This is very true, but not at the scale we all need on the planet without governments allowing far more dam projects. I grew up within walking distance of 4.6 GW of hydro. And I am wondering what happens when Hoover Dam goes TU and can't produce.
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This is very true, but not at the scale we all need on the planet without governments allowing far more dam projects. I grew up within walking distance of 4.6 GW of hydro. And I am wondering what happens when Hoover Dam goes TU and can't produce.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Just to be clear.....the entire planet is with 99% certainty transitioning from combustion-based energy to renewable sources plus storage.....and you think it's a terrible idea to become the Apple of that?
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Ok, let me put my PhD in experimental particle physics hat on (the same one I used when I partook as a member of the huge team who discovered the Higgs boson a few years back ... You can look up the paper and author list).
There are absolutely no viable clues to the origin of gravity beyond it just being an effect of the metric of space time. There is no viable way to extract what you call the zero point energy under which I assume you mean vacuum energy or the energy that supposedly exists in vacuum that is balanced out of all quantum field theory equations as the zero point on top of which all interactions happen as perturbations lest the calculations always return infinity as a result for energy and any other variable.
Yes, this does not mean such a way couldn't be found some time in the future, but this board is about practical and tangible stuff. Hell, we don't even know what gives mass to neutrinos, we don't know what dark matter entirely consists of even (beyond planets, neutrinos and black holes, but those aren't enough) and my specific field has been in those topics.
So no, let's get back to real world stuff. The stuff I work on besides Teslas usually may or may not bring tangible results, but we're talking about tens of decades if not centuries....
It's an example of possibilities. Quantum physics. There are a good variety of things to look at in terms of anti-matter and trying to excite matter to alternate between matter/anti-matter to somehow create energy out of zero-point. Possibly the Baryon asymmetry. But until that can be "contained" and the right elements involved, it'll have to wait.
So, given so many things are unknown - how can it be "so certain" about one company or another in the ludicrous, I mean cultural/humanistic chaos, that is our humanity? One day nothing and the next - millions of people are zombies playing Pokemon Go?
The Higgs was a good stepping stone as something to be "found" but we do need to figure out stuff that is truly useful.
Uncertainty, certainly. But one certain thing is that the Higgs was demonstrated some 50 years after that article on electrostatic flying saucers that I tried to read from your link above. Shall we try to agree that the laws of physics are not actually subject to popular polls? No matter how hard the New Age-ists protest.It's an example of possibilities. Quantum physics. There are a good variety of things to look at in terms of anti-matter and trying to excite matter to alternate between matter/anti-matter to somehow create energy out of zero-point. Possibly the Baryon asymmetry. But until that can be "contained" and the right elements involved, it'll have to wait.
So, given so many things are unknown - how can it be "so certain" about one company or another in the ludicrous, I mean cultural/humanistic chaos, that is our humanity? One day nothing and the next - millions of people are zombies playing Pokemon Go?
The Higgs was a good stepping stone as something to be "found" but we do need to figure out stuff that is truly useful.
There will be no Apple of renewables any more than there is the could be an Apple of whole wheat bread or corn. Why not promote the idea that Tesla should dominate the corn market? Corn is a fragmented multi billion dollar business. How about garage door replacement? Or maybe water heaters?
Krugerrand
Meow
So many bold statements about what can, can not, will or won't be being made by people not in the know. Unless of course we're all friends of Dion?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
doggusfluffy
Closed
So, Buffalo is *starting* with roofing and not industry standard modules? isn't that a harder market to serve rather than making industry standard modules that all installers can use - especially if highly efficient? I'd think they should start modules and perfect roofing while doing module runs.
My guess is no better than yours. Maybe they simply need the factory space for machines making their own, new and unique product, at least to begin with? Maybe they prefer the higher margin of vertical integration to supplying the competition with superior but standard format panels? (They could always continue to buy off the shelf for the traditional business.) Maybe they simply can't satisfy demand anyway (production limited, remember Tesla Motors)
? Maybe they wait for the next version's even higher efficiency, that could be just around the corner?We cannot really know but as investors just have to hope management knows what it's doing during this transition. Me, I'll stay in a while yet. YMMV. Only my idle speculation, not investment advice.
