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[Spoiler Alert + Mild Speculation] Tesla has created a monster!

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Hey @SageBrush. I am not questioning it; I am pointing out that in the document linked, Tesla only lists one of those two ranges (specifically, SR) as an EPA Estimate.
I think in the press release "EPA Estimate" for SR is the unofficial range as of now. The LR 310 mile range is official as it is printed on the Monroney sticker. 310 miles is probably lower than the actual test value, but that is allowed.
 
I think in the press release "EPA Estimate" for SR is the unofficial range as of now. The LR 310 mile range is official as it is printed on the Monroney sticker. 310 miles is probably lower than the actual test value, but that is allowed.

@Migdilio

It just occurred to me that Tesla has only received EPA certification for the LR Model so the 'EPA estimate for the SR Model of 220 miles' verbiage on the presskit reflects that uncertainty. The LR range is a done deal.

Addendum:
@DR61 beat me to it.

This actually makes good sense, and explains the discrepancy.

I'm still left to wonder about Troy's research, and why he got such different numbers for the Model 3's range when he followed Tesla's previous method of calculating vehicle range for EPA submission. Even if his conclusion (The Model 3 has 25-45 miles additional range and Tesla is sandbagging the numbers) ends up being wrong, I would still love to understand why / how he reached the results that led him to such a conclusion.

P.S. - When do I earn the ability to "Like" and "React" to posts? Blergh. :)
 
@Migdilio

It just occurred to me that Tesla has only received EPA certification for the LR Model so the 'EPA estimate for the SR Model of 220 miles' verbiage on the presskit reflects that uncertainty. The LR range is a done deal.

Addendum:
@DR61 beat me to it.
This often occurs with new battery options in the S and X. For example, when the 90 came out, they extrapolated from the 85 range (and sandbagged) and labeled as EPA estimated. When the actual test results came back they dropped the estimated moniker, and the number went up. I believe the same also happened with 60/70/75, and 90/100.
 
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This actually makes good sense, and explains the discrepancy.

I'm still left to wonder about Troy's research, and why he got such different numbers for the Model 3's range when he followed Tesla's previous method of calculating vehicle range for EPA submission. Even if his conclusion (The Model 3 has 25-45 miles additional range and Tesla is sandbagging the numbers) ends up being wrong, I would still love to understand why / how he reached the results that led him to such a conclusion.

P.S. - When do I earn the ability to "Like" and "React" to posts? Blergh. :)
I think Troy has shown all his cards as to why he thinks what he thinks. We don't know WHY Tesla chose to use a different constant multiplier when officially reporting their numbers to the EPA. It is my opinion that they changed the multiplier to sandbag for product differentiation reasons.
 
@shrspeedblade, I agree that the 310 number is fantastic, and I couldn't be happier! I'll be getting the $49,000 bundle sometime between November and January, and I can't wait. My questions stem not from a lack of gratitude about the current reported range, but from an intellectual curiosity borne out of following Troy's research. :)

FWIW, I've been able to achieve over 5 miles/kwh from my 2nd gen Volt under favorable circumstances, so while it would be harder over the longer distance I have a hunch I might actually squeeze out around 375 miles out of a 3LR in a similar fashion. However, I'm not banking on it nor fanning the euphoric flames of this board :p which tends to err on the side of unreasonable expectation, only to be followed by bitter disappointment when confronted with reality.

On the other hand, I bet I'll get under 150 miles when I take it out and flog it on my favorite twisties, too! ;)
 
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FWIW, I've been able to achieve over 5 miles/kwh from my 2nd gen Volt under favorable circumstances, so while it would be harder over the longer distance I have a hunch I might actually squeeze out around 375 miles out of a 3LR in a similar fashion. However, I'm not banking on it nor fanning the euphoric flames of this board :p which tends to err on the side of unreasonable expectation, only to be followed by bitter disappointment when confronted with reality.

On the other hand, I bet I'll get under 150 miles when I take it out and flog it on my favorite twisties, too! ;)
My driving also benefits from living at 6000 ft and usually driving at below 65 mph, but in our Prius Prime (which has Aero and weight similar to the Model 3 SR and almost identical EPA highway rated consumption) I average 6 miles a kWh lifetime.
 
