Starting to regret FSD pre-purchase in a major way

[Knightshade]

You are describing Chapter 7 bankruptcy (liquidation). In that case, yes, a 3rd party would buy the relevant assets to make repairs possible (and more importantly: profitable).

Maybe, maybe not.

In the case of Saab the only reason that was possible was the parts folks were their own, non-bankrupt, company.

One of the major owners (GM) explicitly prevented any 3rd party actually interested from buying up the assets of the bankrupt part (the actual car maker), hence why they ceased to exist and owners with warranties were left blowing in the wind... (but at least able to buy parts from another company)

In terms of parts and support, the current awful situation is strictly Tesla's fault. Only in MA can one even access the FSM because they passed a "right to repair" law. No other car company except exotics have that kind of policy. They keep an iron grip on parts manufacturing as well.

Sure. Hence why it might be a problem if they cease to exist, since there's no alternatives.

All of this would be a cash cow for Tesla if they had their act together on the repair side. They could be making 50% margins on parts, painting, even stupid stuff like body wraps.

Tesla makes a big point about how they do NOT want their parts/service to be a profit center like "normal" dealerships....so that aspect isn't incompetence, it's intentional.

 

[Knightshade]

What makes you believe Tesla is promising refunds for FSD if it “never comes”?

Every fraud law on the books? Right now there's a credible case they can make for they're going to be rolling out some FSD with HW3. If that doesn't happen either you're going to see at least an offer of refunds if you want em.

See also the EAP lawsuit and that's for a feature they actually DID offer from day 1 of sale they just took an extra year or two to make "good"

 

[daniel]

Yeah, not really though.

If it never comes I get a full refund.

You armchair lawyer's argument above notwithstanding, there's no reason to believe that you'll get a refund. Tesla promised FSD "when the software is developed and regulatory approval received." They never promised a time line. And now that they're couching it as a package of unspecified features, all they need to do is bring one new feature to the "FSD" package that they don't give to the EAP package, and they can claim they're acting in good faith to move toward FSD.

... L3 already exists on at least one other makers car), ...

That's stretching it a bit. On very limited roads, at low speed, they don't require you to keep your hands on the wheel. Yes, technically that's level 3. But it's not very useful unless you live somewhere that most of your driving is stop-and-go traffic jams. I absolutely love EAP. It makes my driving much easier and I believe safer. But the L3 label is meaningless to me until it operates at any legal speed on the freeway, at an absolute minimum. Note that "eyes off the road" means that the car must be able to detect, with reasonable advance notice, any condition that would require the driver to take over. With EAP there are situations I notice as little as 5 or 10 seconds before I need to resume control. (No complaints there. It's all within the reasonable bounds of L2.) L3 on the freeway at any legal speed is going to be a lot harder to achieve than some folks think, and the Audi (?) system limited to slow speed, is a joke.

 

[Knightshade]

You armchair lawyer's argument above notwithstanding, there's no reason to believe that you'll get a refund. Tesla promised FSD "when the software is developed and regulatory approval received." They never promised a time line. And now that they're couching it as a package of unspecified features, all they need to do is bring one new feature to the "FSD" package that they don't give to the EAP package, and they can claim they're acting in good faith to move toward FSD.

And I can't really think of any FSD-only features they can add I wouldn't find worth 3k.

L3/No nags doing the same thing EAP does is worth 3k to me since 90% of my driving is on EAP.

That's stretching it a bit. On very limited roads, at low speed, they don't require you to keep your hands on the wheel. Yes, technically that's level 3.

Then it's not really stretching anything is it?

Level 3, by definition is for very limited operational domains.

But it's not very useful unless you live somewhere that most of your driving is stop-and-go traffic jams. I absolutely love EAP. It makes my driving much easier and I believe safer. But the L3 label is meaningless to me until it operates at any legal speed on the freeway, at an absolute minimum.

You're welcome to make up your own definitions, but the Audi system is absolutely an L3 system. Eyes, but not mind, off the road, and works only in a fairly narrow/limited operational domain.

A system that works most places and doesn't require being able to take over in a reasonable amount of time is L4, not 3.

 

[Dr. J]

Now I’d like the EAP and FSD to recognize pedestrians and deer, and maybe dogs and squirrels too.

EAP on my Model 3 already, on occasion, recognizes overpasses as an obstacle.

