Q3 Earnings Call: Questions about FSD

[diplomat33]

With the billions of miles that the fleet has driven, I would imagine that Tesla has enough data to know whether the hardware is capable of L5 or not. In fact, it might be one reason why we are getting the AP3 computer upgrade since Tesla knows that the computer upgrade is needed to get to L5.

I am confident that Tesla can do "Feature Complete". I think the real challenge will be going from FC to L5. Elon seems to think that going from FC to L5 will just take about a year thanks to the massive fleet data and it will just be a matter of improving the software using that data. That's very naive. As we've learned from Waymo and others, there are a lot of difficult edge cases and complex and unpredictable driving situations that make getting those last 9's towards L5 very challenging.

So, after FC, when Tesla is collecting data and trying to improve the reliability to get to where they can remove driver supervision, if they struggle and can't get there, then that will be strong evidence that the hardware is not good enough for L5.

 

[electronblue]

With the billions of miles that the fleet has driven, I would imagine that Tesla has enough data to know whether the hardware is capable of L5 or not.

The claim that AP2 hardware is Level 5 capable predates all that, though. Tesla made a Level 5 capability claim before they had ”billions of miles” of data from the suite. Now they are ”stuck” with that claim which may affect their comments today in a way that wouldn’t if that statement had not been made...

They did make freah Level 5 claims at the Autonomy Investor Day in 2019, when they did have some unknown amount of data from some unknown amount of miles (as they only gather a subset).

Elon seems to think that going from FC to L5 will just take about a year thanks to the massive fleet data and it will just be a matter of improving the software using that data. That's very naive.

Come on now. Do you really think Elon is naive.

Either he speaks the truth (ie there is real basis to say the things he does) or he does not (ie there is not and he most likely does know it being a smart guy). It is very simple in the end. Time will tell which is true and which is lie.

 

[diplomat33]

Come on now. Do you really think Elon is naive.

Either he speaks the truth (ie there is real basis to say the things he does) or he does not (ie there is not and he most likely does know it being a smart guy). It is very simple in the end. Time will tell which is true and which is lie.

Elon is only human. He is very smart. He is a visionary in a lot of ways. He has a lot of strengths but he has flaws too like the rest of us. He can be smart on some things and naive or wrong on other things.

But this what I am talking about. You seem to have a very binary view: either Elon is telling the truth (and we will have L5 feature complete no geofence by the end of this year and L5 autonomy by end of 2020) or Elon is lying.

Basically, if Tesla fails to deliver L5, the only explanation that you seem to be able to accept is that Elon was lying. Any other explanation, you say, is just rationalizations.

If Tesla fails to deliver L5 autonomy, it does not automatically mean that they were lying. Elon could have a real basis for what he says. After all, he has meetings with the development team. He also tests the latest FSD software in his car. He knows what is going on. And I am sure Elon has real reasons for picking the AP2 hardware and real reasons for saying it is capable of L5. He's explained some of his reasons ("first principles", "humans drive by vision"). So Elon can have real reasons and still end up being wrong without it being some big lie.

 

[electronblue]

Basically, if Tesla fails to deliver L5, the only explanation that you seem to be able to accept is that Elon was lying. Any other explanation, you say, is just rationalizations.

No, that is not what I’m saying at all. What I am saying is that it is likely Elon and Tesla knows what they are saying and why. I don’t think they are naive. I am not judging Tesla on failing to see the unforeseeable. I am judging them by what I think they knew or they reasonably should have known in their position.

So in my view they better have very well founded reasons for making such preposterous claims as Level 5 capable hardware in 2016 and Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019. If they didn’t have well founded reasons, or indeed if they had nefarious reasons (like PR), they are approaching the lie territory.

We don’t yet know if they did — but what I do not find likely is they said what they said because they were naive. Time will tell not only through Tesla’s delivery (or lack thereof possibly) but through leaks, lawsuits, memoirs whatnot on what the reality was.

But I do not think they are naive.

 

[diplomat33]

So in my view they better have very well founded reasons for making such preposterous claims as Level 5 capable hardware in 2016 and Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of 2019. If they didn’t have well founded reasons, or indeed if they had nefarious reasons (like PR), they are approaching the lie territory.

Personally, I think they probably have well founded reasons for making their claims about L5. I certainly don't have proof of any nefarious reasons.

 

[electronblue]

Personally, I think they probably have well founded reasons for making their claims about L5. I certainly don't have proof of any nefarious reasons.

We don’t have proof either way, which is why I am saying we don’t know if they are telling the truth about Level 5 no geofence feature complete at the end of 2019 or not. They know if what they are saying is real/realistic or not. We don’t know.

The potential motive for sugarcoating your message to investors is not hard to imagine though and I am sure you well know that.

In any case, it is already very hard to reconcile Tesla’s messaging from 2016 (eg EAP delivered in a single update by end of 2016, the reality uncovered of the FSD video etc) and the reality of AP2. Back then many members of the AP team left and expressed their dismay in the press on the claims made of the capabilities of the AP2 suite by management. It is not like we haven’t been ”here” before...

