Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[Lyon]

The ass-hats at Jalopnik are back at it: http://jalopnik.com/5946165/tesla-cuts-revenue-forecast-as-they-predictably-cant-make-as-many-model-s-sedans-as-they-thought-they-could

Notably absent from this article is any mention that Model S has the range forecast by Tesla or the fact that it's not, as previously claimed by Jalopnik, vaporware.

What I find interesting is that they claim to have produced 77 cars last week.

In any event, 4-5 weeks delay is a bummer but I'm pleased that Tesla is placing such importance on quality.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

You can do factory delivery, though, which will shave a week off your time. When my green car rolls off the line just behind yours, they'll have to load it on a truck to drive the 3,137 miles to the Natick store. At least I know now, before I need to make my Q3 estimated tax payments...

Yes, factory delivery's definitely a plus for me. And, hopefully, I get batched earlier with yours for the Green rather than drag your 85 kWh down with my 60 kWh

I'd speculate that there has been fairly significant attrition - to Sig, Model X or cancellations - in the low Ps (under 2,000) rather than in the higher Ps (2,000 - 5,000) possibly because of the relative timing/"staleness" of the reservations and all the things that could have happened to those reservation holders and their situations over a longer period of time.

It's also curious that we don't see a lot of traffic from low Ps (< 1,400 or so) on TMC; Sigs, some Rs and > 1,500 Ps are much more active. Coincidence?!

Could just be wishful thinking on my part though

 

[markb1]

The ass-hats at Jalopnik are back at it: http://jalopnik.com/5946165/tesla-cuts-revenue-forecast-as-they-predictably-cant-make-as-many-model-s-sedans-as-they-thought-they-could

Notably absent from this article is any mention that Model S has the range forecast by Tesla or the fact that it's not, as previously claimed by Jalopnik, vaporware.

What I find interesting is that they claim to have produced 77 cars last week.

In any event, 4-5 weeks delay is a bummer but I'm pleased that Tesla is placing such importance on quality.

I didn't think the Jalopnik article was that bad. Certainly better than some of the stuff they've posted in the past.

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

I didn't think the Jalopnik article was that bad. Certainly better than some of the stuff they've posted in the past.

Really? the Title "Tesla Cuts Revenue Forecast Over Model S Production Issues, Have Lost $864.9 Million Since Founding'
says it all... They have LOST the money!!!

not spent it to make the most badass vehicle yet...or built a production line to produce cars... hired many many people and opened how many stores??
,no ..they lost it....Jalopnik sucks just like the other 'journalists'
how many people actually read stories vs those that see the headline in a little side thingy on some webpage? not many

 

[markb1]

Really. And I was talking about the article, not the headline.

 

[skwasha]

Reading the SEC filing, they don't ever distinguish between US/CAN/NA/? when discussing the production numbers. So, my assumption is CAN production is lumped in with US production. That said, there was this tidbit:

...the time it takes us to do final preparation of the vehicles for customer delivery, ship Model S vehicles to various final destinations around the United States and arrange for delivery of such vehicles to customers.

when discussing delivery vs. production discrepancies. So who knows, mebbe CAN res holders are SOL for 2012.

With regard to the production rate - They state specifically that 77 cars were produced the week ending 9/23. The targeted EOY build rate is 400/wk. They state they still expect to hit this target. That gives them 15 wks to go from 77 to 400. So far 255 cars have been produced with 132 delivered (42 last week.) Their newly stated target for the year is between 2700 and 3225 delivered vehicles. That leaves 2568 on the low end and 3093 on the high for remaining deliveries this year, regardless of how quickly they manage to ramp up production. There will always be a lag in production vs. delivery. Let's say they can get that to one week of inventory on hand. So, by the end of the yr that'd put them at between 2968 and 3493 produced cars for the yr.

Given all that, I think this means it's still very early in the famous "S" curve. I'd guess very moderate ramp up for the next 3-4 weeks before we see any significant pickup in prod rates (and of course related deliveries.)

 

[Trnsl8r]

A little. I'd expect them to be built before US Production cars, but if their build rate really is over 200 per week, then you're talking a week's delay.

....

Not even. Last I checked the Canadian sigs weren't sold out. But yeah, makes sense to keep the red paint going one more week and get some cars to Canada.

 

[Doug_G]

Not even. Last I checked the Canadian sigs weren't sold out. But yeah, makes sense to keep the red paint going one more week and get some cars to Canada.

Canadian Signatures ARE sold out.

 

[strider]

All the calculations I see here seem to ignore the Canadian Sigs. I've seen nothing yet from Tesla ablout how they plan to fold in production and delivery of the Canadian cars.
That could possibly delay US Production cars even further.

Huh? In the post you quoted they listed 1,200 Sigs. That is 1,000 for the US and 200 for Canada so they are being accounted for. I think we're all assuming that Canadian Sigs will start after US sigs, then R's, then P's. Though as Doug says no indication how they'll cycle in Canadian P's.

