Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[Robert.Boston]

Wow, that's a lot of cancellations!

Interesting; my reaction was the opposite. It appears that there are 400-ish cancellations, but remember that they've contacted all of the US Signature holders plus up through about P5400, iirc. So, that's well under a 10% cancellation rate. To my mind, that's surprisingly low, given that there would be some natural attrition due to relocations, death, changed financial circumstances, etc.

 

[Joel]

Interesting; my reaction was the opposite. It appears that there are 400-ish cancellations, but remember that they've contacted all of the US Signature holders plus up through about P5400, iirc. So, that's well under a 10% cancellation rate. To my mind, that's surprisingly low, given that there would be some natural attrition due to relocations, death, changed financial circumstances, etc.

I agree with Robert.Boston. I calculated an increase from 5.10% (cancellation rate) in Q2 to a 10.75% cancellation rate in Q3. I do not have a frame of reference or a basis for comparison, but 10.00% to 11.00% appears to be a relatively low number of cancellations (9 out of 10 people stick with Tesla). Keep in mind, the number of net new reservations is increasing. In other words, as new information becomes available (store openings, supercharger location, options/pricing, etc.), more people are reserving. Clearly, we need more data to analyze the cancellation rate (whether it continues to increase). This data will be available in Q4.

 

[mnx]

Interesting; my reaction was the opposite. It appears that there are 400-ish cancellations, but remember that they've contacted all of the US Signature holders plus up through about P5400, iirc. So, that's well under a 10% cancellation rate. To my mind, that's surprisingly low, given that there would be some natural attrition due to relocations, death, changed financial circumstances, etc.

That doesn't sound bad at all, considering how loud the protest has been over the annual service fee.

 

[Adm]

Also, some of those cancelations are people switching to Model X.

 

[aviators99]

Interesting; my reaction was the opposite. It appears that there are 400-ish cancellations, but remember that they've contacted all of the US Signature holders plus up through about P5400, iirc. So, that's well under a 10% cancellation rate. To my mind, that's surprisingly low, given that there would be some natural attrition due to relocations, death, changed financial circumstances, etc.

I think you need to calculate the percentage against the number who have finalized, not just having been contacted. In any case, I was expecting much lower, for people who have tied up so much money for so much time. It could definitely have been worse, though.

 

[shokunin]

How did you calculate 400? It appears more like 1000.

Sales and Marketing Update
As of September 23, 2012, our Model S reservations, after subtracting deliveries, were approximately 13,000, up from approximately 11,500 at June 30, 2012. The third quarter has been the strongest quarter in our history for new Model S reservations, totaling more than 2,600 to date..

... Our new reservations for the quarter were partially offset by cancellations which increased as we asked the first several thousand customers on our reservation list to configure their cars for delivery or risk losing their production slot. As a result, we expect that total net reservations for the quarter will increase by approximately 1,600. We expect the cancellation rate to decrease after we work through the older reservations on our list and there is less of a gap between a customer placing a reservation, configuring the car and receiving delivery.

 

[aviators99]

How did you calculate 400? It appears more like 1000.

That's the way I read it too, but if you read more closely, it says that the increase (before cancellations) was 1,500 (11,500-13,000). After cancellations and the rest of the reservations for this month, they predict it will be 1,600. I'm not sure where 400 came from, but it's not the 1,000 I originally thought.

 

[timdorr]

Hmm, now I wonder if I'll get it this year.

I've got 244 SSL, 1299 S, 439 R, and I'm P1698. So, that's 3680 reservations ahead of me. And they're making 2700 - 3225 this year, so I'm out side of 2012's range that way.

But 1000 people cancelled. I'm guessing that's skewed towards the beginning of the list. I'm guessing there is likely anywhere from 500 - 750 cancellations in front of me. So, that gives me a chance that I might get it this year.

Guess I'm getting this as a Christmas present, not a Black Friday deal like I hoped.

 

[shokunin]

There are 1200 Sigs, so SSL and S are combined for 1200. P1698 you should be good to go depending on option/pack size. I figured in at least 40% (my own analysis) cancellation/deferral/switch under P5000 from P to Sig, from Model S to Model X and so forth.