 

[diamond.g]

You armchair lawyer's argument above notwithstanding, there's no reason to believe that you'll get a refund. Tesla promised FSD "when the software is developed and regulatory approval received." They never promised a time line. And now that they're couching it as a package of unspecified features, all they need to do is bring one new feature to the "FSD" package that they don't give to the EAP package, and they can claim they're acting in good faith to move toward FSD.



That's stretching it a bit. On very limited roads, at low speed, they don't require you to keep your hands on the wheel. Yes, technically that's level 3. But it's not very useful unless you live somewhere that most of your driving is stop-and-go traffic jams. I absolutely love EAP. It makes my driving much easier and I believe safer. But the L3 label is meaningless to me until it operates at any legal speed on the freeway, at an absolute minimum. Note that "eyes off the road" means that the car must be able to detect, with reasonable advance notice, any condition that would require the driver to take over. With EAP there are situations I notice as little as 5 or 10 seconds before I need to resume control. (No complaints there. It's all within the reasonable bounds of L2.) L3 on the freeway at any legal speed is going to be a lot harder to achieve than some folks think, and the Audi (?) system limited to slow speed, is a joke.

Is Cadillac Supercruise not Level 3? I didn't read about any speed restrictions on it, just location restrictions.

 

[Knightshade]

Is Cadillac Supercruise not Level 3? I didn't read about any speed restrictions on it, just location restrictions.

Nope, it's L2.

L3 allows you to take your eyes off the road (read a book, watch a movie, whatever)

Supercruise requires your eyes on the road.

It has an interior camera to nag you and shut it down if you don't do that.... (its their implementation of what Tesla does with the torque sensor on the wheel to insure you're paying attention)

 

[Eno Deb]

Is Cadillac Supercruise not Level 3? I didn't read about any speed restrictions on it, just location restrictions.

No, you still have to constantly supervise the car. The difference between Audi's L3 system and L2 systems like EAP or Supercruise is that you can read a book or watch a movie until the car prompts you to take back control. And Audi will actually assume liability for accidents caused by the car while in this mode.

 

[daniel]

And I can't really think of any FSD-only features they can add I wouldn't find worth 3k.

L3/No nags doing the same thing EAP does is worth 3k to me since 90% of my driving is on EAP.

L3 would be worth $3K to me also, if it operated for most of the time I was on the freeway. I just don't think we're close to that yet.

Level 3, by definition is for very limited operational domains.

Wrong. You added the word "very." Level 3 is for limited operational conditions. A system that only works on I29 between mile marker 23 and mile marker 42 at speeds between 45 and 55 mph would be Level 3 by definition. But that would be very different than a system that works 90% of the time on all North American limited-access roads at any legal speed.

Also, Level 3 is eyes off the road but driver in the driver's seat and ready to take over on short notice. Level 4 is you can go to sleep in the back seat and if you are needed the car will safely park and wake you up.

I'd happily pay $5,000 for a Level 3 system that was eyes-off-the-road and no-nag for 90% of my driving. I would not pay even $1,000 for a Level 3 system that was eyes-off-the-road and no-nag for 10% of my driving. (And it should go without saying that I would not want Tesla, or any other car company, to release such systems until they are mature enough that they're safer than the average human driver.)

There's a big difference between the lower and upper ends of L3. The first baby feature that Tesla provides for its "FSD" package will probably not get me to pay for it. But I'm hopeful that in five years there will be features that I am willing to pay for. I just want to see them first and decide based on what is, not on what might be.

 

[Knightshade]

Wrong.

Except no, it' s not wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car#Levels_of_driving_automation

Read the chart. In particular the System capability (driving modes) column

L2 and L3 are "some driving modes"

L4 is "many driving modes"

All levels 2-4 are domain limited... but 2 and 3 are very limited compared to 4 which is expected to work many places.

The other major 3/4 difference is in 3 the driver is required to take back over in some reasonable (but not immediate) amount of time- while L4 the driver never is.

The Audi system is level 3 by every aspect of the definition- even if you personally don't like it.

There's a big difference between the lower and upper ends of L3.

Same with Level 2. Radar cruise has been around what 15-20 years now at least? That's level 2. It's pretty far from EAP on a Tesla.

 

[daniel]

"Very" is your word. It is not in the definition. You interpret the definition as being very limited. But an L3 car need not be "very" limited.

The real heart of the difference, if you look at the link you posted, is that L3 is "Eyes off the road," whereas Level 4 is "Mind off the road."

No argument from me that L2 also has a very broad range, which is why I would not have paid as much for radar cruise control 15 or 20 years ago as I happily paid for EAP this spring. Just as I would pay for a very broad implementation of L3 but not for a very narrow implementation.

