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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Elon's comment on Hyperloop...

"If no one else builds the prototype, I probably will," Musk said. "Maybe in a few years if there isn't one, I'd build it. I think it'd be a super fun ride. It'd be like Space Mountain but when you get out you're somewhere else."


Cool!
 
that was an text-book like wedge that was forming up this morning, then it broke out

Something happened on the nasdaq.... I don't think it's TSLA specific.

Update: oh boy.....this is getting good.....

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What happened at 12:10?

ECB: Negative Interest Rates Are an Option
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013...est-rates-are-an-option/?mod=wsj_nview_latest

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Going up on big volume......stabilizing on low volume. Oh boy.....
 
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Going up on big volume......stabilizing on low volume. Oh boy.....


That's the intraday, do keep in mind the overall picture as the day isn't over. I'm looking at today's volume and it has me a little worried because it's lower than I expect it to be while the stock is up today.

Yesterday's after hours price movement after Elon's interview really made me think that TSLA is in a reversal. Honestly, I nearly jumped back in this morning at the 138 low until I realized how much the stock was up in relation to the volume.

Earlier in the week, I wrote about the possibility of a bear pennant forming and revised what I thought last night:


I was doing some analysis and it's looking like the bear pennant that I thought was forming may actually not continue to play out as it isn't behaving "normally". Then again, TSLA is known as a "rule breaker" among the bigger pundits so this is nothing new.

Today's interview with Elon Musk may have just been the catalyst to change the perception that has been weighing down TSLA since last week's Q3 earnings report. With that, I can now see a scenario where TSLA completely reverses its downward trend and start clawing its way through the 140s and possibly higher. I think we can expect to see a lot of resistance at around 147-148 and if it manages to break above that, more resistance at the 100-day moving average which as of today is at 152.67. Expect TSLA to trade between 138-147 for the next couple of days.


At the moment, I'm revising that again. The bear pennant could actually still be in play IF at the close, volume isn't above 11.5M. Finishing lower than 11.5M would be a significant enough drop in volume while the pennant narrows, which is the typical patter of a bear pennant.
 
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