Robotaxi? Really??

[Vicj]

I'm reading today that Tesla is scrapping plans for the Model 2 in favor of... the Robotaxi? Really?

After the Cybertruck debacle that has sent their stock plummeting, this seems like another really stupid decision, if true.

It's my understanding that Musk no longer has the controlling interest in the company, so this can't just be because of his usual childish and impulsive decisions.

Is there any definitive word on this?? If it turns out to be true, I'm going to have to turn to Hyundai for my next EV...

 

[VT_EE]

It’ll only be useful in the Boring Company Vegas tunnels. At least initially.

 

[Vicj]

They desperately need a new, competitive model.... and not something as expensive, and polarizing, as the Cyberstupidity. What the heck are they thinking??

 

[LarryClay]

It is always about Elon's ego.

 

[Vicj]

It certainly was in the past. But Musk is no longer the controlling owner. He doesn't have the majority of shares any longer. He sold much of his stock to purchase a social media company he subsequently destroyed. He's just a figurehead now. A figurehead that annoys the very demographic that catapulted Tesla to the front to begin with. Worse, he is exceptionally unpopular with younger buyers, where future sales need to come from.
It's time the board stood up to him, and washed their hands of him.

 

[Ni Ph]

It is always about Elon's ego.

It’s too big for the earth

Put him on the first flight to mars

 

[Ni Ph]

It certainly was in the past. But Musk is no longer the controlling owner. He doesn't have the majority of shares any longer. He sold much of his stock to purchase a social media company he subsequently destroyed. He's just a figurehead now. A figurehead that annoys the very demographic that catapulted Tesla to the front to begin with. Worse, he is exceptionally unpopular with younger buyers, where future sales need to come from.
It's time the board stood up to him, and washed their hands of him.

Board is full of Elon fanboys

Shame Tesla are not working harder to push Highland (the most complete Tesla so far) production and rolling out the changes to Model Y.

Not Elon though, too busy rage tweeting about the immigrants.

 

[Vicj]

Well be careful. This chat board is also full of Elon fanboys

 

[prettig]

Cars are status symbols, people like to drive them. Robotaxi will work, just will take a few decades to get people out of their rolling castles. Small EV market is now. I guess they are not stupid.

 

[whitex]

It’ll only be useful in the Boring Company Vegas tunnels. At least initially.

Yep, with a safety driver. But hey, Elon will be able to say he delivered on a RoboTaxi (because the car will be called that, like Full Self Driving is called that, doesn't mean it fully self drives or ever will, because it won't, not in the cars it was sold in since 2016).

 

[bdwalters]

FSD is amazing, but it’s going to take Tesla 5 more years to get it nailed. How do you sell a robotaxi until then? What a disaster!

 

[whitex]

FSD is amazing, but it’s going to take Tesla 5 more years to get it nailed. How do you sell a robotaxi until then? What a disaster!

Elon has historically been able to find naive customers. I was one until 2015 when I realized he will say whatever it takes to sell (he sold me a 700hp P85D - for those who don't remember the past it was just called that, it produced a maximum of 461hp when all stars aligned). People like me tried to warn others about the fact that Full Self Driving is only that by name (rather than because it will ever drive the car by itself with no driver), and that Teslas are appreciating cars only because Elon calls them that, not because they will ever be climbing in value to >$200K like Elon said (in that case I was flamed by fanboys here even though simple evidence of Tesla not willing to use appreciating residual values for leases was proof there were "appreciating assets" only in name). The only question is, will be able to find more dupes to continue his climb.

 

[cwerdna]

I didn't have the time (nor much interest) to follow Elon's claims and "announcements" from their earnings call yesterday but...

Elon has historically been able to find naive customers. I was one until 2015 when I realized he will say whatever it takes to sell (he sold me a 700hp P85D - for those who don't remember the past it was just called that, it produced a maximum of 461hp when all stars aligned). People like me tried to warn others about the fact that Full Self Driving is only that by name (rather than because it will ever drive the car by itself with no driver), and that Teslas are appreciating cars only because Elon calls them that, not because they will ever be climbing in value to >$200K like Elon said (in that case I was flamed by fanboys here even though simple evidence of Tesla not willing to use appreciating residual values for leases was proof there were "appreciating assets" only in name). The only question is, will be able to find more dupes to continue his climb.

It's not only that but also investors given https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/24/elon-musk-is-keeping-investors-dreams-of-a-tesla-robotaxi-alive.html. Their stock jumped despite a lousy quarter.

One has to give Elon credit: make people willing to pay many thousands of $ for "FSD" to be unpaid (rather paying) beta testers w/no set delivery date or guarantee that your vehicle will ever be able to drive itself w/no supervision and wash your hands of liability when there's an accident. And, those drivers provide Tesla w/tons of data for free. Genius!

 

[Ni Ph]

What the use of having so many Elon Fanboys lemmings, if you can exploit them

Bless! Blind devotion leads to ignorance

 

[Hugh Mannity]

FSD is amazing, but it’s going to take Tesla 5 more years to get it nailed. How do you sell a robotaxi until then? What a disaster!