 

[Knightshade]

"Very" is your word. It is not in the definition. You interpret the definition as being very limited. But an L3 car need not be "very" limited.

And it need not be NOT very limited.

That was the point.

The fact audis operatonal domain is very limited does not change the fact it's a level 3 system

level 3 explicitly permits very limited operational domains.

L4 requires more/wider operational domains (though still limited compared to L5 that has to work everywhere).

"
The real heart of the difference, if you look at the link you posted, is that L3 is "Eyes off the road," whereas Level 4 is "Mind off the road."
.

What that really boils down to is- When Level 3 finds something it can't handle (usually when it's leaving its operational domain), it needs a human to do something but not EMERGENCY RIGHT THIS SECOND stuff (hence why you can take your eyes away and not worry about emergency safety but have to at least vaguely be paying attention when it lets you know you will need to do something soon).

When L4 finds something it can't handle it can ALSO request the human take over, but it won't NEED them to because unlike the L3 car if the human ignores the request the L4 car can safely pull over and park itself until a human can figure out what to do next.

The other difference is L4 is expected to operate in a lot more/broader operational domains than L3.

 

[daniel]

And it need not be NOT very limited.

That was the point.

The fact audis operatonal domain is very limited does not change the fact it's a level 3 system

level 3 explicitly permits very limited operational domains.

L4 requires more/wider operational domains (though still limited compared to L5 that has to work everywhere).




What that really boils down to is- When Level 3 finds something it can't handle (usually when it's leaving its operational domain), it needs a human to do something but not EMERGENCY RIGHT THIS SECOND stuff (hence why you can take your eyes away and not worry about emergency safety but have to at least vaguely be paying attention when it lets you know you will need to do something soon).

When L4 finds something it can't handle it can ALSO request the human take over, but it won't NEED them to because unlike the L3 car if the human ignores the request the L4 car can safely pull over and park itself until a human can figure out what to do next.

The other difference is L4 is expected to operate in a lot more/broader operational domains than L3.

But what's cogent is that L2, L3, and L4 all allow an unspecified amount of leeway regarding the conditions under which the autonomy features will function. We may imagine that the higher levels should have broader ranges, but that's not in the definitions. What's in the definitions are the degree of driver alertness required. It's conceivable that an L4 car might only operate on freeways in the city of Los Angeles and only when there's no construction work happening, while a different car at L3 might operate on all freeways in North America, including in construction zones, and navigate itself to your destination in any of an arbitrary list of cities.

The definitions don't say what the car will be able to do. They just say how much alertness is required from the driver.

Yes, the Audi is Level 3. But that fact tells us nothing we really want to know when considering the car, because it might not operate on any road we plan on driving. And it does not tell us what the car will do. It only tells us that when it's doing what it does, we can take our eyes off the road.

I'd rather have my Model 3 with L2 EAP that works in 30% of my city driving and 95% of my freeway driving, than an L3 car that doesn't work where I drive.

 

[FlyRealFast]

Agree with Daniel. We’ve been testing NoA running 42.4 in many different scenarios and it’s been truly amazing to see how much it can already drive itself around our area. Will likely get much better in 2019 with the new computer, advanced summon, more software refinements, etc.

Suggest a thorough test drive with NoA before passing on FSD at current pricing as the value will likely keep increasing!

 

[Dr. J]

Suggest a thorough test drive with NoA before passing on FSD at current pricing as the value will likely keep increasing!

I would hope so, since FSD is featureless at this point. Says one who sprang for FSD.

 

[FlyRealFast]

Amen! Something tells me it won’t be featureless for much longer...

 

[FlyRealFast]

Was looking back through this thread and saw this comment:

“ Automatically taking freeway off ramps based on NAV is not worth much to me, but making turns on city streets based on NAV would be, though I think that's a long way away.“

FWIW my 3D on NoA 42.4 will now approach a stoplight, slow and stop behind the car in front, start moving again and then make the turn gracefully all by itself, and keep following traffic. Tested this just yesterday and was pleasantly surprised... Cool things like this may start happening must sooner than we think!

 

[vikefan]

Agree with Daniel. We’ve been testing NoA running 42.4 in many different scenarios and it’s been truly amazing to see how much it can already drive itself around our area. Will likely get much better in 2019 with the new computer, advanced summon, more software refinements, etc.