 

[dsmith2189]

Came accross this today. thought it might be of interest in this thread. looks like I'll be waiting longer for my order.
Tesla Blames New Delays on Production Difficulties

Tesla started production of the Model S in June, and so far it has delivered only 132 of the 5,000 vehicles it originally planned to deliver by the end of the year. It has now lowered that goal to between 2,500 and 3,000 cars, although it still hopes to meet its earlier target of 20,000 vehicles in 2013.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

With regard to the production rate - They state specifically that 77 cars were produced the week ending 9/23. The targeted EOY build rate is 400/wk. They state they still expect to hit this target.

But, didn't the end of quarter numbers suggest that w/e 9/30 would be less than 77? My main concern is the mention of supplier issues. A manufacturer is only as good as its part suppliers. My other key concern is the use of multiple shifts at some stages of assembly, which suggests a bottleneck.

 

[NigelM]

My other key concern is the use of multiple shifts at some stages of assembly, which suggests a bottleneck.

It also suggests that by putting in multiple shifts, they are dealing with potential bottlenecks. Glass half-full or half-empty?

 

[sp4rk]

Not that it's relevant to me (I'm in the 8,000 range) ... but couldn't people taking imminent delivery but not from the factory, GO to the factory, TAKE delivery and then independently ship the car to themselves?

Or, wait for the SuperCharger network to be built?

 

[Trnsl8r]

Not that it's relevant to me (I'm in the 8,000 range) ... but couldn't people taking imminent delivery but not from the factory, GO to the factory, TAKE delivery and then independently ship the car to themselves?

Or, wait for the SuperCharger network to be built?

At least one person did something similar to that: XC in a Tesla Model S

The catch, if you're outside of California, is that you have to pay California sales tax if you take delivery in California. That's a pretty good chunk of change...

 

[Todd Burch]

The ass-hats at Jalopnik are back at it: http://jalopnik.com/5946165/tesla-cuts-revenue-forecast-as-they-predictably-cant-make-as-many-model-s-sedans-as-they-thought-they-could

Notably absent from this article is any mention that Model S has the range forecast by Tesla or the fact that it's not, as previously claimed by Jalopnik, vaporware.

What I find interesting is that they claim to have produced 77 cars last week.

In any event, 4-5 weeks delay is a bummer but I'm pleased that Tesla is placing such importance on quality.

Seriosuly, dude, you need to stop going to that site. Is it an addiction? Get help . You're just financing the mindlessness!

 

[jeffhre]

Really? the Title "Tesla Cuts Revenue Forecast Over Model S Production Issues, Have Lost $864.9 Million Since Founding'
says it all... They have LOST the money!!!

not spent it to make the most badass vehicle yet...or built a production line to produce cars... hired many many people and opened how many stores??
,no ..they lost it....Jalopnik sucks just like the other 'journalists'
how many people actually read stories vs those that see the headline in a little side thingy on some webpage? not many

You can call it R&D, you can call it an investment or start-up costs, but money spent without making a profit is carried on the books as a loss. Jalopnik prides itself as a tell it like it is blog and I know they won't "euphamise" a loss semantically by calling it an investment. Though all the folks who keep saying Tesla makes vaporware have either had to stop talking or to redefine "vaporware" a few times now

 

[Fr23shjive]

I wonder what kind of supplier issues would cause bottlenecks like this? I definitely don't think Elon would slow production because of the chrome on the door handles or something trivial like that. It would have to be something more significant, right? I don't think he would want bad press like this unless it was absolutely necessary. Could it be some of his major suppliers like Mercedes?

I wish we could talk to a worker on the assembly line that could shed a little light on the subject.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wish we could talk to a worker on the assembly line that could shed a little light on the subject.

It wouldn't be prudent for any worker to be talking about such things. Good way to get a foot planted in your butt and your butt kicked out the door.

 

[Doug_G]

It doesn't take much to delay a product, especially when there are so many parts.

Suppose there's a circuit card that is absolutely required for the car to operate (in fact there are probably many). Now suppose a single electronic part on that board has a supply problem - out of hundreds on that single card. Now the supplier can't build the board, the board can't be delivered to Tesla, and Tesla can't build the car. That's all it takes.

 

[shokunin]

It doesn't take much to delay a product, especially when there are so many parts.

Very true. This happened to several auto mfgs when the tsunami hit Japan. There were shortages of several parts, one I think it was a sensor of some sort that basically wouldn't allow the cars to even start without it. With so few parts, they would build the cars, install the sensor, drive it off the line into the parking lot, uninstall and repeat with each car off the line.

When the monsoons and flooding hit thailand. Single sourced hard drive actuators and motors caused huge shortages of hard drive from Seagate and Western Digital.

I think Tesla supply chain could have had better planning if they had ordered parts months in advanced with preorders for anticipated volume, but that would increase inventory costs beyond the ideal and would impact cash flow.