I think Troy has shown all his cards as to why he thinks what he thinks. We don't know WHY Tesla chose to use a different constant multiplier when officially reporting their numbers to the EPA. It is my opinion that they changed the multiplier to sandbag for product differentiation reasons.

@insaneoctane so you agree with Troy (and some others) that Tesla is sandbagging the numbers and that the actual range is considerably higher? If that is the case, what is the end game, and what does it look like? Will Tesla release the "real" numbers at some point before the car goes wide to non-employee Tesla Model 3 reservationists? Will customers discover this discrepancy on their own through personal experience with the car and "out" Tesla for its sandbagging? Where does this all lead?
 
@insaneoctane so you agree with Troy (and some others) that Tesla is sandbagging the numbers and that the actual range is considerably higher? If that is the case, what is the end game, and what does it look like? Will Tesla release the "real" numbers at some point before the car goes wide to non-employee Tesla Model 3 reservationists? Will customers discover this discrepancy on their own through personal experience with the car and "out" Tesla for its sandbagging? Where does this all lead?

I see a lot of people complaining that they don't get any where near the EPA range on their Model S/X so their "game" may be to sandbag the numbers such that people will get much closer to the rated range in normal driving. Meaning less range anxiety and people running out of charge when they aren't paying attention. (Or the game is just anti-selling the Model 3 since they don't want/need the Model 3 reservation list getting any longer than it already is.)
 
I think Troy has shown all his cards as to why he thinks what he thinks. We don't know WHY Tesla chose to use a different constant multiplier when officially reporting their numbers to the EPA. It is my opinion that they changed the multiplier to sandbag for product differentiation reasons.

This makes sense. Considering this is Tesla's first "true" car for the masses, it's better for them to "dumb things down" and give the average person an experience that doesn't suffer from a lot of variance and rely on customers to do additional thinking and calculations to figure out what their "true" range is on any given trip. Underestimating mileage for the customer-facing numbers solves this problem rather neatly. :)

I love this forum. Great conversation!
 
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@insaneoctane so you agree with Troy (and some others) that Tesla is sandbagging the numbers and that the actual range is considerably higher? If that is the case, what is the end game, and what does it look like? Will Tesla release the "real" numbers at some point before the car goes wide to non-employee Tesla Model 3 reservationists? Will customers discover this discrepancy on their own through personal experience with the car and "out" Tesla for its sandbagging? Where does this all lead?
The end game is just better range. Tesla does not have to reconcile their sandbagging with the EPA because they allow it. It's only under reported by around 7%. That is well within the variability just based off driving habits. Most people never get EPA numbers anyway, with this sandbagging, more people will get close. It is all good stuff to me.
 
I think Troy has shown all his cards as to why he thinks what he thinks. We don't know WHY Tesla chose to use a different constant multiplier when officially reporting their numbers to the EPA. It is my opinion that they changed the multiplier to sandbag for product differentiation reasons.
Maybe they're sandbagging because they figure those that choose the battery that provides a half second better performance might tend to take advantage of it. They're just reasonably setting expectations.
 
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I think @Troy has successfully shown that if the LR M3 used the same calculations and methods that they used to calculate the EPA range for the Model S, that the LR would have an EPA range of 334 miles (Link)

Hi, @insaneoctane. That's not exactly correct. If the Model 3 was using the same 0.738 multiplier as the Model S, it would have scored 352 miles EPA rated range. However, for the first time in Tesla's history, Tesla used the default 0.7 multiplier for the Model 3 that all other EVs use. As a result, the Model 3 80 scored 334 miles EPA rated range and 131 MPGe for the city and 120 MPGe for the highway.

