chickensevil
Active Member
It's easy to forget that there are other countries besides the US isnt it?
Next you will tell me that the earth isn't the center of the Universe!
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Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations
- Thread starter vgrinshpun
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Next you will tell me that the earth isn't the center of the Universe!
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Clprenz
Member
Just Spit balling, any possibility that Tesla delivered 7,000 cars? Seems like something they would do, technically 7000 cars is almost 6900. I expect GM's were substantially good, due to huge increase in production output (27-28% GM). Reason: New Panasonic agreement started, ie. new cheaper price (more quantity, less $$), hence the pick up in production.
Now I'm not trying to start rumors, I just think that these are real possibilities. 7,000 cars, $109,000 ASP, 27% GM, 142 mil CapEx = $64,010,000 Profit EPS: $.45
What I expect? EPS of $.25+
What is priced in? Around $.20
What I want? $.35
What would rock my socks off? $.45
Now I'm not trying to start rumors, I just think that these are real possibilities. 7,000 cars, $109,000 ASP, 27% GM, 142 mil CapEx = $64,010,000 Profit EPS: $.45
What I expect? EPS of $.25+
What is priced in? Around $.20
What I want? $.35
What would rock my socks off? $.45
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Zero probability. It was already well into Q1 when they announced so they had a good handle on how many they delivered all the way to the end of Q4. If it was 7000, they would have said 7000.
More likely the number will be 6850-6890.
Benz
Active Member
TSLA reached a new all time high of $199.30 today and it closed at $196.56 !!!
I must say that I had not expected that to happen before the release of the Q4 2013 ER and Conference Call on February 19th, 2014.
I must say that I had not expected that to happen before the release of the Q4 2013 ER and Conference Call on February 19th, 2014.
Is it possible the 4th quarter results won't matter? Imagine this scenario: 6,900 sold in Q4 (which we know), 27% gross margin, Q4 earnings per share exceeding expectations, projection of 40,000+ Model S produced in 2014, lots of China reservations, with demand exceeding supply for the foreseeable future. It all sounds great so far, but we also know that a gigafactory will be announced. That is great for long-term growth, but what if Tesla says they are going to plow most of their earnings into that factory so there won't be much earnings per share for the next 3 years. Could that tank the stock?
Benz
Active Member
Good question. But I think that they will find another solution to finance the gigafactory. Don't worry about it.
Why would that be an issue? It isn't like any of us are expecting dividend checks (for the next 15 years anyway. when they are making bank selling 500k model E's per year the natives will get restless). They are supposed to reinvest their cash earnings back into revenue-generating capacity, thus growing the company without new debt or dilution. That is the *ideal* case, not a problem.
Projected earnings per share as an important metric by which institutional investors (and their trading robots) evaluate stocks. We see it as a positive if Tesla invests its profits in future growth, but if big stockholders devalue Tesla because it won't have very much net earnings per share the next 3 years, they will sell and the stock will drop.
Projected EPS is not important at all, just look at AMZN.
The only thing that makes a stock valuable is potential future dividend payments. A stock price is the present value of expected future dividend payments and not expected EPS over the next 3 years or so.
What I am trying to say is that your scenario would not be an issue at all.
This is exactly my view on EPS on a high growth company like TSLA.
For AMZN it doesn't matter what EPS they report since they're re-investing money into growth. Rather, AMZN needs to report fast-growing revenue and decent margins for investors to keep believing that the company will someday in the future be able to give exceedingly large amounts of dividends back to shareholders that will make their investment well worth it. Once AMZN growth slows (and it might actually have started), then they need to start showing more EPS since investors don't have the fast-growing revenue to convince them of huge earnings in the future which will lead to large dividends and repayment of the initial investment and more.
Thumper
Active Member
Do we really know that the earnings call is Wed the 19th? The Tesla corporate site still does not list it as an event. It is usually up by now.