Why do you figure it's going to take that long ? the AI version of FSD is low to no interventions at this point and Cruise and Waymo have paved the way against most/several Regulatory hurdles. What's left over other than a bit more fine tuning ? I'm no AI expert but on the earnings call they all had a "swagger in their voices" when they talked about how close FSD is to release. I have a feeling it's months not years away.

 

[Ni Ph]

I have a feeling it's months not years away.

You should bet everything you own on the stock, if you trust your feeling.

I own 2023 Tesla Model 3 and I don't even trust Autopilot 100%. Too many phantom braking situations in Highway driving. The elephant in the room is other drivers and the fact Elon bet everything on Vision. Vision based FSD will never get approval in Europe or UK where I live.

I have made plenty of money on Tesla buying in at the beginning of COVID, but luckily sold when Elon posed the infamous question on Twitter. He blew his wad on Twitter/X and I bought a Tesla (EV). Went back in at $170 but am regretting it now, but hoping the Fanboys will push it up Robotaxi BS/hype when that day comes, and I can get out for good.

 

[whitex]

Why do you figure it's going to take that long ? the AI version of FSD is low to no interventions at this point and Cruise and Waymo have paved the way against most/several Regulatory hurdles. What's left over other than a bit more fine tuning ? I'm no AI expert but on the earnings call they all had a "swagger in their voices" when they talked about how close FSD is to release. I have a feeling it's months not years away.

Same swagger Elon had in 2016 telling us about the Tesla Ride Sharing network coming in 2017? Or when he told investors Teslas are appreciating assets? Or when he told people in 2020 that by end of that year there will be a million Tesla robo-taxis on the road? One thing Elon is never short on is swagger in his voice.

 

[Bikeman]

Agreed on most all of the comments above. My 2023 Model Y, with less than 10,000 miles on it is now worth about $30,000 less due to this "appreciating asset" bull crap and their Save the Quarterly Sales Numbers philosophy. The FSD free trial has me convinced that Vision FSD should be scrapped completely. Car wants to drive into the curbs in the right lane. Drives right over the worst of potholes. Stops so slowly at stop signs that I could easily become a victim of road rage. Blasts away from the same stop sign (in FSD Chill mode, while also in regular Chill mode) that I could get a ticket for aggressive driving. Won't slow a bit in lanes that curve sharply. It had almost no chops whatsoever at a regular stop light. Literally could not see the ambulance that went past us and then through the intersection (I was the first car stopped at the line). And FSD still couldn't visualize it (because of the emergency flashing lights bug - still happening?). Trains are still semi trucks. I could go on about it all day but robo-taxis? That's their next best thing? If I was an investor, I'd be almost wanting to buy Toyota or GM stock at this point.

I don't know how all this will play out in the long run, but with Elon continuing as their savior, his Master Plan part 3 is never going to materialize.

 

[Tronguy]

Ha. It’s not as if there’s not the occasional fan boy out there. But when the thread gets kicked off by somebody saying, “Watch out for the fanbois!!!”, the activity to follow tends to be some facts, but mainly FUD in large, stinking amounts. I think it’s called “projecting”, where the posters figure that, since they’re making up $BS in large amounts, everybody else must be, too.

Unless it’s an invasion of the TeslaQ crowd, who kinda do that thing for money.

Notable for extra credit are the implications that Tesla and/or Musk are frauds, anybody who takes them at their word are sheeple or suckers, and so on.

It’s not that there might be some honest commentary. It’s just that it gets buried by the clowns.

 

[cwerdna]

Why do you figure it's going to take that long ? the AI version of FSD is low to no interventions at this point and Cruise and Waymo have paved the way against most/several Regulatory hurdles. What's left over other than a bit more fine tuning ? I'm no AI expert but on the earnings call they all had a "swagger in their voices" when they talked about how close FSD is to release. I have a feeling it's months not years away.

See Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal and what I quoted, for starters.

Let's assume Cruise was a fraud, See Waymo's miles between disengagements at 2022 Disengagement Report from California and 2023 Disengagement Reports from California at about 17,000. Waymo (formerly Google's self-driving car effort) has been at this for a very long time and they're not ready for customers use w/no drivers beyond some geo-fenced areas.

Look at what was shown off in 2012 by Google and a non-leader in the space Nissan in 2017 at Autonomous Car Progress. The 2015 and 2016 CA disengagements reports links no longer work but these copies should work:

Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2015

web.archive.org

Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 2016

web.archive.org

For "Cruise and Waymo have paved the way against most/several Regulatory hurdle", I guess you've missed a lot of news (e.g. push back from numerous communities, blow back and scrutiny that Cruise has been under in SF, for starters).

If Tesla were so close, they'd have actual robotaxi services with no safety drivers actually running around picking up passengers and would actually be reporting driving and incidents to Autonomous Vehicles - California DMV instead of that 0 or basically 0 that they've been submitting virtually every year.

Can you define what is "months" away? How many months? What will it do? Geofenced and within where? Picking up and dropping off in parking structures, garages, underground parking, parking lots and airports too? Weather conditions? What about construction zones and stopped vehicles (e.g. emergency and non-emergency, crashed vehicles, etc.)? What type of roads is it limited to? Safety driver at the wheel always ready to take over if things go south? If no safety driver, where's the infrastructure to get the cars unstuck? And, Tesla's assuming all legal and financial liability for accidents and car damage?