 

[Mardak]

With the billions of miles that the fleet has driven, I would imagine that Tesla has enough data to know whether the hardware is capable of L5 or not. In fact, it might be one reason why we are getting the AP3 computer upgrade since Tesla knows that the computer upgrade is needed to get to L5.

It'll be interesting to see what FSD capability Tesla ends up releasing to HW2/.5 vehicles. The computer upgrade allows for processing more camera data at higher resolutions and framerate, so instead of the current behavior primarily relying on front-facing camera and cropped lower-frequency other cameras, this seems to suggest FSD computer provides better safety for entering an intersection to detect and react to faster approaching vehicles from the sides.

I could see Tesla releasing basic traffic light and stop sign behavior to HW2+ where the vehicle will stop and go straight relatively independent of what other vehicles are doing because many times, you're the only vehicle at the intersection, and this will just happen to work fine, but it could be potentially dangerous in other situations. (Or maybe initial release is just stopping with the driver needing to manually resume to enter when safe, and this would help provide labeled training data to improve the neural network…)

It seems likely the side and wide cameras inputs are currently reduced with AutoPilot having trouble following sharp turns even at the minimum 18mph, but with some clever software optimizations, maybe AutoPilot can dynamically boost those camera inputs when it's getting ready to enter an intersection from a stop line. But handling turns and intersections where one doesn't need to stop probably wants the higher quality side inputs to navigate safely and smoothly.

Assuming these are the limitations of the older computer, adding city street support for Navigate on Autopilot to handle turns probably will be where HW3 is required.

 

[DanCar]

[Tesla] said on Autonomy Investor Day that they are aiming at Level 5 no geofence feature complete at end of 2019.

Here is the video:

A pointer where to find this in the video would be helpful.
Aiming for Level 5 suggests that it is a long term goal. It doesn't imply to me that they plan on achieving it with in the given time frame. So exact quote is interesting.

If Tesla gets sued about Level 5, I suspect their defense will be: I never said SAE level 5, I meant Tesla Level 5.

 

[DanCar]

Product is good enough without all the ****ing sleaze.

You'll find it common among successful startup leaders to have unrealistic expectations. Steve Jobs was like this as an example.

 

[diplomat33]

Here is the video:

A pointer where to find this in the video would be helpful.
Aiming for Level 5 suggests that it is a long term goal. It doesn't imply to me that they plan on achieving it with in the given time frame. So exact quote is interesting.

@electronblue It is at the 3:31:47 mark.

Here is the transcript:

Question: "So we understand the definition. You refer to feature complete self-driving. It sounds like you are talking level 5 no geofence. Is that right, just so that we are all on the same page?"

Elon: "yes"

 

[KSilver2000]

I don't think Musk really thought through that answer just as with many of his other remarks and responses that day.
Could come back to bite him a little.

 

[Mardak]

The question that Elon Musk answered included "feature complete" "self-driving" "level 5" "by the end of this year," and he quickly answered with one word "yes."

If you listen to what Elon Musk said earlier during Autonomy Day, it would be clear that he was referring to "feature complete" **with** supervision by the end of this year, so he probably interpreted (or just misheard) the question as "When you refer to 'feature complete' by the end of this year, is that referring to features needed for [SAE] level 5 self-driving?" as he clearly stated believing not this year but next year would not need driver supervision, which is by definition an attribute of reaching level 5.

 

[Daniel in SD]

The question that Elon Musk answered included "feature complete" "self-driving" "level 5" "by the end of this year," and he quickly answered with one word "yes."

If you listen to what Elon Musk said earlier during Autonomy Day, it would be clear that he was referring to "feature complete" **with** supervision by the end of this year, so he probably interpreted (or just misheard) the question as "When you refer to 'feature complete' by the end of this year, is that referring to features needed for [SAE] level 5 self-driving?" as he clearly stated believing not this year but next year would not need driver supervision, which is by definition an attribute of reaching level 5.

This is exactly what everyone is saying, a feature complete Level 5 prototype by the end of this year. By the end of next year it will be safer than a human and ready for deployment.

 

[diplomat33]

This is exactly what everyone is saying, a feature complete Level 5 prototype by the end of this year. By the end of next year it will be safer than a human and ready for deployment.

Yeah, I think most agree on that. I think the disagreement is on what a "feature complete level 5 prototype" is? We've had a lot of debate on this forum on what features should be a part of any "feature complete L5 prototype". I am sure Elon believes that they will have a "feature complete L5 prototype" by end of this year because Elon defines it as a car that can handle most parking lot driving, city driving and highway driving with driver supervision and minimal intervention. But others disagree because they don't think that is true L5.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yeah, I think most agree on that. I think the disagreement is on what a "feature complete level 5 prototype" is? We've had a lot of debate on this forum on what features should be a part of any "feature complete L5 prototype". I am sure Elon believes that they will have a "feature complete L5 prototype" by end of this year because Elon defines it as a car that can handle most parking lot driving, city driving and highway driving with driver supervision and minimal intervention. But others disagree because they don't think that is true L5.

