard. This is what they have done with Supercharger capability: at first it is optional, then they made it standard by jacking up the price.

Funny thing about that - they didn't jack up the price. Supercharging was always included on the 85s; it was a $2k option on the 60s (not sure where the $3k used repeatedly upthread came from, but I've never seen that anywhere,) but when they changed to the 70 it became standard - and the 70 has the same $70k base price the 60 did before the change (increased from $67495 at initial release more than a year before the 70 came out.)

I'm not sure Supercharger will be included in the pricing for the base Model 3. But if Tesla makes autopilot standard on the Model 3, it will make this car miles ahead of its main competitors. It will be by far the best $35k car on the market.

Even if both are options, it'll be easily the best $35k car on the market, and Tesla will sell every one they can build - and both Autopilot and Supercharging are sure to be available post-sale upgrades if they aren't standard, unlike any other car I can name.

 

[S3XY]

Autopilot will not be standard. The hardware will be on the car, but just like the S and the X, you have to pay to have it enabled. The 3 will be no different. This is the same with BMW, MB, Audi etc. They package the cars with different options and you pay for those options.

I can't see Tesla telling a 35K car buyers that they can have AutoPilot free, before they give it to Model S/X car buyers who are paying 2x the cost for their cars.

Tesla has over a year to make autopilot free on the S/X before it's free on the 3. So it could be free on the 3 and it would make your statement correct as well.

 

[gregincal]

I just don't think they're going to do it. It's not that they couldn't, but a 35K car is going to be thin on margins as it is. This is a way to up the margins. You keep bringing up supercharging, but they could very well decide to charge for that on the 3 as well.

We'll see, it's all just guesses at this point. Everybody's entitled to their guess.

 

[aronth5]

They'll have the hardware certainly... Tesla isn't going to miss out on the chance of having 100k cars mapping out the world and improving autonomous driving.

But I think it'll be enabled on standard just like they did with the supercharging after a while as it is one with the Tesla brand now.

Autopilot is another game changer that Tesla has for the automobile and they want it everywhere. IMO

Question cdub. How about a hypothetical. If it came down to Tesla being able to sell the Model 3 at $35k but only if they make the software optional what would you do if you were Elon?

 

[MrBoylan]

I predict that with the Model 3 autopilot will be standard on all Tesla's. And by the time the 3 comes out onramp to exit autonomy will be functional.

This is my thoughts after test driving the Model S recently. The rep said she would be shocked if the 3 didn't have autopilot because that's what they're promoting all the time with the S. (She has no insider knowledge of the 3)

The cost for autopilot hardware can't be that much anymore.

This would be as much of a game changer as the free cross country supercharging.

I would be shocked if the Model 3 didn't have Autopilot too... as an option for exactly the same price as on the S and X. Teslas' AutoPilot is the most advanced of its kind currently. It cost millions of dollars to develop (hiring talented *and expensive* engineers, and working them to the bone), testing, iterating, tracking, tweaking, testing some more, iterating some more. It's a work in progress and will cost additional millions to keep it at the cutting edge of the technology. You can't fund that kind of technology without, well, funds.

Tesla already has their work cut out for them hitting the $35K price point for an awesome EV with a 200+ mile range. I'm sure they cannot do that today, but am confident that they will be able to do it by late next year. But throwing in AutoPilot - something that clearly separates Tesla from the competition - would not be a wise business move. Sure, they might sell more base models that way, but they'd be leaving a *LOT* of money on the table. You can't sell a car at a loss and make up for it in volume.

Charging for AutoPilot as an option would be a way of actually making the Model 3 profitable and continuing to collect revenue for its further development and enhancement over time. I do believe the AP hardware will come standard on all Model 3s, and that will allow them to have the safety features like auto-braking and collision avoidance as standard (as they do on the S and the X). But features like Autopilot (and Summon, which is part of it) deserve a premium price, perhaps even more so than slightly longer range or a quicker 0-60 time.

Why not do a poll?

 

[CuriousG]

I don't think so... the Autopilot hardware isn't that expensive. (comparatively)

Tell that for people that had to pay $1000 for a retractable handle once it was out of warranty.

My feeling is they'll make the hardware modular and easily accessible for people that wish to upgrade later. The S was not built with autopilot in mind and only came after the S was already in production.

The Model 3 is still being built and will probably have all the wiring harnesses available but without hardware. They'll probably still charge $2500 for the upgrade (if you didn't order the option) at that point it will be a combination of plugging the easily accessible locations and flipping the switch with software.