I'm wondering now if they'll batch most profitable cars for 2012 (85KW packs only) and push 60kw and 40kw packs into 2013.

 

[FlasherZ]

I've got 244 SSL, 1299 S, 439 R, and I'm P1698. So, that's 3680 reservations ahead of me. And they're making 2700 - 3225 this year, so I'm out side of 2012's range that way.

SSL + S <= 1,200 for North America. Don't forget the founders' and test drive cars, roughly 100.

If you're sticking with rough math, figure on 100+1200+440+1700 = 3440th car, roughly, without cancellations. You can probably safely assume cancellations in SSL/S are minimal, given the waiting list, but there probably are some. You don't know about R or P cancellations, if you figure 10% you're likely nearing early-to-mid-January manufacturing date.

All very, very rough math, let's not nitpick it apart unless I'm egregiously wrong.

 

[Robert.Boston]

@shokunin: You're right, I had mis-remembered a number in the report.

 

[ckessel]

Very depressing. I'd been hoping (and telling people) late November based on the original 5k number for my P2840. Now it looks like I'll be lucky to get it by Feb or March. Which also means I was asked to finalize my order ~5 months before receiving (my last day to finalize was 9/13).

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

I know how you feel, ckessel. At 1,620, I'm hoping that I scrape in this year but, am not too confident of that now.

It's been a real pain to hold off for almost a year now with really only one good car (the other being a beater borrowed from a very generous friend); in retrospect, wish I had pulled the trigger on that BMW ActiveE 2-year lease back in January and waited to see how Tesla's story played out.

Water under the bridge now that I've configured and locked in the car...

 

[timdorr]

I'm wondering now if they'll batch most profitable cars for 2012 (85KW packs only) and push 60kw and 40kw packs into 2013.

Well, I'm an 85kWh with a few upgrades (tech, sound, and pano roof), so hopefully that will help.

 

[contaygious]

Very depressing. I'd been hoping (and telling people) late November based on the original 5k number for my P2840. Now it looks like I'll be lucky to get it by Feb or March. Which also means I was asked to finalize my order ~5 months before receiving (my last day to finalize was 9/13).

Late Nov? I was told Dec and I'm pretty early P#.

 

[timdorr]

Very depressing. I'd been hoping (and telling people) late November based on the original 5k number for my P2840. Now it looks like I'll be lucky to get it by Feb or March. Which also means I was asked to finalize my order ~5 months before receiving (my last day to finalize was 9/13).

Oh, I don't think it's that bad. I would expect late January for your delivery.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I know how you feel, ckessel. At 1,620, I'm hoping that I scrape in this year but, am not too confident of that now.

You can do factory delivery, though, which will shave a week off your time. When my green car rolls off the line just behind yours, they'll have to load it on a truck to drive the 3,137 miles to the Natick store. At least I know now, before I need to make my Q3 estimated tax payments...

 

[Krugerrand]

Don't get too down. It's still possible that supplier issues and such will get ironed out earlier than they are expecting and perhaps you're *batched* earlier for some reason. :smile:

 

[teslasguy]

SSL + S <= 1,200 for North America. Don't forget the founders' and test drive cars, roughly 100.

If you're sticking with rough math, figure on 100+1200+440+1700 = 3440th car, roughly, without cancellations. You can probably safely assume cancellations in SSL/S are minimal, given the waiting list, but there probably are some. You don't know about R or P cancellations, if you figure 10% you're likely nearing early-to-mid-January manufacturing date.

All very, very rough math, let's not nitpick it apart unless I'm egregiously wrong.

All the calculations I see here seem to ignore the Canadian Sigs. I've seen nothing yet from Tesla ablout how they plan to fold in production and delivery of the Canadian cars.
That could possibly delay US Production cars even further.

 

[Doug_G]

All the calculations I see here seem to ignore the Canadian Sigs. I've seen nothing yet from Tesla ablout how they plan to fold in production and delivery of the Canadian cars.
That could possibly delay US Production cars even further.

A little. I'd expect them to be built before US Production cars, but if their build rate really is over 200 per week, then you're talking a week's delay.

It's not clear how they are folding in the Canadian Production cars, though.