Tanked Model 3 values?

[WannabeOwner]

Perhaps this all depends on how you buy your car in the first place,

I think worth considering price of new car - i.e. difference between 2nd hand price and current new price (rather than original price paid "depreciation"). If New Price, and 2nd price, have fallen ... doesn't really make any difference - its just the "make up" money to convert a sale into a new purchase.

This does mean that they basically have to keep selling to stay afloat, though, with the consequential effects that has on residuals for existing owners. That might bite them in the medium term.

I know the hardware does change on Teslas ... Heat Pump, and some minor improvements and so on ... but it doesn't seem much to me, and no speciifc "Year models" like other brands. The motoring press complains that Tesla desparately need a refresh (once it gets to about 3 years). Tesla don't rush to refresh (maybe too "young" a company to have that ability ... maybe deliberate / strategy).

But the OTA stuff adds a lot over 3 to 4 years.

So right now Tesla tells anyone that has an issue "go elsewhere" because they can sell all they can make ...

... but if within the 3 years ownership they clean up all the niggles - OTA releases that fix wipers, phantom braking, make the headlights do matrix ... then at that point existing owners, previously dead-set on changing brand, may stay brand-loyal. So Tesla could engineer "keep customers" over the course of 3 years OTA releases.

I think its up to the rest to out-pace Tesla (and I've been hearing of Tesla Killers since the first one I owned in 2015). So far the competition has kept on shooting itself in the foot - Musk can't surely believe how easy they have made it for him - its like your best mate passing you the ball 2 yards from the touch line.

Of course some will want a change, and not to be driving "the same as everyone else" ... but if Tesla actually manage to implement the promised huge numbers of Supercharger sites what other Charge brand competitor will there be? Sure, they'll be open to "all" by then, but there will probably still be a slight advantage with having a Tesla car too. And if AP improves, courtesy of FSDb - I'm sure there will still be those making comparisons that XYZ is "better", but it has been the case to date they are better in some instances not all (maybe the instances where we would all like Tesla to shine - e.g. hands-free motorway driving) ... but then Tesla only have to release that OTA to scratch that itch for users.

So I think its all within Tesla's Gift to change from punter-ditcher to become a punter-keeper. Although ... beats me why the Summer Intern hasn't been told to "Fix wipers". Might be because it is hard, but I think more likely "Not a priority". If sales drop I think it will become a priority

the wife's "shopping" single motor sensible family car MS is far faster than my V8 TVR, not that it is likely that will ever be sold (into 20 years of ownership now and could sell for far more than I bought it for......)

I had a Caterham-type-Lotus-7 thing with a V8 / 300 BPH. My 2015 MSPD was faster, acres of cargo space, 100% more passengers The noise of the Lotus-7 was tiring ... in fact the only thing the Lotus-7 did better was turning Right-at-T and hanging the tail out for 100 yards ... Kept it a few years, never drove it ... so it went.

 

[Big Dunc]

The TVR is part of the family. It has loads of character. It makes a lovely noise and will go sideways all day long. (if you dare). I will have it for ever, but there is zero logic in keeping it.
As an aside, after over 35 years of playing with cars (showing my age) the biggest ever reaction I had was taking the Model S to a big TVR meet. It was the most popular car there. Never mind opening the bonnet to look at the engine. Opening the frunk to look at no engine was a crowd puller. Then someone wanted a go. I took them up the road and back. They were a little taken aback by the acceleration and flat cornering. When I got back to the meet 5 minutes later, my wife had a couple of the WAGS who wanted a go. When they got back, I had a que of people wanting a go. The car was doing Demo rides all evening, with wifey and I taking turns in driving.
At the end someone asked about the battery and range. I replied "I didn't know the car was going to spend all evening being booted up the road doing countless maximum acceleration runs. We didn't charge it specially before we came out, it was just whatever charge it happened to have in it. Are we concerned about getting home? No, the battery is still over 50%. If I had been ragging my TVR all evening, even starting with a full tank, it would need filling on the way home". That really made people think. Elon, you owe me a pint as several of that group are now Tesla Owners.....

 

[WannabeOwner]

The TVR is part of the family. It has loads of character. It makes a lovely noise and will go sideways all day long. (if you dare).

