I agree except that I don't believe they are equally plausible. I believe 1 is a bi-product of 2. Many of the cars suffering from battery gate will be out of warranty soon. Given that Tesla is now trying to avoid warranty on anything less than complete failure, of those cars, how many will actually fail before warranty runs out? I can't see it possibly being enough to open themselves up to lawsuits from all S and Xs for chargegate and batterygate, and the bad publicity that B and C gate bring. I believe they are slowly bringing all S and Xs down and they saw something in the batterygate cars that caused them to drop them much faster. The biggest impediment to selling EVs is range and charging speed, and Elon being Elon, went for the most and the fastest. After the fires they now believe that they pushed the envelope to far and are trying back off of that optimistic view, to safer boundaries. I can't see batteries failing in mass and at the same time. This cost would be spread out over time, so I don't believe Tesla would take this action over warranty cost, which would be impossible to accurately predict anyway.
On the other hand, it would not take a lot of fires to shake peoples confidence in the product, especially if they were parked in home garages, at the time. That is a much greater risk to Tesla's viability than warranty costs covered over time. And they also stated what they did and why.
"The company has revised the charge and thermal management settings on Model S and Model X vehicles via an over-the-air (OTA) software update, to help further protect the battery and improve battery longevity" this statement was made about the fires.
So to me, this action is far to draconian to simply be about some warranty costs that will be absorbed over time.
@Ferrycraigs
If one believes this is simply about avoiding warranty, ask yourself this question. Do you honesty believe Tesla will restore your supercharging speed and original Vmax, after your warranty expires?
If not, then this can't simply be about warranty costs.