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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Acmykguy
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Interesting, it's important to note that this "settlement date" of July 15th is as of people who shorted the stock as of July 10th (3 business day settlements for US stocks). And it is right before the GS analyst came out with their 'downgrade' which I presume could have changed a lot of this stat. We'll see what happens when the next report comes out showing the shorts as of the end of today.
Not sure of market reaction to even positive news. With the current volume of production (roughly 5000 cars per month) nothing fundamentally has changed since last quarter, unless they can hugely deliver on the bottom line. A $200 stock price would make all of us happy but doesn't make sense for the current volumes and hence top line for Tesla. I realize for a growth stock the stock price is always ahead of results (and hence we are all in) but question is what is reasonable? I say market will settle at $150 to $160 for the next few months until we see multi-fold top-line growth. Any bets at what price we'll close 2013?
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Acmykguy
Member
sorry, per quarter. Too tired and still at work workin hard so I can buy me a Model S!!...
ShortSlaver
Member
I bought this morning a few contracts when TSLA was at about 120.40 and so far it's been a good deal.
I agree about the timing - I'm not 100% certain we have seen a bottom going into earnings but I sort of set 120 as my goal and got close enough. We'll see!
As for theta decay, I've been watching it and it hasn't been too prominent. I think with earnings in the middle of now and expiration, the main force controlling the price is the stock value.
Maybe if anything hedge a bit by buying a piece of the position you want to carry into ER.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I'm betting (for me) hughe on a good earnings beat. I'm holding Sep 150, 160 and 170 calls + a lesser ammount of Aug 150 and 160's. All in all current value of >70k (when I checked last, stock was around 123).
All my cash is in this ATM. Well, "all" is relative... I could always sell some. TSLA (promised myself not to), sell some other stock or use a bit more of my savings (alloted for other purposes than gambling). Would like some good advice on what to do if there's another attack on the stock, like the GS-BS or what Curt is describing above: large funds taking down tight stop losses. Buy even more???
Also, I worry a little about liquidity, but maybe unessecarily? Would it be any problem offloading several hundred of the above mentioned Sep calls or could I face very large bid-ask spreads?
If there is a little run-up just before Aug 7th would you guys sell the Aug 150 and 160 before or hold over tve report?
Good luck everyone!
All my cash is in this ATM. Well, "all" is relative... I could always sell some. TSLA (promised myself not to), sell some other stock or use a bit more of my savings (alloted for other purposes than gambling). Would like some good advice on what to do if there's another attack on the stock, like the GS-BS or what Curt is describing above: large funds taking down tight stop losses. Buy even more???
Also, I worry a little about liquidity, but maybe unessecarily? Would it be any problem offloading several hundred of the above mentioned Sep calls or could I face very large bid-ask spreads?
If there is a little run-up just before Aug 7th would you guys sell the Aug 150 and 160 before or hold over tve report?
Good luck everyone!
well said bonnie1194! Leilani's speech and " the toast" rocked me all the way to the east coast with emotion.
ShortSlaver
Member
I'm betting (for me) hughe on a good earnings beat. I'm holding Sep 150, 160 and 170 calls + a lesser ammount of Aug 150 and 160's. All in all current value of >70k (when I checked last, stock was around 123).
All my cash is in this ATM. Well, "all" is relative... I could always sell some. TSLA (promised myself not to), sell some other stock or use a bit more of my savings (alloted for other purposes than gambling). Would like some good advice on what to do if there's another attack on the stock, like the GS-BS or what Curt is describing above: large funds taking down tight stop losses. Buy even more???
Also, I worry a little about liquidity, but maybe unessecarily? Would it be any problem offloading several hundred of the above mentioned Sep calls or could I face very large bid-ask spreads?
If there is a little run-up just before Aug 7th would you guys sell the Aug 150 and 160 before or hold over tve report?
Good luck everyone!
You are incredibly optimistic, but if it is a massive beat, you're going to be rich.
I wouldn't worry about liquidity if it's getting towards that price- there will be plenty of buying going on.
I can't tell you what to do on a run-up, but do what makes sense for you.
Man, that's a big bet you got riding out there! Good luck!
I'm not sure why the stock would have a huge bump if they exceed Q2 estimates. Some bump, but the stocks current valuation seems to expect things going well for years with Gen3 selling lots of cars. An extra 500 cars shipped in Q2 doesn't seem to have much material impact on that long term expectation. At some point, Tesla's valuation has to come at least within an order of magnitude (by which I mean 2x, not 10x) of that of other auto vendors. Tesla's valuation is currently way out there because of the future potential rather than Q2 potential.
Then again, short term stock movement always seems pretty irrational to me
Then again, short term stock movement always seems pretty irrational to me
Remember that 25% of the stock is still held short, besides this stock isent being played on valuation at all. Even if value was the reason, some analysis still have its $200-300 on full capacity value.