Q4 2013 earnings is just a few days away (Feb 19) so I’ll share my Q4 estimates. The TMC community has been generous so it’s an honor to contribute.
Quick Summary: (revised 2/18/14)
$720m revenue (non-GAAP)
25.9% gross margin excluding ZEV income
$48.5m income (non-GAAP)
$0.43 eps (non-GAAP)
$6.7m loss (GAAP)
-$0.05 eps (GAAP)
Previous 2/17/14 estimates:
$680m revenue (non-GAAP)
25.3% gross margin excluding ZEV income
$34m income (non-GAAP)
$0.21 eps (non-GAAP)
$21m loss (GAAP)
-$0.17 eps (GAAP)
Here are the key numbers to look out for.
1. Total Revenues (non-GAAP)
I’ve forecasted 6880 deliveries with an avg sales price of around $100k. The reason I’ve done this is because in Q3 I think Tesla benefited from early European signatures but in Q4 I think the number of signatures and fully loaded cars to Europe might have decreased. $103k asp for Q3 was an abnormally high number IMO. I think $100k is more realistic for this quarter and I’d imagine it to fall a bit in coming quarters as well. So, at $100k asp, I’m projecting total non-GAAP revenue at $720m.
Previous 2/17/13 estimate: $95k asp, $680m revenue
2. Gross margins w/o ZEV income
It will be important for Tesla to deliver strong gross margin numbers, around 25% excluding ZEV income. 24-26% would meet shareholder expectations, anything more would exceed.
3. non-GAAP income and eps
At $720m non-GAAP revenue and a 25.9% gross margin w/o ZEV income, I’m forecasting a non-GAAP income of $48.5m. I’m estimating a non-GAAP eps (diluted) of $0.32 eps. Tesla needs to report over $740m to exceed shareholder expectations.
Previous 2/17/13 estimate: non-gaap revenue estimate 680m, 25.3% gross margin w/o zev, non-gaap income $34m, non-gaap eps (diluted) $0.21 eps.
4. GAAP eps
I’m estimating a GAAP eps of -$0.05 eps, basic. The only way for TSLA to be GAAP positive this quarter is if they can have strong ZEV credit income along with strong revenue. If they can achieve $28m in ZEV income (with 6880 deliveries at $95k asp), then I’m showing a GAAP profit of $0.03 eps. However, Tesla management has said multiple times to expect near zero ZEV credit in Q4 2013. So, I think it’s wise to heed their advice, and thus I’ve forecasted $3m in ZEV credit. But it’s interesting to note that Tesla can be pushed into GAAP positive territory with strong ZEV income if that occurs in Q1 2014 or later.
Previous 2/17/13 estimate: gasp -$0.17 eps
Overall, I think Tesla will report a strong quarter, but the bigger question is will it meet shareholder expectations. With a high-growth momentum stock like TSLA, the analyst estimates sometimes are on the low-end. The reason being is because the analysts aren’t the ones usually holding TSLA stock. The people holding TSLA stock are Tesla believers (both institution and retail), traders and momentum investors. The typical shareholder is very bullish on TSLA and after the recent $60 rise in the past month, shareholders will have high expectations going into Q4 earnings.
Since Tesla pre-announced deliveries for Q4, the key part of the earnings report/call will likely be in other areas. Here are they key areas to watch out for besides what I mentioned above (ie., revenue, GM, eps, etc):
1. FY 2014 delivery guidance
Tesla will likely share how many vehicles they’re planning to deliver in 2014. While I think they could guide as high as 37,500, I think they’ll play it conservatively and guide at 35,000 units for 2014. I’m expecting this to meet shareholder expectations.
