Ditto... cost basis is a bit lower...
I will read ERs and listen to IR calls going forward to ensure the health of the long term. In the short term I am going to be an ostrich.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Ditto... cost basis is a bit lower...
I will read ERs and listen to IR calls going forward to ensure the health of the long term. In the short term I am going to be an ostrich.
dreamingof3
Member
Comments designed to incite anger are "trollish" in nature. It doesn't matter when you joined, you can still make comments that upset/offend longs.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
So why do you have this crazy hope to make money on your puts (which are down 60%) to get long TSLA at SP of $100?
dreamingof3
Member
Only the timescale. And after things have happened it has gone better than predicted, like Model S demand and production. And I think gross margin has not tracked slower.
There is a good reason they are wrong on the timescale. too. They operate with very hard (impossible) deadlines so everyone is working really hard. Can't then tell the stock market something much more relaxed and still keep the internal goal credible.
But yes, you are of course right that many don't believe in the predictions. I personally think the targets they have set now are very reasonable. Model 3 should be easier than S and X and they are more experienced.
The target I am the most skeptical too is cell production in GF. But it is also not critical as they get batteries from Panasonic.
I don't quite understand what you mean. My plan was to first get money with puts (as I believed that Tesla was overvalued). But because in the long term I believe in the company, I also wanted to buy stocks, when the price is right.
If the price drops to 100 I might still put new money in and go long.
- - - Updated - - -
I don't want to cause real bad feelings. Sorry.
I just could not resist, because certain very vocal TMC member was sure (he did not guess, he KNEW), that there will be short squeeze after ER and price will be 400. Too bad he is not here.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I like the way you look at this. Streamlining production is what you do to catch production up to demand. Moreover I do hope that a new battery upgrade is in the works. So Tesla needs to clear out the 85 inventory first. So this is all good.
I do think the right way to think about TE is as a lower margin means to scale up Gigafactory capacity in advance of automotive demand and to pay for this scaled capacity. So the Gigafactory is not on the critical path to Model 3. This was clear in the CC. This is thanks to TE which will build out the capacity well in advance of Model 3, but because it is lower margin than Model 3, it would also be painless to sacrifice TE sales to scale up Model 3 even faster should such a tradeoff be needed. So TE does an excel in job in derisking scaling up Model 3 and other new automotive models.
The second point is that while TE may be lower margin, it provides high enough margin to pay off the Gigafactory capex. Consider that the capex for the Gigafactory is $80 to $100 per kWh of annual production capacity ($4 to $5 billion for 50 GWh annual capacity). Let's suppose that TE products can net about $30 to $40 per kWh. Note that 15% of $250/kWh for a Powerpack is $42.5 gross profit, and Powerwalls are even pricier. So it takes about 3 kWh of TE products to breakeven on GF capex. Thus, about 150 GWh of TE products pays for Gigafactory 1. This can be done in 4 or 5 years as TE utilizes capacity in advance of automotive need, or on a steady state basis where TE is 15 GWh per year, it takes 10 years for TE to payoff the Gigafactory. Now this analysis is ignoring the reality that off take to automotive also helps pay for capex. My point is that TE GM is strong enough to build out capacity well in advance of automotive demand. Moreover, this is a huge advantage to Tesla as an automaker. Rolling out new auto models is not burdened by the capital cost of scaling up battery capacity. You've got to let this soak in because it is huge.
Other auto makers need to consider the disadvantage they may encounter if the only way they can scale their EV production is to pay for the scaling up of battery capacity for their suppliers. The TE market is plum. Lot's of battery makers will jump into it, but when ICE makers need to become EV makers, they will compete with this stationary market for capacity. Thus, they will pay a premium for the auto batteries they need. Meanwhile whatever the premium may be, it accrues to Tesla as a cost advantage because they took the initiate to milk the stationary market early on. Incumbents don't seem to realize that there is a huge opportunity cost for not jumping into the stationary battery market right now. They are conceding this opportunity to their suppliers.
But that's their problem. For Tesla, TE is a wonderful opportunity to scale and pay for critical capacity.
dreamingof3
Member
I have a theory--there were rumors swirling that David Einhorn was going to short TFANG when Tesla was near 200.
Fast forward and we are in mid 140's. Lots of speculation about short interest going way up in the short term as price collapsed.
I believe he did indeed heavily short Tesla and we can definitely speculate when we see the new numbers.
Fast forward and we are in mid 140's. Lots of speculation about short interest going way up in the short term as price collapsed.
I believe he did indeed heavily short Tesla and we can definitely speculate when we see the new numbers.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I think we need to stop the short squeeze fantasy. Maybe if it reaches 50 mil shares short. Or we get 80% interest to lend out shares again.
Margin improved to 25%, that was one good thing imo.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Oil just hit $29. Crazy day. I'm sure markets will be super volatile all day and final hour will be nuts
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
If you were short TSLA, you had ample time to get out and make tons. More will jump on, but the big players have learned their lesson from 2013 and won't get too deep.
Agreed, they have lots of time to cover. Now if we were at $280 with high short interest I would be getting really excited.
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Or they just had crappy games.
With the exception of Call of Duty Balck Ops 3, which had record breaking sales, the rest of their catalog is played out and dead.
Meanwhile, Bethesda hoovered up a billion in sales with Fallout 4 in Q4.
Plenty of money being spent on games in Q4, just not all of it going to Activision.
Not an economy problem. It's an Activision problem.
Buddyroe
Active Member
I'm sorry, I am long and I LOVE Tesla, but the truth is, most "bulls" are sitting on the sidelines because they didn't read the ER through rose-colored glasses. I was sort of shocked at how rosy this place was Wednesday evening and yesterday. The enthusiasm here was akin to the exaggerated negativism on the other side. I think it was more "hoping" than being realistic.
Things are never as bad as they seem, and never as good either. Most realistic people look at the past guidance and see that Tesla (and Musk in particular) always over-promise. Even casual observers are commenting about this now. So, people have learned to adjust all of Tesla's guidance - they adjust target dates to a time in the future, they reduce earnings estimates, they lower delivery guidance. People have also started holding Tesla accountable for the present and not give them a pass because the future "looks bright".
I discuss Tesla in MANY more circles than here - I mean, even on the football forum I post on, I gather opinions. Why? Because if you ONLY come here, you get the illusion that this .000000000000001% of the population is a representation of the general perception of Tesla. I'm sorry, but it is FAR from it. This forum is not a discussion for investing, but rather a place where Tesla investors come for sanctuary to be among other people who see things as they do. That is why ANYONE with even a reasonable dissenting or contrary view that posts here is called a troll or a short (yes, we DO have actual trolls, unreasonable shorts, and haters here on occasion too). People simply do not want their place of sanctuary upset by opinions that do not solidify their own.
I guess, the point is, reality can be a b***h sometimes.
dreamingof3
Member
Agree 100%. Human nature is to exact revenge and be "right". take a gander at short interest and we will see not only did they not learn, but they are holding tight short
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
