Well this worked fantastically. Sold a pair of 272.5 puts today at 4.65.
Lots of buying power this time around if we drop into the low 260s. With Apple dragging the market down tomorrow we might get there.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Well this worked fantastically. Sold a pair of 272.5 puts today at 4.65.
Lots of buying power this time around if we drop into the low 260s. With Apple dragging the market down tomorrow we might get there.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Happy with the apple drop, not really happy with it dragging the market down. I guess we needed some pain to fulfill my wishes.
About 60% of the people has something invested in apple. They have been doing great lately. However, what I am seeing is an influx of newly "Made" stock traders who think they are hot shot and is the god of trading, but their only success is apple. This creates a noise that drags in other unsuspecting newbies that thinks they can make it, not understanding that the stock market is a zero sum game. Who loses if everyone wins?
Tesla's two weeks run up is beginning. The last time, it was our prophet Adam Jones (I am already starting to forget his name) who did the downgrade to start the manipulation. The biggest lesson for anyone following this forum is to understand the amount of manipulation that goes into this market. That nothing is a coincidence. The game of throne permeates everything. I hope this doesn't sound too surreal to most of you and it'll eventually sink in, because I know it definitely sounded too much of a conspiracy theory for me when I first started out 15 years ago. If you've lost playing TSLA (not likely at this price), at least learn this lesson.
Thanks for Ben Callo for withstand the temptation of selling out.
Got myself a 29" monitor and a 40" TV and building out my PC at the moment. You can expect some quality analysis in a short bit. It kind of feels good
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This is exactly why I believe that investors will inevitably win, while prospects are much less clear for traders and speculators.
Today's decline in share price due to the questionable judgment of UBS seems suspiciously timed. However, in the grand scheme of things it is most likely inconsequential.
mejojo
Active Member
I can say that in November '14 I truly did not "get" this. Trading just shares previously, I was less pained by drops.
Gambling on options teaches this hard lesson, very hardly.
An interesting anecdote. I made some trades in my open account during the day, this is where I make short-term and buy-on-the dip transactions. Just logged into my long-term account and I have 5 different contracts of 10, different strike prices, different dates - prices from 170 - 300 strikes, Jan 2016-Jan 2017....none traded today. With over 6 million shares "traded" none of my long-term options contracts saw a single trade to cause them to reprise on the brokerage system.
UBS - Swiss for Tempest in a Tea Cup.
UBS - Swiss for Tempest in a Tea Cup.
I don't blame the sellers of leaps for hanging onto their contracts, rather than participating in the UBS Madness sale. The fact that none of your contract types traded hands today says something about how contract-holders apparently shrugged off the long-term implications of UBS's message.
Note, too, how this downgrade came while TSLA was poised to break its ATH. There's no coincidence in the timing of this hit piece.
I think the bears are defending the all time closing high hard. This is the second time it's been knocked down from the 280s on suspiciously-timed, weakly-supported downgrades. The good thing is the highs and lows have been getting higher and Model X is around the corner. ER will be interesting.
EldestOyster
Member
Well, Tesla is run by a guy who thinks through the detailed plan. This is the company that skates to where the puck is going to be. Accepting that, if they guided for 15k, then they are smart enough to have worked out how to deliver those vehicles (whichever models they produce).
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Well, they've been handling peak deliveries in the 3rd month of every quarter, so in March 2015, they did about 5650 deliveries. In Q4, 2014 they did about 5100 deliveries. So if they operate a those peak levels for 3 months, they can hit almost 17,000 deliveries. Of course, they are now also bigger in terms of staffing and they have more service centers. So it's not out of the question, but they have to start in Q3 to ramp up.
Just got email. Q2 results August 5.
Tesla Announces Release Date for Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results
PALO ALTO, CA*-- (Marketwired) --*07/22/15*-- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces that it will post its financial results for the second quarter ended*June 30, 2015, after market close on*Wednesday, August 5, 2015. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release containing a link to the Q2 2015 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at*2:30pm Pacific Time*(5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
Tesla Announces Release Date for Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results
PALO ALTO, CA*-- (Marketwired) --*07/22/15*-- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announces that it will post its financial results for the second quarter ended*June 30, 2015, after market close on*Wednesday, August 5, 2015. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release containing a link to the Q2 2015 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at*2:30pm Pacific Time*(5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Maybe TMC can put a count down to ER at the top of the Web site just like for TMConnect.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Yeah you'd expect this one to be pretty upbeat. If they delivered record number of cars and beat the predictions... that ought to translate to an unexpectedly large amount of money. I suppose the only thing they haven't revealed is Supercharger costs (though that is somewhat calculatable), and capex etc. associated with getting X ready.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Sorry if my post convinced people to buy yesterday. I felt really good about buying yesterday until I saw the week close and the poor reaction to AAPL earnings.
same here.
But for those that thought they would never see $260 again, great time to buy now.
Krugerrand
Meow
Then again.....yep, there it goes making everything right in the world. :wink: TSLA is like the weather in certain corners of the world...wait 5 minutes.
I feel that Tesla will soften language to meet 55K guidance or re-adjust that number lower in the quarter based on the following thoughts.
- Ludicrous mode is great, but not completely unexpected provided insane mode was already well received. For example, I cannot now wish for another viral video. Ludicrous mode will NOT help generate additional sales. It may however, make some folks upgrade.
- There is not much talk about 70 compared to 70D on TMC. This remains inconclusive for now since we don't have much data on reservation.
- Since Tesla announced Model S upgrade on Friday, there is no way they want to kill that by introducing Model X this week or may be following week. So, I feel that, and as Tesla has pointed out, the first deliveries in fact will happen at the end of September. This reduces my projection of Model X to be less than 5000 for the year. Elon recently mentioned that only 30% of parts are shared between the two cars and hence it will have complex programming in the new production lines that includes more suppliers and resources to train. New complex line does not give me enough confidence to be 100% functional from get go. I know Tesla will get this right, but may not be quick enough for a huge ramp.
- In my calculations, Tesla has to ship 28K Model S this year to get to somewhere around 50K (+~5K Model X - unreal actually). Q3 delivery should be around 13-14K to stay on target. Q4 is tougher with 15K Model S.
I am a little skeptical, but Model X reveal is important, and MAY offset this concern.
- Ludicrous mode is great, but not completely unexpected provided insane mode was already well received. For example, I cannot now wish for another viral video. Ludicrous mode will NOT help generate additional sales. It may however, make some folks upgrade.
- There is not much talk about 70 compared to 70D on TMC. This remains inconclusive for now since we don't have much data on reservation.
- Since Tesla announced Model S upgrade on Friday, there is no way they want to kill that by introducing Model X this week or may be following week. So, I feel that, and as Tesla has pointed out, the first deliveries in fact will happen at the end of September. This reduces my projection of Model X to be less than 5000 for the year. Elon recently mentioned that only 30% of parts are shared between the two cars and hence it will have complex programming in the new production lines that includes more suppliers and resources to train. New complex line does not give me enough confidence to be 100% functional from get go. I know Tesla will get this right, but may not be quick enough for a huge ramp.
- In my calculations, Tesla has to ship 28K Model S this year to get to somewhere around 50K (+~5K Model X - unreal actually). Q3 delivery should be around 13-14K to stay on target. Q4 is tougher with 15K Model S.
I am a little skeptical, but Model X reveal is important, and MAY offset this concern.
sub
Active Member
I'm good with anything in the 260's as a close today, stop the bleeding and keep us above the 2 day drop from a week ago.
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