Yeah, my "Hooligan", as the family called it, was that ... had the old Rover SD1 V8 (maybe your TVR too) so very low revs and hence a nice noise... had to use a Ford gearbox to avoid the agricultural gearbox from conventional SD1 uses - which made for interesting mating! And a Quaife limited slip diff and quick-rack for opposite lock ... yeah it was loads of fun.

there is zero logic in keeping it

Yup, did that. Only for 4 years though ... way too much fettling for the few miles I did each year.

biggest ever reaction I had was taking the Model S to a big TVR meet

I has a similar experience (2016-ish I guess) when a mate suggested we when to a pub for lunch when the local classic car meet happened. "Opening the frunk to look at no engine was a crowd puller" Snap! Elon doesn't owe me a pint, I've got a handsome amount of swag from referrals and I've been supercharging gratis for 7 years ... mind you that's only 4,000 kWh so I've not been sitting there filling up.

Nostalgic digging that photo out ... that was the day the build was finished, 20 years ago this June !

 

[PITA]

In 2021 I bought my Tesla Model 3 Performance for £61,000 ... through my Limited Company. (£12,000 of that was diverted Corp Tax avoidance)

If I can sell it to myself at 3 years old for a legit low price... that's a good thing. Avoiding as much Corp Tax as possible.

Then just drive the thing...

Isn't this 2021 Model 3 supposed to be good for 1,000,000 miles?

It's only done 22,000 so far...

 

[yessuz]

I have read this thread with interest.
I have always had a theory that most cars, unless really special, in normal times, half in value every three years. i.e at three years old it is half the price of new, and three years later, half that price etc. In fact, however old it is when you buy it, it will be worth half three years later. Anyway, I digress.
My wife has a 2014 Model S which we bought 2.5 years ago and amazingly could sell now for about what we paid for it. However, it isn't for sale. We both love it and it is here to stay.
I am thinking of replacing my 16 year, 185,000 mile young diesel estate. I have had it ten years and put most of the mileage on it. We tend to keep our cars for a long time.
Much as I love the Model S, I need a car that can tow, and that rules out a Model S. A Model 3 is not ideal for me as I prefer a hatch back and I doubt I can afford a Y. I have been following the prices of I Paces, EV6's, MG's and Model 3's closely for the last six months. They are all very different cars, with different budgets and I really fancy an I Pace. However, there are two BUTS, and they are both Big BUTS.

1. No other manufacturer can match the super charging network. I don't do many long trips so don't often use super chargers, but the fact they are available is a big thing. I had assumed that this wouldn't be a problem because if I bought a non Tesla, I would just swap cars with my wife if I did a long trip, but actually, many of my long trips involve towing.

2. The plummet of prices of the Model 3 is eye opening. Suddenly they are significantly cheaper than the equivalent I Pace, and have a super charger network.

It looks as though I am going to have to "put up" with a saloon and and may soon be shopping for a Model 3.

i think SC netwrok is a bit over rated.

by this I mean:
1) most of the time you charge at home because of price difference of SC vs home is huge (not so much relevant to you in MS I suppose)
2) tesla is opening SCs to other manufacturers. I predict that all SCs will be open to non-teslas by the end of 2024

 

[debrooker]

Yeah, my "Hooligan", as the family called it, was that ... had the old Rover SD1 V8 (maybe your TVR too) so very low revs and hence a nice noise... had to use a Ford gearbox to avoid the agricultural gearbox from conventional SD1 uses - which made for interesting mating! And a Quaife limited slip diff and quick-rack for opposite lock ... yeah it was loads of fun.



Yup, did that. Only for 4 years though ... way too much fettling for the few miles I did each year.



I has a similar experience (2016-ish I guess) when a mate suggested we when to a pub for lunch when the local classic car meet happened. "Opening the frunk to look at no engine was a crowd puller" Snap! Elon doesn't owe me a pint, I've got a handsome amount of swag from referrals and I've been supercharging gratis for 7 years ... mind you that's only 4,000 kWh so I've not been sitting there filling up.

View attachment 920091

Nostalgic digging that photo out ... that was the day the build was finished, 20 years ago this June !