2. Battery Gigafactory
Elon is expected to share more details on the battery gigafactory. Some people have dilution fears (ie., the gigafactory will need a large stock offering to fund it). I’m optimistic that Elon will have a creative plan to tackle the gigafactory and financing it. Further, I don’t think the full financing amount needs to be done up front. If Tesla needs to raise $1 billion this year for the gigafactory (since it could take 1-2 years to build), then that’s only diluting the stock 1/25 (out of the current $25b valuation). I don’t think shareholders need to fear dilution as Tesla’s valuation is high enough to make dilution less severe. Further, Elon can involve partners and creative funding mechanisms to prevent stock dilution. Regardless, the battery gigafactory is going to be something to focus on in the shareholder letter and earnings conference call. Personally, I think if presented well the gigafactory presents upside to TSLA’s valuation.
3. Production ramp
If TSLA gives FY 2014 guidance then that will answer most of the questions regarding how fast they can ramp in 2014. However, if they don’t offer 2014 guidance for units delivered, then it’s going to be important for TSLA to show that it’s ramping and scaling production (or has immediate plans) in a meaningful way.
4. 2014 Gross Margin guidance
If Tesla offers guidance for 2014 gross margin, this has potential upside to TSLA’s valuation. More specifically, if TSLA guides to reach 30% gross margin by end of 2014 then this will be significant as it shows that Tesla is doing what most people thought they couldn’t do (ie., make high-margins on the Model S).
5. Model X and S demand
I don’t think this will happen in Q4 ER, but at some point this year people will wake up to the fact that demand for Model X is very strong. On TMC we know Model X reservations are already at around 12,000. And I think Model X demand could be at least as high as the Model S. At some point (maybe this year), people will realize that Model S global demand is at 50k+ units/year and Model X global demand is at 50k+ unit/year. If you do the simple math (100k units x $100k asp = $10b x 30% gross margin = $3b GM x .5 (expenses) = $1.5b income. Give it a 25x forward multiple and you’re looking at a $37.5b valuation or close to a $300 stock price). In other words, if Model S remains robust (ie., U.S., Europe, China) and Tesla is able to ramp production significantly, and if Model X reservation pace picks up (test drives are supposedly starting in Autumn this year), then it could become clear to the market that Tesla is headed to 100k Model S/X per year in a couple years, and that could take the stock higher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see TSLA print $300 at some point this year. That being said, if TSLA runs into challenges (ie., production challenges, safety issues, fires, etc), then the stock could get hit as the valuation is based on future earnings potential and a generous multiple.
Overall, I think Tesla is in control. They can release as much good news as they deem fit in Q4 ER. However, my hunch is that they’ll be somewhat conservative and space out the good news/expectations throughout the year.
Sleepyhead and I will be co-hosting a google hangout on the evening of earnings (Feb 19) where we’ll evaluate the earnings report/call and share our thoughts.
ps., I'm open-sourcing the spreadsheet I've created. Feel free to add your own numbers and share your creations.
download excel spreadsheet: View attachment Q4-2013r.xlsx
*note: I originally created the spreadsheet on Numbers (Mac) so I'm not sure if it exported the excel file correctly or not, so some functions/formulas might not work.
previous 2/17/14 estimate:
Quick Summary: (revised 2/18/14)
$720m revenue (non-GAAP)
25.9% gross margin excluding ZEV income
$48.5m income (non-GAAP)
$0.43 eps (non-GAAP)
$6.7m loss (GAAP)
-$0.05 eps (GAAP)
Previous 2/17/14 estimates:
$680m revenue (non-GAAP)
25.3% gross margin excluding ZEV income
$34m income (non-GAAP)
$0.21 eps (non-GAAP)
$21m loss (GAAP)
-$0.17 eps (GAAP)
Here are the key numbers to look out for.
1. Total Revenues (non-GAAP)
I’ve forecasted 6880 deliveries with an avg sales price of around $100k. The reason I’ve done this is because in Q3 I think Tesla benefited from early European signatures but in Q4 I think the number of signatures and fully loaded cars to Europe might have decreased. $103k asp for Q3 was an abnormally high number IMO. I think $100k is more realistic for this quarter and I’d imagine it to fall a bit in coming quarters as well. So, at $100k asp, I’m projecting total non-GAAP revenue at $720m.
