Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[SteveG3]

funny caveat.

to me, we're not idiots... just a crazy market at times. and sometimes market knows how to take crazy a step further into crazy I never knew even existed.

Personally, I don't think the market cares too much whether Tesla produces 15k or 25k cars this year. The market will care big time if Tesla doesn't show profitability as (more or less) promised.

Caveat: I'm an idiot and I could be way off. Follow my opinion at your own risk. :smile:

 

[fluxemag]

I think part of the problem is that TSLA is a great day trading stock. Low share price, decent volume(but not too high) and violent swings in price. I've even considered scalping it.

 

[joefee]

@NigelM "Caveat: I'm an idiot and I could be way off. Follow my opinion at your own risk."

Hey… I resemble that remark!

 

[aznt1217]

Days like this are extremely depressing. Which is usually a good indication to pick up more.

Pretty sure shorts are resuming today and the run up was a slow winding down of positions.

 

[ckessel]

It's bounced off of the 39-40 mark 3 times now and absolutely crashed every time afterwards. Makes zero sense to me, but I guess I should dump the bulk of my holdings next time.

 

[NuclearPowered]

It's bounced off of the 39-40 mark 3 times now and absolutely crashed every time afterwards. Makes zero sense to me, but I guess I should dump the bulk of my holdings next time.

Thats what everyone thought this time based on how its moving.

 

[Citizen-T]

It's bounced off of the 39-40 mark 3 times now and absolutely crashed every time afterwards. Makes zero sense to me, but I guess I should dump the bulk of my holdings next time.

"Bulk" is a scary word, but yes, raising some cash might be a good idea. Let's wait and see what the landscape looks like next time we make a run at $40.

Dipping my toe back in the water today. Seems fine.

 

[Beckler]

Days like this are extremely depressing. Which is usually a good indication to pick up more.

This is the nature of the stock, I'm learning. If it tanks any more into the lower 30's, I'll add to my position.

 

[ckessel]

Thats what everyone thought this time based on how its moving.

Yep. I kept thinking there must be sanity to the movement at some point, so I simply sit on the stock. Silly optimist in me, there is no sanity.

 

[bonnie]

Yep. I kept thinking there must be sanity to the movement at some point, so I simply sit on the stock. Silly optimist in me, there is no sanity.

Unless you're planning on selling, price swings are merely paper exercises. (Though I admit it's still hard to watch!) You know it will go back up.

On the plus side, I did replace some of my position that I'd sold at 39.25. And have kept some dry powder 'just in case'.

 

[zeed]

"Bulk" is a scary word, but yes, raising some cash might be a good idea. Let's wait and see what the landscape looks like next time we make a run at $40.

Dipping my toe back in the water today. Seems fine.

Can we rule out a major negative event? (ie. Widespread recall, elon not well, etc..). In other words, could the tide be receeding before a tidal wave?

 

[c041v]

It's bounced off of the 39-40 mark 3 times now and absolutely crashed every time afterwards. Makes zero sense to me, but I guess I should dump the bulk of my holdings next time.

Agreed. The $40 mark just seems to be impenetrable right now. It was even parked at $39.XX for quite some time earlier in the week. Makes no sense, but I unloaded half thinking that history would repeat itself. I am now just waiting for that sweet re-entry spot around $34.50. I'll stop playing this game as the Q1 report nears and hope for Nigel's #3 Scenario.

 

[bonnie]

Can we rule out a major negative event? (ie. Widespread recall, elon not well, etc..). In other words, could the tide be receeding before a tidal wave?

Hah! This forum is always one step ahead of major negative events ... that's one of the reasons it is read/quoted so heavily. Crowd-sourced info: Not quite insider-info, but darn close.

 

[Doug_G]

Can we rule out a major negative event? (ie. Widespread recall, elon not well, etc..).

We can't rule out a major unfounded rumor. Conveniently, you just started it.

 

[zeed]

Hah! This forum is always one step ahead of major negative events ... that's one of the reasons it is read/quoted so heavily. Crowd-sourced info: Not quite insider-info, but darn close.

Indeed, this forum is ahead of all others. Though, we've been late to the dinner table many times. Could a rumor of an impending event tare down the stock to major suport befor the news cycle pounds it down even further?

 

[aznt1217]

Depends on what it is. I remember last year in the beginning of the year I believe 2 engineers left Tesla which led to a flash crash of -20% on a Friday. I think in that scenario it was because the Model S was in its final stages of launch prep. Elon came out after hours and said the Model S was still on track. Stock fully recovered +20% on that Monday.

 

[bonnie]

Can we rule out a major negative event? (ie. Widespread recall, elon not well, etc..). In other words, could the tide be receeding before a tidal wave?

We can't rule out a major unfounded rumor. Conveniently, you just started it.

Indeed, this forum is ahead of all others. Though, we've been late to the dinner table many times. Could a rumor of an impending event tare down the stock to major suport befor the news cycle pounds it down even further?

Of course anything is possible. But I doubt it. I saw today as a buying opportunity. If you're worried about rumors and/or impending events, then you should trust your gut (and not people like me on a forum).

 

[Zzzz...]

I'm wondering, there are lots of puts in the money, but not that many calls... Dose it create upward pressure on stock price? Or downward one? Or impossible to tell...

Indeed, this forum is ahead of all others. Though, we've been late to the dinner table many times. Could a rumor of an impending event tare down the stock to major suport befor the news cycle pounds it down even further?

I would not read into news that much, when Elon announced that TM was cash flow positive for a week in November, market gone down on the next day. On the other hand on a bad news (was a departure of chief engineer, I mean who cares?) stock gone down like crazy next day, but recovered in a month or so... So market reacts in weird ways sometimes.

 

[johnmodels]

What makes me nervous that that I believe the market as a whole is very over bought, and will see a good bit of downward pressure very soon. Of course I could be wrong..... If we are at 35 now and we see market downward pressure I could easily see un going under 30. Right now that (30ish) is where I see a safe re-entry point assuming you are like me and unloaded around 39. FWIW I do own a S85KW. Any thoughts on this???
John

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Indeed, this forum is ahead of all others. Though, we've been late to the dinner table many times. Could a rumor of an impending event tare down the stock to major suport befor the news cycle pounds it down even further?

I see nothing on Google News that indicates anything is amiss. The first place that any rumors would show up... is probably here Market has only open 3 hours today and volume is already relatively high. Maybe some profit taking is happening?

I find short-term price movements interesting, but I would never base buying or selling based on them. By the time I've analyzed the cause of the movements, the market has moved on and it's too late for me to capitalize on the information. Looking at short term stuff should be purely entertainment for most people, but only if they can stomach it.