+1. Perfect management for a long term mission oriented perspective and why I stay long TSLA
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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+1. Perfect management for a long term mission oriented perspective and why I stay long TSLA
Maintaining production levels do not improve gross margin. Lowering costs or increasing output does.
He was thinking one step ahead: To lower cost you streamline production, for which maintaining steady production levels is highly useful.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Monday will be my first chance to wire money to my broker since the Q1 results (got to love bank holidays...), hopefully there will be no pullback before Tuesday.
TSLA has been a great stock so far, I was doubting to sell before the Q1 results but glad I didn't. Last Friday I reached 100% (theoretical) profit so I'm very happy.
I have time and I'm very curious to follow the stock in the next months
TSLA has been a great stock so far, I was doubting to sell before the Q1 results but glad I didn't. Last Friday I reached 100% (theoretical) profit so I'm very happy.
I have time and I'm very curious to follow the stock in the next months
I think Monday's trading will tell us a lot about where the stock is headed. I was surprised that with such a high volume the stock hit only $81. I expected it to reach $100+. However to your point Don, there are a lot of moving parts here and it's very difficult to split out what's driving the price. Lets see where the stock goes on Monday.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I think I agree with DonP. Still a ton of shorts and lots of short term trading happening. New money coming in. Long and short.
Also keep in mind that people who got 2-day margin calls based on Thursday's +25% closing price have to cover their positions today. Those who got them based on Friday's additional 10% hike have through tomorrow to cover.
Also, don't forget about the announcements. Right now investors have been focused on earnings, so I think it is unclear whether the announcements are currently factored into the price. Some really exciting news would be another stage of the rocket igniting (sorry, couldn't resist SpaceX metaphor :smile.
Also, don't forget about the announcements. Right now investors have been focused on earnings, so I think it is unclear whether the announcements are currently factored into the price. Some really exciting news would be another stage of the rocket igniting (sorry, couldn't resist SpaceX metaphor :smile
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Also keep in mind that people who got 2-day margin calls based on Thursday's +25% closing price have to cover their positions today. Those who got them based on Friday's additional 10% hike have through tomorrow to cover.
Also, don't forget about the announcements. Right now investors have been focused on earnings, so I think it is unclear whether the announcements are currently factored into the price. Some really exciting news would be another stage of the rocket igniting (sorry, couldn't resist SpaceX metaphor :smile
Agreed! And this why I'm using parts of my realized profits from options trading the past 2 weeks to set myself up for an aggresive exposure to a continued upwards movement this week through call option buys at market open today. A bit of a gamble but IMO worth betting on.
jeff_adams
Member
I have a theory that Elon will be setting a trap for the shorts soon. If my theory is correct, I expect to see some type of negative news or ugly rumor about Tesla after the supercharger announcement and right before the 5th announcement/demonstration. This will cause a dip in value and a rush of shorts that believe the stock is overvalued. As soon as they are committed short, Elon will do the demonstration and it will cause the value to skyrocket (I suspect he started off with the weakest announcement and is building towards the jaw dropping demostration finale). As the stock gets crazy high, Elon and other executives will cash in and the company will have plenty of cash to operate without worry (thanks to the greedy shorts)
I don't see how this could benefit the company unless they do another secondary offering. When you buy stock on the market, you're buying it from other investors, not from the company, so they're not directly affected by the share price.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Morgan Stanley temporarily upped their price target to $77 while needing more time for a full analysis.
In the past, their rating and price target changes have moved the stock price significantly. I wonder if it will have an impact today. The fact that they put it at $77, which is pretty much last Friday's closing price, maybe not this time...
In the past, their rating and price target changes have moved the stock price significantly. I wonder if it will have an impact today. The fact that they put it at $77, which is pretty much last Friday's closing price, maybe not this time...
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@mulder1231: This 13May2013 Morgan Stanley "realistic" target increase to $77 should set off the remaining analysts, some of whom, incredibly, have not revised upward their pre Dec 2012 before Tesla reached the 400 car/week milestone.
I especially liked its short-igniting summary: "The Tesla debate has moved on from questions of viability to measuring the success and sustainable competitive advantage of [Tesla], triggering a dramatic compression of the implied risk premium."
My theory on next few days:
Factor 1: Analysts are influenced by factors having nothing to do with actual outlook of a company--in particular, continually balancing fearing loss of reputation between being too bearish vs. too bullish. Given the Thurs and Fri post-1Q2013 rally, I think now bearish analysts like Deutsche Bank and Pacific Crest will pass the tipping point into being more worried about missing the boat--especially as they're looking pretty clueless with targets about half Friday's price, and raise them near Morgan Stanley's new $77/shr target--which itself has potential for further raises given the note's odd "target under review" title.
Factor 2: Big rise from 55.79 Wed 08May2013, pre 1Q2013 results, to 76.76 close Friday 10May2013 can be explained solely by massive market realization Tesla is for real, and the Consumer Reports 99/100 test, without invoking short covering--despite the media's general crediting the rise to this. I think it's plausible roughly equal numbers of shorts saw the light and covered, as new shorts entered, thinking now it's REALLY overvalued.
Factor 3: Latest short interest figures are 37.3% 30Apr2013, when TSLA had run up to 53.99. This was a decrease of 10% from 42.1% 15Apr2013, but not a massive covering. It seems plausible that most shorts were frozen in disbelief at the 1Q2013 spike, not convinced their bear case is dead, and still holding on, and have been joined by new shorts at the post 1Q2013 highs. This doesn't imply anything about short interest as of Fri 10May2013, but given this in-denial factor, I think it's plausible short interest as of Friday is almost the same as 30Apr2013.
Factor 4: I suspect some analysts delayed updating targets Thursday, the day after 1Q2013 results, to allow clients with large short positions to cover. Unethical but plausible. But they probably won't wait more than 3 days after Thursday, given margin calls coming and mounting threat to reputations from targets wildly below market. More target raises should set off further short covering.
Therefore as we get a piling in by analysts to $77-plus targets, this fairly strong floor will slowly destroy short hopes of a pullback--suggesting the real short squeeze is yet to come.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
First of all Elon and the other insiders probably will not be selling off large ammounts of stock, their stock sales are pre-determined and most of the times directly coupled with call options that are being exercised in accordance with a pre-determined time plan. Also, even if Elon sold a lot of stock and "cashed" in this would be his money, not the company's. The only way Tesla would benefit from a high stock price would be to time a stock offering while the price is high.
Your theory of a "trap" is interesting, but I honestly don't think they would themselves put out a negative rumor or negative news, there is enough of that from the short's camp already without Tesla having to contribute.
Electric vehicles: Tesla recharges the battery-car market | The Economist
great article in The Economist, mentions the short-sellers feeling the pain :smile:
great article in The Economist, mentions the short-sellers feeling the pain :smile:
I hope for more "musking" aka being awesome, this week
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Article is pretty outdated. But nonetheless still good press.
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Article is pretty outdated. But nonetheless still good press.
InTheShadows
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