Previous 2/17/13 estimate: $95k asp, $680m revenue
2. Gross margins w/o ZEV income
It will be important for Tesla to deliver strong gross margin numbers, around 25% excluding ZEV income. 24-26% would meet shareholder expectations, anything more would exceed.
3. non-GAAP income and eps
At $720m non-GAAP revenue and a 25.9% gross margin w/o ZEV income, I’m forecasting a non-GAAP income of $48.5m. I’m estimating a non-GAAP eps (diluted) of $0.32 eps. Tesla needs to report over $740m to exceed shareholder expectations.
Previous 2/17/13 estimate: non-gaap revenue estimate 680m, 25.3% gross margin w/o zev, non-gaap income $34m, non-gaap eps (diluted) $0.21 eps.
4. GAAP eps
I’m estimating a GAAP eps of -$0.05 eps, basic. The only way for TSLA to be GAAP positive this quarter is if they can have strong ZEV credit income along with strong revenue. If they can achieve $28m in ZEV income (with 6880 deliveries at $95k asp), then I’m showing a GAAP profit of $0.03 eps. However, Tesla management has said multiple times to expect near zero ZEV credit in Q4 2013. So, I think it’s wise to heed their advice, and thus I’ve forecasted $3m in ZEV credit. But it’s interesting to note that Tesla can be pushed into GAAP positive territory with strong ZEV income if that occurs in Q1 2014 or later.
Previous 2/17/13 estimate: gasp -$0.17 eps
Overall, I think Tesla will report a strong quarter, but the bigger question is will it meet shareholder expectations. With a high-growth momentum stock like TSLA, the analyst estimates sometimes are on the low-end. The reason being is because the analysts aren’t the ones usually holding TSLA stock. The people holding TSLA stock are Tesla believers (both institution and retail), traders and momentum investors. The typical shareholder is very bullish on TSLA and after the recent $60 rise in the past month, shareholders will have high expectations going into Q4 earnings.
Since Tesla pre-announced deliveries for Q4, the key part of the earnings report/call will likely be in other areas. Here are they key areas to watch out for besides what I mentioned above (ie., revenue, GM, eps, etc):
1. FY 2014 delivery guidance
Tesla will likely share how many vehicles they’re planning to deliver in 2014. While I think they could guide as high as 37,500, I think they’ll play it conservatively and guide at 35,000 units for 2014. I’m expecting this to meet shareholder expectations.
2. Battery Gigafactory
Elon is expected to share more details on the battery gigafactory. Some people have dilution fears (ie., the gigafactory will need a large stock offering to fund it). I’m optimistic that Elon will have a creative plan to tackle the gigafactory and financing it. Further, I don’t think the full financing amount needs to be done up front. If Tesla needs to raise $1 billion this year for the gigafactory (since it could take 1-2 years to build), then that’s only diluting the stock 1/25 (out of the current $25b valuation). I don’t think shareholders need to fear dilution as Tesla’s valuation is high enough to make dilution less severe. Further, Elon can involve partners and creative funding mechanisms to prevent stock dilution. Regardless, the battery gigafactory is going to be something to focus on in the shareholder letter and earnings conference call. Personally, I think if presented well the gigafactory presents upside to TSLA’s valuation.
3. Production ramp
If TSLA gives FY 2014 guidance then that will answer most of the questions regarding how fast they can ramp in 2014. However, if they don’t offer 2014 guidance for units delivered, then it’s going to be important for TSLA to show that it’s ramping and scaling production (or has immediate plans) in a meaningful way.
4. 2014 Gross Margin guidance
If Tesla offers guidance for 2014 gross margin, this has potential upside to TSLA’s valuation. More specifically, if TSLA guides to reach 30% gross margin by end of 2014 then this will be significant as it shows that Tesla is doing what most people thought they couldn’t do (ie., make high-margins on the Model S).