A good earnings will always bump the stock, but what people here are looking at are not just the usual 5-10% bump an earning beat commonly gives, but add in the short side having the bail out and buy in as well. Just look at today, Facebook had a earnings beat and with a small short squeeze put up a 25% gain this morning. This is probably in the realm of what Tesla will get on a beat as well.
Major resistance around 123 on low volume today.
A good earnings will always bump the stock, but what people here are looking at are not just the usual 5-10% bump an earning beat commonly gives, but add in the short side having the bail out and buy in as well. Just look at today, Facebook had a earnings beat and with a small short squeeze put up a 25% gain this morning. This is probably in the realm of what Tesla will get on a beat as well.
Major resistance around 123 on low volume today.
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ShortSlaver
Member
I'm not sure why the stock would have a huge bump if they exceed Q2 estimates. Some bump, but the stocks current valuation seems to expect things going well for years with Gen3 selling lots of cars. An extra 500 cars shipped in Q2 doesn't seem to have much material impact on that long term expectation. At some point, Tesla's valuation has to come at least within an order of magnitude (by which I mean 2x, not 10x) of that of other auto vendors. Tesla's valuation is currently way out there because of the future potential rather than Q2 potential.
Then again, short term stock movement always seems pretty irrational to me
Right, but posting a profit when it's universally agreed the quarter will be a loss is massive. In addition, as you probably know having been around here a long time, there's a very good chance for vastly improved guidance as many here also believe that they've been sandbagging on that.
I mean, last quarter it was believed that since they announced a month early they would be profitable that the price was baked in. Turned out they were more profitable than expected and here we are.
I guess I don't get why it'd be "massive". The current stock price is assuming Tesla will grow to a serious competitor shipping 200,000 a year. So they ship an extra 500 cars in Q2 and swing EPS by a few cents to the plus side. Why is that massive in the long term 200,000 cars a year scheme of things that's currently justifying TSLA's price?
I get a 5-10% bump. Tesla is a bit ahead of the curve, less risk, etc. But unlike Q1, it's not some corner turned, it's just a little farther down the path the stock value is already expecting. I suppose I'm playing devil's advocate a bit, but if the stock's huge valuation is based on the future, a slightly profitable Q2 just means the future is a little closer rather fundamentally different than after Q1.
Personally i think your looking at this wrong way in the sense of value. I think its well established that this stock price is not built by valuation in the least bit but on hype, growth potential and innovation. Even if valued on expectations of 200k cars, they could make 500k or build a new factory for even more. The stock price is being set not by what they are doing or probably will do, but what some people believe they can achieve 5-10-30 years from now. Every time Tesla earning show a win it only helps fuel the fact they know what they are doing and who knows what they can be capable of since they already shook the auto market.
Also remember alot of people were giving Tesla a hard time that they were only profitable on ZEV credits. Well if credits go down but still make profit then that also would turn a few naysayers onto Tesla's side. They were quick to point out the profit was credit based and that could turn around.
Also a massive up move after Q2 report could be fueled by the short sellers, after a 5-10% bump some of the shorts might get squeezed again and we are off and running.
Also remember alot of people were giving Tesla a hard time that they were only profitable on ZEV credits. Well if credits go down but still make profit then that also would turn a few naysayers onto Tesla's side. They were quick to point out the profit was credit based and that could turn around.
Also a massive up move after Q2 report could be fueled by the short sellers, after a 5-10% bump some of the shorts might get squeezed again and we are off and running.
My app is showing Tesla to lose .16c this quarter with revenue of 402M (can someone confirm these numbers?)
If they were to beat the -.16c with a +.01, that would be an insane beat. So, the way the market views this, is that @$120, they should lose -.16. Anything less will shift the price lower, anything above will rocket the price up. If the high man (highest estimate) is beaten, the stock will blow out, and fueled by the short sellers, the movement will be accelerated.
There are some minor details that could change this... like the lease accounting and how many vehicles are sold via Tesla Financing. If a higher percentage of vehicles are sold as a lease, the EPS will be lower than estimates... but if we have higher revenue because more vehicles are sold, then the street could forgive Tesla.
Plus future guidance is, of course, important. If Elon bumps the current estimate from 21k to 25k (which is what I believe will happen), then the stock should move up again. In addition, everyone is watching gross margin. This needs to be on target for 25% by the end of the year.
So, according to Nasdaq.com, the consensus forecast is -.36c for this quarter. The low/high is -0.45 and -0.26, respectively. It's very unlikely they will post a profit... but if they did... wow. Every quarter afterwards would continue adding more lease profit and the shorts would be destroyed so hard.
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Just a terminology nit, but I think you don't mean "stock" you mean "float". That is, shares that might actually be actively traded. Elon, many institutional investers, and some funds can't sell shares.
Wow, think of the squeeze if 25% of the issued stock was shorted!
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