Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Johan]

I'm tuned in!

SpaceX CRS-6 Launch on Livestream

Me too! T minus 2 min 20 seconds til the stream starts... Ooh I wish they nail the landing too! The saying is you want the rocket to take off, but there will be a new saying in the future "look at that rocket land!"

 

[SteveG3]

Elon Musk @elonmusk · 2m2 minutes ago

Ascent successful. Dragon enroute to Space Station. Rocket landed on droneship, but too hard for survival.
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[mrdoubleb]

Me too! T minus 2 min 20 seconds til the stream starts... Ooh I wish they nail the landing too! The saying is you want the rocket to take off, but there will be a new saying in the future "look at that rocket land!"

Launch was flawless, Dragon is in orbit. Wish the webcast covered the landing too.. will have to rely on twitter for that.

 

[Citizen-T]

Elon on Twitter: Ascent successful. Dragon enroute to Space Station. Rocket landed on droneship, but too hard for survival.

 

[FredTMC]

Elon Musk @elonmusk · 2m2 minutes ago

Ascent successful. Dragon enroute to Space Station. Rocket landed on droneship, but too hard for survival.
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darn it! I hope he provides root cause of hard landing once they determine why...

Video would be be great to see too. I'm sure it's not pretty though

 

[Room_A113]

Video would be be great to see too. I'm sure it's not pretty though

May not be pretty, but I bet it looks pretty cool!

 

[mrdoubleb]

Latest tweet says Falcon did land fine after all, just tipped over after landing. If that's true this is a major milestone for SpaceX. Should get good press tomorrow.

 

[SteveG3]

photos on Elon's twitter feed

Elon Musk @elonmusk · 5m5 minutes ago

Looks like Falcon landed fine, but excess lateral velocity caused it to tip over post landing

[COLOR=#0084B4 !important]View more photos and videos​

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Tweets with replies by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter

Last near miss he posted video within a day or so.

Update: Elon says video will be posted in a few days when ship returns to port.

 

[Papafox]

This SpaceX landing was a tough landing because the wind was blowing so hard. Look at the flag! With less wind, the landing might have been successful. I'm sure the team is debriefing and learning from this high wind landing, learning how better to approach in such conditions.

Elon's tweat referred to excess lateral motion, which is to-from, left-right, not vertical.

When booster recovery landings become the norm, the wind at the recovery spot will need to fall within specific parameters for the launch to be conducted.

 

[Gtoffo]

Elon is talking about volcano lairs on twitter......................

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

From a Canadian perspective, I can tell you that Tesla is on nobody's radar screen. I ask people of all walks of life about this every day. So to say the retail investor is loaded up on this stock is a joke. Most don't even know it exists.

 

[doggusfluffy]

This was very well articulated. I haven't seen it posted here:
Tesla Motors Dealership in Salt Lake City, Utah - YouTube

 

[AudubonB]

You know we haven't talked about how many ZEV credits Tesla will get. Does the battery swap pilot give them the full amount? What is that full amount again? Is it actually 7? Could Tesla get $30k from other manufacturers who aren't selling enough short range EVs for each car they sell in a CARB state? Even if they still get 4 that could be $15k+ per car and if other manufacturers can't sell compliance cars Tesla will benefit financially.

Each one of these questions is fodder for me in wishing not that the ZEV credits would go away, but that it is demonstrative of ridiculous government intervention that never should have been created. Please do not get my gist wrong: it is scarcely more elephantinely ridiculous than, say, a petroleum depletion allowance. Washington never will, I fear, learn that an n-dimensionally gimballed platform cannot level a playing field. "Ah ha!", they will cry. "Then let's try n+1 dimensions!....."

 

[austinEV]

You know we haven't talked about how many ZEV credits Tesla will get. Does the battery swap pilot give them the full amount? What is that full amount again? Is it actually 7? Could Tesla get $30k from other manufacturers who aren't selling enough short range EVs for each car they sell in a CARB state? Even if they still get 4 that could be $15k+ per car and if other manufacturers can't sell compliance cars Tesla will benefit financially.