Nice and a Sierra RS Cosworth in the background also

 

[yessuz]

we buy any car value is nonsense - they got too many of those, they do not want those, therefore such price.

cheapest model 3 on autotrader is 2020 SR for 22,8 k.

2021 performance starts from 39k (if you exclude one for 35 from some private seller).

 

[Big Dunc]

I hardly ever use superchargers. BUT, when I do they are super convenient. A few are opened up to other makes, but not the majority. If I was towing my boat to an event at the other end of the country, I would want to just not have the worry and hassle and that for me is the value of the supercharger network. I think it will be a long time before ALL superchargers are open to other makes, and so until then, that sways me to a Model 3 rather than an I Pace. That and the fact the floor seems to have fallen out the bottom of the Model 3 market, making them excellent value for money if you are prepared to go for one which is three or four years old.

 

[Durzel]

I think the major plus of the SC network - speaking as someone who has only used it a couple of times in 3 years, one of which was "just because" - is the peace of mind of knowing that you can set off on a journey anywhere in the UK (and beyond) and know that you're going to have a few options in different places along the way, and you don't have to think about whether they're going to be knackered when you turn up, or the app or whatever doesn't work, etc.

The only bad thing about it is that some sites are more oversubscribed than others, but from what I can see Tesla are still building out sites at a pretty brisk pace, certainly faster than it seems third parties are.

EDIT: Beaten by @Big Dunc

 

[WannabeOwner]

we buy any car value is nonsense - they got too many of those, they do not want those, therefore such price.

I think he just wanted a valuation to buy the car from his company - IME revenue will be happy with a valuation from WBAC ... and if it s a low value that is kind to the buyer - in this instance

 

[MattJ M]

Heavy discounts available for the final push towards the end of quarter. If only they had USS

 

[ElectricPolice]

Indeed, top line figures look appealing.

Speccing up my M3 purchased 12 months ago, even with a £5,260 adjustment the exact same PCP terms work out £4 per month more expensive.

And I have USS

Free supercharging next maybe as I doubt they can/will alter interest rates again?

 

[AutomaticMan]

Ok, well having heart palpitations today! Personal circumstances* force a sale in the next 2 or 3 months and it had been a while since I did a Motorway.co.uk valuation. Last time I did one - 6 months ago or so - my 2022 M3 LR was worth £47k. I knew that prices would be a lot lower now because of Tesla’s barking mad fluctuations in new sale price, and had prepared myself for a ~£40k valuation now that the car has 20,000 miles.

Nope! It’s about £28k

I mean, this is a cry myself to sleep at night level of depreciation. I’ll have lost over 20 grand in just over a year. If I’d leased it over that period it would have been about a £1,500/month lease. Simply terrifying.

Reading this thread with interest now. I see people say cars are being advertised for ~£10k more than Motorway or WBAC on Autotrader, but do we have any evidence that cars are selling there for that amount? Or are they just being advertised by shell-shocked Tesla owners advertising their cars way over market value because they can’t come to terms with what has happened to their value?

I hear what everyone is saying about the crazy 2022 residuals not lasting, but losing nearly 50% of its value in 1 year is horrific even going back to pre-pandemic times.

*(Not bad “I lost my job” circumstances or anything. Don’t want to get into the details though, but it’s good (not bad) news!)

 

[Big Dunc]

Ouch.
I think it is supply and demand. The market is awash with 3 or 4 year old Model 3's which have all fallen off finance.
As someone who is looking to buy a M 3 it is not so bad news, but they have dragged down old M S prices with them (which makes sense as a 9 year old M S should not be worth more than a 4 year old M 3), but as my wife has an early M S then we have also been hit with the pain.
I see your pain and hope the bad personal circumstances resolve themselves.

 

[Durzel]

It's pretty simple to be honest, as said above.

- Cars started being delivered in mid/late 2019 and have only increased in volume (massively) since then. There's a steady supply of cars dropping off finance, and that will never stop. If anything it will just get "worse".

- Interest rates have jumped up, and people have less money to spend.