I think he defines it as having the infrastructure in place to use training data to teach the car to drive itself.
I think he's crazy to be confident that it will work but that's the only logical explanation I can think of. There's no way that Tesla's team could manually code all the features necessary for Level 5 by the end of this year.

 

[Mardak]

I think he defines it as having the infrastructure in place to use training data to teach the car to drive itself.

Tesla's current approach is to explicitly not code handling all the corner cases needed for level 5, so your comment about reaching this basic infrastructure seems right.

It looks like the plan is to have a base set of features, which seems to consist of being able to stop, go, and steer; and make sure those features work in the common case, e.g., resuming straight from a stop sign. Any less common situation is an improvement to those basic features and something the neural network learns from more examples of human intervention (of braking, accelerating, or turning the wheel). And in the mean time before level 5, AutoPilot can be wrong and/or dangerous, but that's not that different from AutoPilot causing accidents on the highway over the past years.

The main difference from Tesla introducing and improving Navigate on Autopilot vs Tesla introducing feature complete FSD and improving is that at the beginning of 2018, there were maybe 150,000 HW2+ vehicles collecting data while beginning 2020, there should be more than 5x the number of HW2+ vehicles.

Whether more intervention data is all that's necessary to go from "feature complete" FSD to no supervision is an open question.

 

[diplomat33]

I think he defines it as having the infrastructure in place to use training data to teach the car to drive itself.

Not sure that is correct. It's more than just having the infrastructure in place to train the car. After all, he's talked about the car actually being able to drive a daily commute with few interventions. So clearly, he sees feature complete as actually having some self-driving features already in the car.

I think he's crazy to be confident that it will work but that's the only logical explanation I can think of. There's no way that Tesla's team could manually code all the features necessary for Level 5 by the end of this year.

I think you might be mistaken about what Tesla is calling Feature Complete. Tesla's Feature Complete does not mean every single L5 feature right away. Remember in the earnings call, Elon described feature complete as the car driving an average commute but maybe requiring a few driver interventions because it won't be able to do everything. So it is implied that some L5 features will be missing at first.

Based on the earnings call and the FSD page, I take "L5 Feature Complete no geofence" to basically be navigating a parking lot, auto parking, following navigation directions like lane changes to stay on route and making turns at intersections, lane keeping, auto lane changes to get around slow traffic, traffic aware cruise control, on and off ramps on the highway, and responding to traffic lights, stop signs, speed limit signs and other traffic signs. The remaining L5 features will be added later as Tesla works to take Feature Complete to real L5 with no driver supervision.

If you look at my signature which has the list of features in Feature Complete, Tesla just needs to release "traffic lights and stop signs" and "automatic city driving" in order to achieve "Feature Complete". And these features are already in alpha, so they just need to improve the reliability to where they are ready for beta with driver supervision and then Tesla can release Feature Complete to Early Access.

That is why Elon feels good about feature complete by end of this year. They just need to get those two features from alpha to beta early access by end of this year, in order to achieve "feature complete".

 

[DanCar]

@electronblue It is at the 3:31:47 mark.

Here is the transcript:

Question: "So we understand the definition. You refer to feature complete self-driving. It sounds like you are talking level 5 no geofence. Is that right, just so that we are all on the same page?"

Elon: "yes"

Thanks.
That will never hold up in a court of law. It doesn't mean anything, unless Elon clarifies. As someone else said, he could have misheard, misunderstood, or not even aware of SAE 5 levels. I've never heard Elon mention SAE.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Thanks.
That will never hold up in a court of law. It doesn't mean anything, unless Elon clarifies. As someone else said, he could have misheard, misunderstood, or not even aware of SAE 5 levels. I've never heard Elon mention SAE.

I guarantee you that it is provable beyond a reasonable doubt, let alone the civil case preponderance of the evidence standard, that Elon Musk knows what Level 5 means. Here he is clarifying what Level 5 means: https://www.xautoworld.com/tesla/transcript-elon-musk-autopilot-2-conference-call/
Tesla has never promised a schedule to customers for Level 5 though and they're not even promising that cars built today will ever be autonomous though people who bought under the old definition of FSD might have a case.

 

[electronblue]

You are barking at the wrong tree. I am the one guy here who leaves open the possibility Tesla told the truth when they said on Autonomy Investor Day that they are aiming at Level 5 no geofence feature complete at end of 2019.

@diplomat33, @J1mbo etc seem to have already made up their mind that Tesla were not aiming at Level 5 no geofence feature complete at end of 2019, even though they said so to the investors and the public.

Here is the video:

A pointer where to find this in the video would be helpful.
Aiming for Level 5 suggests that it is a long term goal. It doesn't imply to me that they plan on achieving it with in the given time frame. So exact quote is interesting.

If Tesla gets sued about Level 5, I suspect their defense will be: I never said SAE level 5, I meant Tesla Level 5.

@electronblue It is at the 3:31:47 mark.

Here is the transcript:

Question: "So we understand the definition. You refer to feature complete self-driving. It sounds like you are talking level 5 no geofence. Is that right, just so that we are all on the same page?"

Elon: "yes"

No.

That is not the quote as you full well know @diplomat33 given that the right quote has been on this forum lots of times.