Yeah it's 7 now. 4 once they close the swap/fast charge loophole. (Someone correct me if that isn't right).

 

[maoing]

Another interview with Ricardo Reyes.
http://www.huxiu.com/article/112871/1.html

Google translation: https://translate.google.com/transl...www.huxiu.com/article/112871/1.html&edit-text=

Model X, Model listing timetable 3


Just last week, Tesla Model S launch a new model of the P70D, make special fans and a lot of preparation to start Tesla consumers, Model X SUV this is the most talked about stars. Not long ago, the US media broke the Model X in the US highway spy, so the media speculation that the listing or approaching. Reyes told the tiger sniffing Jun, Model X will be the first listing in the United States in September of this year, is expected to come to China in early 2016. And another plan PFP models Model 3 is expected to be available in 2017, the tiger sniffing Jun optimistic that it will be able to buy a Tesla.

Model X will start delivery to US market in September. It coincident with Adam Jonas's note yesterday that 100 model X will be delivered in Q3 and 3000 in Q4. Without strong boost of Model X sales in 2015 because of the late start, I agree with AJ that TM is likely to miss 2015 guidance more or less, we'll see.

 

[uselesslogin]

Another interview with Ricardo Reyes.
http://www.huxiu.com/article/112871/1.html

Model X will start delivery to US market in September. It coincident with Adam Jonas's note yesterday that 100 model X will be delivered in Q3 and 3000 in Q4. Without strong boost of Model X sales in 2015 because of the late start, I agree with AJ that TM is likely to miss 2015 guidance more or less, we'll see.

Well James Chen did say 50-55,000 in the video doggusfluffy posted so I don't know if that is intentional or not. But they are still in Q3 and that hasn't moved so I really wouldn't think of September as a change of plans even though others hoped that when Elon said summer it would be earlier. The first 20 or so days of September are still summer. I think they have the production capacity and I think the 70D will increase demand but if I could change my estimate in the other thread I would go from 59,000 to 55,500.

 

[maoing]

Where is James Chen's video? I think 50K-55K is kind of soft signal that TM will miss the guidance from TM officials. It's very challenging to meet 50K model S target this year even with 70D. If model X can't be introduced early enough to mitigate production risk and ensure > 5000 sales, then annual guidance is at risk IMO.

Well James Chen did say 50-55,000 in the video doggusfluffy posted so I don't know if that is intentional or not. But they are still in Q3 and that hasn't moved so I really wouldn't think of September as a change of plans even though others hoped that when Elon said summer it would be earlier. The first 20 or so days of September are still summer. I think they have the production capacity and I think the 70D will increase demand but if I could change my estimate for the year still in the other thread I would go from 59,000 to 55,500.

 

[eloder]

Each one of these questions is fodder for me in wishing not that the ZEV credits would go away, but that it is demonstrative of ridiculous government intervention that never should have been created. Please do not get my gist wrong: it is scarcely more elephantinely ridiculous than, say, a petroleum depletion allowance. Washington never will, I fear, learn that an n-dimensionally gimballed platform cannot level a playing field. "Ah ha!", they will cry. "Then let's try n+1 dimensions!....."

I would only agree if all gas and oil subsidies also went away.

But for now, ZEV credits are a teeny tiny fraction of what gas/oil companies receive in subsidies, even ignoring the fact that gas/oil companies do not pay for the deleterious health effects their pollution causes.

 

[uselesslogin]

Where is James Chen's video? I think 50K-55K is kind of soft signal that TM will miss the guidance from TM officials. It's very challenging to meet 50K model S target this year even with 70D. If model X can't be introduced early enough to mitigate production risk and ensure > 5000 sales, then annual guidance is at risk IMO.

Just a few posts up but I'll post it here:
Tesla Motors Dealership in Salt Lake City, Utah - YouTube

It is certainly a soft signal that they aren't low-balling guidance so we'll see what other executives say. It could also just be his trying to downplay the threat Tesla is to dealers and other automakers.

 

[hobbes]

Where is James Chen's video?

The video linked here!