- Tesla have demonstrated that they're happy to drop new car prices by significant amounts on a whim. They have loads of margin across the cars (20%+ at least) so have plenty of room to keep dropping the price if they feel like they aren't shifting enough volume. This has a compressive effect on second hand car residuals, and means dealers and customers are skittish wondering whether the car they buy now is going to be worth £10k less in the space of a few months - as you've found out yourself.

I recently worked out how much my M3P has cost per month and it's about £695 (WBAC offering just over £31k as of this post), which I don't think is massively less than I was being quoted for finance back in 2020.

 

[AndyFov]

It does make you think, the rate these are being churned out. I've only paid £23k for my 2020 rwd model, which I'm presently waiting for, but I'm mindful that finding a buyer for it when I'm done with it is going to be quite the task.

I've got a horrible feeling I'm going to get burnt, there'll be Project Highland cars on the market 2yrs old my the time I sell mine, perhaps, nevermind thousands and thousands of 2021 spec cars with their heat pumps and lfp batteries. I reckon £8k will be a conceivably realistic value come 2026, so I'm looking at about £100 per week in depreciation.

Meh, you can't take it with you. Who wants to be the richest man in the graveyard anyway?

 

[Durzel]

It does make you think, the rate these are being churned out. I've only paid £23k for my 2020 rwd model, which I'm presently waiting for, but I'm mindful that finding a buyer for it when I'm done with it is going to be quite the task.

I've got a horrible feeling I'm going to get burnt, there'll be Project Highland cars on the market 2yrs old my the time I sell mine, perhaps, nevermind thousands and thousands of 2021 spec cars with their heat pumps and lfp batteries. I reckon £8k will be a conceivably realistic value come 2026, so I'm looking at about £100 per week in depreciation.

Meh, you can't take it with you. Who wants to be the richest man in the graveyard anyway?

You'll probably be ok. £23k is a steal for what the car is, and I'd argue that it's the kind of money that people buying privately would be able to stretch to.

People having bought new, or buying new now, are going to take a major bath though if they want or need to sell early on into ownership. To some extent that's normal because depreciation is heavily front loaded, but still painful nonetheless.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I recently worked out how much my M3P has cost per month and it's about £695

2p a mile for "fuel" and ... 10K Miles p.a.? I make that 72p a mile for "other"

I've only paid £23k for my 2020 rwd model, which I'm presently waiting for, but I'm mindful that finding a buyer for it when I'm done with it is going to be quite the task

You'll be one-of-few people selling a 2020 car at X mileage, when you do ...

... so price will depend a lot on how much the "make up money" is to a newer / under-warranty car. If that remains quite-a-bit then I reckon you'll have buyers.

 

[Big Dunc]

I guess I’m one of the few that buy a car that I want and keep as long as possible without worrying about depreciation.

That is my position. We bought the Model S for my wife 2.5 years ago and it didnt depreciate at all for two years ago and suddenly its worth 60% of what it was. Not to worry, it may be 9 years old but wifey wants to keep it for ever. By the time we sell it, it will be worth a lot less that it is now.
I am looking to buy a Model 3 some time in the next 12 months ish, but there is no rush so I am just watching. Mu current daily driver is now 16 years / 185 k miles young, so we do keep our cars for a long time.
One thing that should be of comfort to Model 3 (and Model S) owners is that I despite the market being flooded with 3 year old cars (& that will continue to be the case) I do not think values will fall much (if any) lower. There are lots of people who can afford a 25k car who cannot afford a 30k car. There are a shed more people, who probably really want a Tesla but can only afford a £20k car. This is critical price point and these cars are terrific value for money at this price point. If the price drops slightly more, suddenly loads more people will be able to afford them, so the demand will increase to match the supply.

 

[Dilly]

It’s the way of the world.
in 2020, you were lucky to see another Tesla from one week to the next. Now if I go shopping locally, I see one or two at least.
There are two living within half a mile of me.
At Gridserve Norwich yesterday, at least 20 came and went. I saw 5 pass by without stopping there, in just 3 minutes.
I also saw 6 more on the way home.
In 2020 people would have been all over mine for a look. In 2023, my wife’s eRifter gets all the attention. No-one has ever seen one
No wonder mine is worth loose change. They are as common as muck