After that, Tesla voluntarily reduced the 334 mi EPA rated range to 310 miles. The Monroney sticker shows the voluntarily reduced range number but it shows the original MPGe numbers. I can confirm that the MPGe numbers remain unaffected from voluntary reductions. In the past, Tesla has voluntarily reduced Model S numbers many times. The highest voluntary reduction before the Model 3 happened with the Model S P100D when the score was reduced from 324 to 315 miles. However, the MPGe numbers remained unaffected. Also, this year, for the first time, the EPA released a file that shows the original range numbers before the voluntary reduction. They forgot to hide those numbers. They were supposed to convert formula cells in Excel to static numbers. I'm happy to answer any questions.

Hi, @Migdilio. The 310 number is now the official EPA rated range. It is not going to change. The Monroney sticker shows the 310 mi here below the 126, 131, 120 MPGe numbers. Until somebody took a photo of the Monroney sticker, we didn't know for sure that the 310 mi number was the EPA rated range. Now we know. The 314 mi number is not unusual. Many people have reported slightly more than EPA rated range. Here is a screenshot from a Tesla battery survey. You can see that many entries are above 100%. Also, check out this video that shows how turning range mode on/off instantly changes the displayed range. Maybe, range mode was turned on in this Model 3. I don't see the 314 miles number newsworthy.
 
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Hi, @insaneoctane.Hi, @Migdilio. The 310 number is now the official EPA rated range. It is not going to change. The Monroney sticker shows the 310 mi here below the 126, 131, 120 MPGe numbers. Until somebody took a photo of the Monroney sticker, we didn't know for sure that the 310 mi number was the EPA rated range. Now we know. The 314 mi number is not unusual. Many people have reported slightly more than EPA rated range. Here is a screenshot from a Tesla battery survey. You can see that many entries are above 100%. Also, check out this video that shows how turning range mode on/off instantly changes the displayed range. Maybe, range mode was turned on in this Model 3. I don't see the 314 miles number newsworthy.

Hey @Troy. I really appreciate your response! If the Model 3 is capable of up to 352 miles of range based on EPA estimates, why wouldn't this number show up in the UI when the LR Model 3 is fully charged?
 
Because the rated range displayed in the UI is based on the EPA range reported on the Monroney sticker. (The one Tesla is held accountable for.)

Hey @MP3Mike. Yes, it makes sense for Tesla to match the range displayed on the UI to the EPA range reported on the Monroney sticker. But if there is, "behind the scenes," an additional 20-40 available miles, how will that difference manifest, if not in the UI? Will the driver be able to drive 20-40 miles before their displayed range of 310 ticks down to 309? Will the additional miles be a "failsafe" buffer after the car reaches 0 miles, similar to how an ICE car can hit "E" but still have a gallon of gas left? I'm trying to figure out how this is all going to play out. The extra miles are clearly there (based on @Troy's findings) - the question is, what is going to happen to them?
 
Hey @MP3Mike. Yes, it makes sense for Tesla to match the range displayed on the UI to the EPA range reported on the Monroney sticker. But if there is, "behind the scenes," an additional 20-40 available miles, how will that difference manifest, if not in the UI? Will the driver be able to drive 20-40 miles before their displayed range of 310 ticks down to 309? Will the additional miles be a "failsafe" buffer after the car reaches 0 miles, similar to how an ICE car can hit "E" but still have a gallon of gas left? I'm trying to figure out how this is all going to play out. The extra miles are clearly there (based on @Troy's findings) - the question is, what is going to happen to them?

No, and no.

I think you are missing how the available range is calculated. For example if the car thinks it has 75kWh of energy stored in the battery it would divide that by .242kWh to get the range available. So as you use the energy the number is updated based on remaining energy stored, not on miles driven.

A couple of, wild, examples, with completely made up data, to show you what I mean:
  • You start with a full battery showing 310 miles of range available and drive down hill for ~200 miles. The car may still show ~300 miles of range left depending on the grade and your speed.
  • You start with a full battery showing 310 miles of range available and drive up a steep hill at 70 MPH with a head wind in the cold with the heat blasting. You may only be able to drive 100 miles before your battery shows empty and you stranded.
The extra 20-40 miles available completely depend on the driving conditions. (Just like someone was able to drive, slowly, their 100D Model S more than 600 miles on a charge.)