5. Model X and S demand
I don’t think this will happen in Q4 ER, but at some point this year people will wake up to the fact that demand for Model X is very strong. On TMC we know Model X reservations are already at around 12,000. And I think Model X demand could be at least as high as the Model S. At some point (maybe this year), people will realize that Model S global demand is at 50k+ units/year and Model X global demand is at 50k+ unit/year. If you do the simple math (100k units x $100k asp = $10b x 30% gross margin = $3b GM x .5 (expenses) = $1.5b income. Give it a 25x forward multiple and you’re looking at a $37.5b valuation or close to a $300 stock price). In other words, if Model S remains robust (ie., U.S., Europe, China) and Tesla is able to ramp production significantly, and if Model X reservation pace picks up (test drives are supposedly starting in Autumn this year), then it could become clear to the market that Tesla is headed to 100k Model S/X per year in a couple years, and that could take the stock higher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see TSLA print $300 at some point this year. That being said, if TSLA runs into challenges (ie., production challenges, safety issues, fires, etc), then the stock could get hit as the valuation is based on future earnings potential and a generous multiple.
Overall, I think Tesla is in control. They can release as much good news as they deem fit in Q4 ER. However, my hunch is that they’ll be somewhat conservative and space out the good news/expectations throughout the year.
Sleepyhead and I will be co-hosting a google hangout on the evening of earnings (Feb 19) where we’ll evaluate the earnings report/call and share our thoughts.
ps., I'm open-sourcing the spreadsheet I've created. Feel free to add your own numbers and share your creations.
download excel spreadsheet: View attachment Q4-2013r.xlsx
*note: I originally created the spreadsheet on Numbers (Mac) so I'm not sure if it exported the excel file correctly or not, so some functions/formulas might not work.
previous 2/17/14 estimate:
Last edited:
callmesam
Member
@DaveT
Great work! Thanks for providing us the fruits of your hard work.
Offer of Assistance:
I've done a live blog of the previous few earnings reports on TM Forum (which I'm slowly wearying of) and wonder if there is any interest here. Most will listen live, but I'm a fast typer . . . help where people aren't set up for audio or flash (in the car, perhaps). Also not sure exactly where to post. I'm interested in the google hang out.
Tesla Motors, Inc. Third Quarter 2013 Financial Results QA Webcast - LIVEBLOG | Forums | Tesla Motors
Live Blog 2012 Shareholders Meeting June 4, 2013 | Forums | Tesla Motors
Live Blog Tesla Announcement April 26 - Elon Musk | Forums | Tesla Motors
Great work! Thanks for providing us the fruits of your hard work.
Offer of Assistance:
I've done a live blog of the previous few earnings reports on TM Forum (which I'm slowly wearying of) and wonder if there is any interest here. Most will listen live, but I'm a fast typer . . . help where people aren't set up for audio or flash (in the car, perhaps). Also not sure exactly where to post. I'm interested in the google hang out.
Tesla Motors, Inc. Third Quarter 2013 Financial Results QA Webcast - LIVEBLOG | Forums | Tesla Motors
Live Blog 2012 Shareholders Meeting June 4, 2013 | Forums | Tesla Motors
Live Blog Tesla Announcement April 26 - Elon Musk | Forums | Tesla Motors
Last edited:
Thanks Dave. I'm impressed by the willingness to share such valuable information to the TMC-Communiy. Great place on the internet ;-). If TSLA goes to 300 $ before this summers I consider spending some of my profits and coming to California to the shareholder meeting. Maybe I'll meet some of you guys there ;-)
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Since Elon is likely to talk about the Giga Factory, what do you think could be the implications for gros margins? I heard somewhere that Elons goal is to achieve gros margins of 30%. Do you think this is possible without their own battery factory or did these margins also include own battery production?
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Since Elon is likely to talk about the Giga Factory, what do you think could be the implications for gros margins? I heard somewhere that Elons goal is to achieve gros margins of 30%. Do you think this is possible without their own battery factory or did these margins also include own battery production?
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