 

[TylerHilliard]

I can understand the arguments that having it enabled only with an option would be financially smart (part of tech package as S&X, assumed we all agree hardware will be included on all).

I hate when companies can improve something with the 'flip of a switch.' Why not include the better service if it costs you (close to) nothing? The example I am thinking of is my Comcast internet speed. We all know Comcast and Tesla are at complete ends of the brand equity spectrum which gives me my first reason to lean towards the 'enabled at no cost' camp.

Concerning comments about hardware being included allowing TACC and Collision Avoidance to be included and AP as upgrade - I think AP is the largest safety feature since, when enabled, you will not encounter as many instances where you need Collision Avoidance. Being morally sound, I think Tesla will include it in the base price for this reason.

Following suit in opening their patent portfolio, they could potentially announce they are open to consolidation of mapping efforts to advance autonomy much faster than otherwise possible.

All very optimistic opinions, I know, but with the general media's over-reacting to negatives and under-reaction to successes I think Tesla should make the launch bulletproof.

 

[tga]

I hate when companies can improve something with the 'flip of a switch.' Why not include the better service if it costs you (close to) nothing? The example I am thinking of is my Comcast internet speed.

Because it doesn't cost Comcast "close to nothing" to offer everyone the max. To do so would mean major network upgrades, costing tons of money. Companies are in the business to make money, not give away products and services.

 

[gregincal]

Yeah, including autopilot gets great press, but that doesn't do any good if they go bankrupt. You say it doesn't cost extra money, but what if including it mean that the base price needed to be increased to $38000. How would the press be then?

In my opinion thinking it will be included is wishful thinking that will probably lead to disappointment.

 

[ankitmishra]

Why should it be standard? It took a lot of effort and R&D to develop that feature. It's the software that matters and not the hardware.

 

[gregincal]

Why should it be standard? It took a lot of effort and R&D to develop that feature. It's the software that matters and not the hardware.

And it's not like it's done and they aren't continuing to employ large numbers of highly paid engineers to continue to develop it.

 

[TylerHilliard]

Because it doesn't cost Comcast "close to nothing" to offer everyone the max. To do so would mean major network upgrades, costing tons of money. Companies are in the business to make money, not give away products and services.

In my area 125 mb/s is already built out. I was on a 25mb/s plan but have to pay more to use the full 125 even though already available.

 

[TylerHilliard]

Good points, of it meant increased base price I'd definitely say option it - just optimist they can trim elsewhere. Their patents took a ton of R&D as well.

 

[Kenypowa]

Good points, of it meant increased base price I'd definitely say option it - just optimist they can trim elsewhere. Their patents took a ton of R&D as well.

Elon has said fully autonomous car are coming in 3 years. I still think Model 3 will have the current Autopilot (on new hardware) as standard, but Advanced Autopilot (the one that can really drive itself and read traffic lights) will be an add on.

The current Autopilot is already miles ahead of any other system will only serve as as a very strong selling point over the cars from Audi, BMW or Lexus.

 

[sports4eva115]

quick check, people are saying that adding Autopilot as standards will cost Tesla too much to hit the $35K base price, but since all Tesla vehicles are most probably going to ship with the hardware installed already, what exactly is the cost? is it that Tesla will only add Autopilot sensors if you select the tech package? or that they'll lose extra revenue if they don't do the $2.5K-to-turn-on option?
I feel like Tesla will really screw themselves if they don't add the sensors to all their vehicles... At this point Tesla stands out by far (from all other EV's) is its looks, supercharger, and near-autonomous driving. People who only know Tesla's on a surface level getting into a model 3 will definitely expect it to drive itself. Any car that's built without the sensors is basically useless to Tesla if they try to sell it as CPO. It's just plain not-as-attractive.

 

[tga]

In my area 125 mb/s is already built out. I was on a 25mb/s plan but have to pay more to use the full 125 even though already available.

Just because they can provide you with 125mbps at the edge doesn't mean the core has the capacity to provide that to everyone. Basic oversubscription and price discrimination.

 

[MrBoylan]

quick check, people are saying that adding Autopilot as standards will cost Tesla too much to hit the $35K base price, but since all Tesla vehicles are most probably going to ship with the hardware installed already, what exactly is the cost? is it that Tesla will only add Autopilot sensors if you select the tech package? or that they'll lose extra revenue if they don't do the $2.5K-to-turn-on option?