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Very unlikely.
The price of solar is dropping far faster than can work for solarcity. There are people in Socal reporting offers for a little over $2/watt. What we are seeing here is Musk scrambling for a strategy. What may be most important over the next 12 months is that a portion of the investor community believes that Musk has a differentiated solar product that can be sold profitably in volume. But the chance of a truly successful new product is probably 1 in 20 at best.
Tesla is about to double its employee count by taking on a failing business. Tesla is going to have to be damn lucky, or ruthless, for this not to end badly.
I find it unbelievable that they kept growing solarcity into the crapstorm that was obviously coming. I suppose they thought that the ITC extension made them safe for the rest of this decade.
My guess is no better than yours. Maybe they simply need the factory space for machines making their own, new and unique product, at least to begin with? Maybe they prefer the higher margin of vertical integration to supplying the competition with superior but standard format panels? (They could always continue to buy off the shelf for the traditional business.) Maybe they simply can't satisfy demand anyway (production limited, remember Tesla Motors)
We cannot really know but as investors just have to hope management knows what it's doing during this transition. Me, I'll stay in a while yet. YMMV. Only my idle speculation, not investment advice.
What I find interesting is the SolarEdge inverters which allow for 5000W of backup power from a Solar Roof (PV modules or otherwise) even without a battery. That product could introduce a combined "power center" into a new home construction to allow 5000W of power circuits set aside from HVAC and allow a house to become "nearly self sufficient" powerwise, withstand grid outage right from day-1. Two inverters can be put together and maybe an east-west stance of panels allows 6000W+ of power from 8am to 7pm or longer (with 10kW mid-day) with enough solar PV up there.
If the roof is cheaper to install at construction time and tie-in with electric work at home construction, they can do thousands per month in installations - if the industry accepts it. Now, are thousands per month capable of sustaining this wing of the company or is it something that only works in California and Austin and maybe Long Island, that is the question. The ITC 30% should apply to such a system and inclusive of the battery too if the solar roof charges the battery in the morning to be used in late afternoon.
The installed price of a "whole home system" is one thing. But TeslaCity needs to make the system priced for distributors and installers and that means far less margin. Perhaps 10% margins to compete with choosing it over GAF and other roofing shingle companies for home-builders. And who gets the ITC - builder? homeowner? How does that work out? I suspect homebuilder and they can buy the product at wholesale prices - price it at "market prices" for a solar system and do pretty well with ITC payback if they are a profitable company. There are a lot of ways to build schemes and homebuilders are always looking for ways to make a buck out of pricing in profits into the input parts.
Correct. Musk's been pretty honest about this; count how many times he said "differentiation" in the recent investor phone calls. If they've (a) got the pricing they originally claimed for the panels for the roofing product, (b) have a roofing solution which is satisfactory to the building trades (I do hope they consulted experienced roofers!), (c) have sufficiently low installation costs, and (d) slash sales costs, I think they'll actually have a decent product at a price where they can sell it. They're aiming hard for the SunPower market and they're going to undercut SunPower substantially on price.
He also said he was expecting to sell bundled batteries with 100% of systems, at least in the longer term. I would not be surprised to see the complete solar roof + battery product released as a single product some time next year.
I'm currently betting on ruthless. It sounded to me like Musk was slavering over the Silevo factory. Which has repeatedly cut its manufacturing employee count, so it's getting more and more automated. It seems absolutely clear that they've written off the PPA and lease business as a bad business. And the repeated statements about "cutting cost of sales" clear mean they're going to fire most of the salespeople.
Which raises an interesting point. They promised New York that they'd employ a certain number of people in upstate NY. With the cut in manufacturing jobs, the replacement plan was sales and installation jobs. But those sales jobs are now going to be cut too. Perhaps after the merger with Tesla they'll open several Tesla service centers in upstate NY and count those as the promised jobs -- I can hope.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
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