Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Curt Renz]

Here's a link to details from the Argonne National Laboratory regarding the president's visit tomorrow afternoon to promote his alternative energy policies: Details on Obama visit | Argonne National Laboratory

Argonne runs a government funded program with a mission to develop batteries that are five times more powerful yet five times cheaper: [FONT=&amp]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1xEjxVZ1N4 [/FONT]

The president's speech is estimated to begin at 1:30 pm CDT and can be viewed through this link: The White House

 

[Zzzz...]

At least in a last few days TSLA seems to be closely following SCTY. Or other way around... Today's dip - is everything Ok with Musk's health?

Like I mean NASDAQ is up, but look at above-mentioned charts...

 

[kenliles]

Musk is fine and tweeting as usual
SCTY had bigger losses than expected
Tesla- shorts stopped covering and starting adding


Interactive Charts

 

[aznt1217]

Wondering when I should add more...

 

[Johan]

Market manipulation by which methods do you suppose? Are you saying some with options are selling now (with lower profits than otherwise, ~$2 per share) but they stand to loose more on their options should the price stay high or go higher?

I also believe the downwards pressure is somewhat artificial and in some big player's interest ahead of big chunks of options expiring...

 

[Curt Renz]

Musk is fine and tweeting as usual
SCTY had bigger losses than expected
Tesla- shorts stopped covering and starting adding

I can't find Musk tweets after March 10.

The SCTY losses were announced after the close on March 6 which led to a big drop on March 7.

The recent TSLA shorting may be related to manipulative strategies, particularly by hedge funds, prior to tomorrow's options expiration.

It appears that most of the manipulation was done to TSLA during the first hour this morning, then they waited an hour to attack SCTY.

Those who pressure the stock are aided by it falling through the stop loss limits set by others. This leads to a snowballing effect. Then others without stops are nevertheless scared into bailing out.

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Market manipulation by which methods do you suppose? Are you saying some with options are selling now (with lower profits than otherwise, ~$2 per share) but they stand to loose more on their options should the price stay high or go higher?

Yes.

I also believe the downwards pressure is somewhat artificial and in some big player's interest ahead of big chunks of options expiring?

Agreed.

 

[NigelM]

IMO the price was too high and, after the price stopped rising due to the lack of demand for more, a pullback was to be expected.

Look at the trend-line (red) since Nov 1st; I don't see that very much changed in the fundamentals so I'll postulate the continued rise could never be sustainable:

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BTW, for anyone who likes to consider pairing trends here is the comparative movement of TSLA (blue) with Toyota (red) over the last 7 months (effectively since deliveries started):

 

[joefee]

I think we are seeing the hedge effects coupled with the heavy resistance at $40…failing to break 40 will cause further weakness.

 

[Norbert]

IMO the price was too high and, after the price stopped rising due to the lack of demand for more, a pullback was to be expected.

Look at the trend-line (red) since Nov 1st; I don't see that very much changed in the fundamentals so I'll postulate the continued rise could never be sustainable:


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BTW, for anyone who likes to consider pairing trends here is the comparative movement of TSLA (blue) with Toyota (red) over the last 7 months (effectively since deliveries started):

Isn't the fact that Tesla is reaching steady production at target levels, and profitability (though the latter not proven yet) not something that should increase the share price above usual trends?

 

[Citizen-T]

Isn't the fact that Tesla is reaching steady production at target levels, and profitability (though the latter not proven yet) not something that should increase the share price above usual trends?

The steady production did increase us above the range we were in. Remember, not too long ago we we couldn't get to $35. Profitability doesn't seem to be juicing the stock very much, not sure why.

I think we are stuck in this range until we get some news.

 

[NigelM]

Isn't the fact that Tesla is reaching steady production at target levels, and profitability (though the latter not proven yet) not something that should increase the share price above usual trends?

To an extent, but I picked November as a start point because Tesla was already ramping up at that time. You can see the stock price ramp through to that end of year plateau, it's the rise above $36 that I think is unsustainable without proving profitability.

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Profitability doesn't seem to be juicing the stock very much, not sure why.

Because for the market it's all hot air until Tesla actually shows the numbers.

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I think we are stuck in this range until we get some news.

I agree. The question is what is the range? ~$34-$38 ?

 

[Sandman]

I agree. The question is what is the range? ~$34-$38 ?

I'd say 34.50 - 39 is the current range and I'd speculate that once Tesla confirms not only that it is at expected production rates but that it has met the GPM goals they've set, the stock won't move out of that range. Based on earnings release date for 4Q, do we expect a 1Q release sometime early-mid May? That's a long time for the stock to sit in this range but the last 9 months follows that trend of sitting in a 4-5 range for months until earnings or leaks break the trend.

 

[blakegallagher]

I think 40 will be smashed when q1 numbers are released .... and most likely the week leading up to it. The ZEV credits for q1 along with Tesla laying off temp workers as well as reducing the average shift time will bring them into the black. It is also becoming obvious that Tesla has enough orders coming in to produce at a 20,000 rate for years to come. I personally think the hedge fund managers helped this along because they want to purchase options/shares at a discounted rate for the upcoming april report. All that being said ... who knows .... will be interesting to see what Tesla does if the Market has a pullback tommorow .... I have bought a few options on this dip but I am hoping it goes lower so I can get more of a discount.

Any Technical Traders out there want to share their view on what Tsla might do with no new news?

Edit: I realized I was assuming a april report date for q1 based off of nothing but pure speculation ...

 

[SteveG3]

I agree, the question is what's the range.

I nibbled a little here, but have orders split up to buy in increments down to $35. I did this increment approach with another stock for years and it worked out well. these are trading shares, I don't sell my core holdings.

 

[NigelM]

I think 40 will be smashed when q1 numbers are released ....

If Q1 isn't profitable, then the stock will smash $30 in a downward loop.
If Q1 hits expectations. Meh.
If Q1 really suggests a good profitable path, the sky's the limit.

 

[SteveG3]

Nigel, perhaps I am taking you too literally, but I think it would take a major derailment for the stock to break $30.

by derailment I mean something making 20,000 units look doubtful, i.e. a recall, and/or production holdup, rather than missing eps estimates.

other scenario I see stock getting close to 30 would be 15%+ market selloff. even then, I think Tesla for a short-time might take an outsized hit, but would rebound decently through year even if market stays down.

 

[NigelM]

Personally, I don't think the market cares too much whether Tesla produces 15k or 25k cars this year. The market will care big time if Tesla doesn't show profitability as (more or less) promised.

Caveat: I'm an idiot and I could be way off. Follow my opinion at your own risk. :smile:

 

[ckessel]

As usual, the movement just looks like insanity to my untrained eye. There was not much reason for it to crash after the Q4 earnings call, then not really much reason for to go back up, and no reason for it to take a huge nose dive again today.

 

[Norbert]

If Q1 isn't profitable, then the stock will smash $30 in a downward loop.
If Q1 hits expectations. Meh.
If Q1 really suggests a good profitable path, the sky's the limit.

I don't see much of a difference between "hits expectations" and "suggests a good profitable path", as I'd expect Tesla to invest any larger profits in stores, service centers, hiring, Superchargers and other growth-oriented investments. That difference, I'd expect, won't be easily visible in the quarterly numbers (except perhaps to those who look for that difference).

 

[aznt1217]

Got a few shares on this dip. Forced myself lol