AutoPilot costs money to develop and maintain the software (you have to pay the developers, engineers, managers, etc.). Giving away the feature for "free" would eliminate a huge potential revenue stream for the company that would be used to recover the initial R&D expenses and to fund ongoing development. If a feature has significant value (which AP has), then people will be willing to pay extra for it. Whether that feature is advanced software, posh seating, upgraded speakers or blinking LED lights there are costs associated with it and revenue gained from selling it.

I'm sure Model 3 buyers would love to get AutoPilot "for free" in that $35K base model, but then where does Tesla get the money to pay the developers, engineers, managers, etc. to develop and maintain/enhance the software over time? I work for a software company that sells B2B software with an average deal size of over $150,000. This software can be delivered to customers "free" over the internet or on a $2 DVD. Does this mean that the software has no value or only "costs" $2? Of course not, the cost of the software includes the cost of developing, enhancing, marketing, selling and maintaining that software over time and keeping the company up and running so our customers can be serviced when they have issues getting the software to work or need help developing applications that use the software. The bulk of the cost of AutoPilot is not the cameras and sensors (which I think will be included in all cars) but the software development and maintenance costs. A company like Tesla pays their employees up front to develop software like this with the intention of charging customers to use it so the company can recover these R&D expenses.

I feel like Tesla will really screw themselves if they don't add the sensors to all their vehicles... At this point Tesla stands out by far (from all other EV's) is its looks, supercharger, and near-autonomous driving. People who only know Tesla's on a surface level getting into a model 3 will definitely expect it to drive itself. Any car that's built without the sensors is basically useless to Tesla if they try to sell it as CPO. It's just plain not-as-attractive.

I believe the hardware will be built into all Model 3 cars as this will simplify manufacturing and make it extremely easy to enable the AutoPilot feature, either at the time of purchase or down the road. Standard safety and convenience features on the S and X like automatic emergency braking, lane departure warning, blind spot warning and the parking proximity alerts require this hardware be in place. Assuming they want the base Model 3 to be as safe as its big brothers, they'll include the cameras and sensors in all cars. But they will charge to enable the AP-specific features: autopilot, self-parking and Summon. Yes, there are costs involved with the hardware, but I'm sure they've taken these costs into consideration when pricing the car.

 

[CuriousG]

quick check, people are saying that adding Autopilot as standards will cost Tesla too much to hit the $35K base price, but since all Tesla vehicles are most probably going to ship with the hardware installed already, what exactly is the cost? is it that Tesla will only add Autopilot sensors if you select the tech package? or that they'll lose extra revenue if they don't do the $2.5K-to-turn-on option?
I feel like Tesla will really screw themselves if they don't add the sensors to all their vehicles... At this point Tesla stands out by far (from all other EV's) is its looks, supercharger, and near-autonomous driving. People who only know Tesla's on a surface level getting into a model 3 will definitely expect it to drive itself. Any car that's built without the sensors is basically useless to Tesla if they try to sell it as CPO. It's just plain not-as-attractive.

Much easier to justify on a vehicle with a starting price of $70k as opposed to $35k.

Near autonomous driving? Far from it. The only time I use AP is on well marked freeways. Bad markings, heavy rain or snow, glaring sunlight will put a damper on that.

Tesla may do with a tech package again to have AP hardware or have it switched on. I don't see them actually throwing in the hardware especially when they need to cut costs. I penny saved is a penny earned. This is similar to a reddit thread that people say that the Model 3 should have HUD as it doesn't cost much for the hardware.

As for hardware costs, you think the UHFS is worth $2500 or replacing the 17" screen on a Model S is worth $2,900 when it isn't covered under warranty?

 

[MacroP]

My predictions are...
AP @ $2.5k
SC @ $2k (upgradable at any time)
AWD @ $4-5k
Tech pack (including AP) $3.5k

 

[sandpiper]

Why should it be standard? It took a lot of effort and R&D to develop that feature. It's the software that matters and not the hardware.

Agree... for them to hit 35K it simply won't be standard; they will need to cut out everything that they can to hit that price. I think you'll find that very little will be standard - 4 wheels, minimum battery, very basic interior. Look at an entry level A4, and that's likely what you'll see. I think you'll also find that pretty much nobody will buy the entry level vehicle. It could well be that autopilot is effectively standard, but at a higher price of course.