Suggest a thorough test drive with NoA before passing on FSD at current pricing as the value will likely keep increasing![

I drive on Southern California freeways, about 120 miles worth of it each day on most days of the week, and I’ve used NoA just about every time I get on the freeway, so I’ve had a fair bit of experience with it since it came out. So far I’m not all that impressed actually, but not because the navigation or auto-on/off-ramp functionality is poor.

What makes NoA annoying for me right now are the auto lane change suggestions and functionality. First, the car frequently suggests errant lane changes, like telling me to get in the left lane “to follow route” when the freeway exit is coming up in 1 mile. Additionally, I want to be able to cancel a suggestion I don’t want to take. Unless I’m missing something, not only can I not cancel it (which makes it beep at me as though I’m not paying attention), but it also actively prevents me from hitting my turn signal for the OPPOSITE lane from the suggestion. So in the case I just mentioned, I have to turn off my auto steer to let me get to the freeway exit, which is obviously an incorrect design/bug. It’s also not good at all right now at providing lane change suggestions for slow traffic. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t, and sometimes it suggests going into a lane that’s actually slower.

Additionally, the auto lane change functionality is DEFINITELY not aggressive enough, at least for SoCal drivers anyway. If there’s heavy traffic, this car will never change lanes, because there’s no chance in hell anyone is going to leave the space between cars that this thing apparently thinks is necessary. Also, I find it annoying that I can’t change multiple lanes quickly. It’s a very slow process because I have to wait for the car to fully change one lane, wait for the signal to turn off, then turn the signal on once again, wait for the car to recognize no one’s there once again, and then change again. There’s a particular part of one of my freeways where the carpool exits fairly close to my freeway exit, so I need to get over rather quickly, and I simply ALWAYS have to cancel autosteer/NoA to do it.

In short, I find myself having to take over, cancel autosteer, or cancel EAP altogether several times throughout every single trip on the freeway I’ve ever taken. It’s fairly disappointing in its current state. Honestly the only thing I think EAP/NoA is good for right now is driving on a very long stretch of freeway where the need for changing lanes is kept to a bare minimum, which is definitely almost nowhere in SoCal.

 

[C141medic]

I drive on Southern California freeways, about 120 miles worth of it each day on most days of the week, and I’ve used NoA just about every time I get on the freeway, so I’ve had a fair bit of experience with it since it came out. So far I’m not all that impressed actually, but not because the navigation or auto-on/off-ramp functionality is poor.

What makes NoA annoying for me right now are the auto lane change suggestions and functionality. First, the car frequently suggests errant lane changes, like telling me to get in the left lane “to follow route” when the freeway exit is coming up in 1 mile. Additionally, I want to be able to cancel a suggestion I don’t want to take. Unless I’m missing something, not only can I not cancel it (which makes it beep at me as though I’m not paying attention), but it also actively prevents me from hitting my turn signal for the OPPOSITE lane from the suggestion. So in the case I just mentioned, I have to turn off my auto steer to let me get to the freeway exit, which is obviously an incorrect design/bug. It’s also not good at all right now at providing lane change suggestions for slow traffic. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t, and sometimes it suggests going into a lane that’s actually slower.

Additionally, the auto lane change functionality is DEFINITELY not aggressive enough, at least for SoCal drivers anyway. If there’s heavy traffic, this car will never change lanes, because there’s no chance in hell anyone is going to leave the space between cars that this thing apparently thinks is necessary. Also, I find it annoying that I can’t change multiple lanes quickly. It’s a very slow process because I have to wait for the car to fully change one lane, wait for the signal to turn off, then turn the signal on once again, wait for the car to recognize no one’s there once again, and then change again. There’s a particular part of one of my freeways where the carpool exits fairly close to my freeway exit, so I need to get over rather quickly, and I simply ALWAYS have to cancel autosteer/NoA to do it.

In short, I find myself having to take over, cancel autosteer, or cancel EAP altogether several times throughout every single trip on the freeway I’ve ever taken. It’s fairly disappointing in its current state. Honestly the only thing I think EAP/NoA is good for right now is driving on a very long stretch of freeway where the need for changing lanes is kept to a bare minimum, which is definitely almost nowhere in SoCal.

Take a look at post #72
Model 3 Software Update 2018.48.x

 

[Jbailey]

I paid 3k knowing full well the full self driving would probably never materialize. However, I do feel that new features such as stop sign/ red lights recognition etc will differentiate FSD from regular EAP over the next year or so...add this to a new computer and it seems like a good deal. I would do it again.