Tanked Model 3 values?

[AutomaticMan]

Ouch.
I think it is supply and demand. The market is awash with 3 or 4 year old Model 3's which have all fallen off finance.
As someone who is looking to buy a M 3 it is not so bad news, but they have dragged down old M S prices with them (which makes sense as a 9 year old M S should not be worth more than a 4 year old M 3), but as my wife has an early M S then we have also been hit with the pain.
I see your pain and hope the bad personal circumstances resolve themselves.

Don’t worry, it’s a good personal circumstances thing rather than a bad personal circumstances thing. Though I admit the shine is being rather taken off now I know how much I’ll lose on the car!

It's pretty simple to be honest, as said above.

- Cars started being delivered in mid/late 2019 and have only increased in volume (massively) since then. There's a steady supply of cars dropping off finance, and that will never stop. If anything it will just get "worse".

- Interest rates have jumped up, and people have less money to spend.

- Tesla have demonstrated that they're happy to drop new car prices by significant amounts on a whim. They have loads of margin across the cars (20%+ at least) so have plenty of room to keep dropping the price if they feel like they aren't shifting enough volume. This has a compressive effect on second hand car residuals, and means dealers and customers are skittish wondering whether the car they buy now is going to be worth £10k less in the space of a few months - as you've found out yourself.

I recently worked out how much my M3P has cost per month and it's about £695 (WBAC offering just over £31k as of this post), which I don't think is massively less than I was being quoted for finance back in 2020.

Oh, I know. I knew it would be bad, I just didn’t know that it would be this bad! £695/month isn’t that bad and I wouldn’t be upset if that were my situation, but £1,500/month which is the lease equivalent for the depreciation I’ll get is upsetting.

I guess I’m one of the few that buy a car that I want and keep as long as possible without worrying about depreciation.

I planned to keep mine for at least 4 years when I bought it, but life circumstances that you hadn’t planned for can sometimes change things.

People having bought new, or buying new now, are going to take a major bath though if they want or need to sell early on into ownership. To some extent that's normal because depreciation is heavily front loaded, but still painful nonetheless.

There’s front-loaded depreciation and there’s 50% depreciation in one year! If it were 30% in one year I’d have said “ah well, hey ho… car depreciation has returned to its normal pre-pandemic levels” and be disappointed but not shell-shocked. But 50% is horrific.

Also annoyed that I’ll now have to attempt a private sale. I’ve sold cars through Motorway.co.uk before and it is a nice, simple process. Looks like instead my next few months will be spent dealing with phone calls from time-wasters all day and trying to avoid being scammed.

Does anyone think used prices might recover slightly in a few months? My situation is that I need the car gone by September, but could also survive without it for a few months (use of another car) if it sold before that. Am I better off keeping hold of it a few more months so I get the benefit of its use, or should I sell as soon as possible before the used values get even worse? I appreciate that we’re in crystal ball mode here and no-one can know for sure… just trying to figure out my next move so speculation may be (slightly) better than nothing I guess!

 

[AndyFov]

Despite my moment of gloom on the previous page, there's news that electricity prices are falling. This can only be good for the residuals of EVs.

The fall of values could be an overcorrection. I really don't know where prices are going to go. None of us do, really?

 

[Big Dunc]

Don’t worry, it’s a good personal circumstances thing rather than a bad personal circumstances thing. Though I admit the shine is being rather taken off now I know how much I’ll lose on the car!


Oh, I know. I knew it would be bad, I just didn’t know that it would be this bad! £695/month isn’t that bad and I wouldn’t be upset if that were my situation, but £1,500/month which is the lease equivalent for the depreciation I’ll get is upsetting.


I planned to keep mine for at least 4 years when I bought it, but life circumstances that you hadn’t planned for can sometimes change things.


There’s front-loaded depreciation and there’s 50% depreciation in one year! If it were 30% in one year I’d have said “ah well, hey ho… car depreciation has returned to its normal pre-pandemic levels” and be disappointed but not shell-shocked. But 50% is horrific.

Also annoyed that I’ll now have to attempt a private sale. I’ve sold cars through Motorway.co.uk before and it is a nice, simple process. Looks like instead my next few months will be spent dealing with phone calls from time-wasters all day and trying to avoid being scammed.

Does anyone think used prices might recover slightly in a few months? My situation is that I need the car gone by September, but could also survive without it for a few months (use of another car) if it sold before that. Am I better off keeping hold of it a few more months so I get the benefit of its use, or should I sell as soon as possible before the used values get even worse? I appreciate that we’re in crystal ball mode here and no-one can know for sure… just trying to figure out my next move so speculation may be (slightly) better than nothing I guess!

As I said I feel for you. If I could afford a cash purchase tomorrow, I would be sending you a pm, but I cannot. If your car has a tow bar and you still own it early summer, send me a PM. Where in the UK are you?

 

[AndyFov]

By the way, that Motorway valuation is derisory. It's not a true reflection of your car's worth.

 

[AutomaticMan]

As I said I feel for you. If I could afford a cash purchase tomorrow, I would be sending you a pm, but I cannot. If your car has a tow bar and you still own it early summer, send me a PM. Where in the UK are you?

I’m in Gloucestershire, no tow bar though. But if prices keep falling at this rate, you’ll probably be able to buy the car from me for less than the price of fitting a new tow bar to it anyway!

By the way, that Motorway valuation is derisory. It's not a true reflection of your car's worth.

I very much hope that is true. But I have no way of knowing at the moment. I’ll probably put it on Autotrader for around £40k (it has enhanced autopilot and acceleration boost which might help) and see what happens. But it has to go by September whatever happens, so if the only bidder in town by then is Motorway/WBAC then their valuation is how much it’ll go for.

 

[BelfastEV]

I’m a SR 2019 owner so it’s giving me the opportunity to maybe move to a 2021 LR at a small spread. I’m in the market for a LR max £30k.

 

[SO16]

I planned to keep mine for at least 4 years when I bought it, but life circumstances that you hadn’t planned for can sometimes change things.

True.

I only buy a car when I’ve saved enough cash to pay for it outright (or at least enough cash to cover it if needed) and up until my Tesla (at the age of 40), always bought used.

I think some buy a new vehicle way before they should. Personal responsibility seems to be lost on many people. (I’m not saying that’s the case for you, but it is for many.)

Also I NEVER have been under the illusion that buying a new vehicle was a sound financial decision.

Just like I’d never pay 15k for FSD for current functionality. I pay for things that I think provide enough value at that time of purchase. So when I did buy it all including TACC, AP, EAP and FSD for 5k during the fire sale, I figured that was a fair price for that functionality.

When I bought my Model S90D in 2016, I thought the 105k price was fair at that time for what I got. When I received it, that very week in 2017, the 100D came out for the same price. I didn’t freak out over it. I simply accepted MY decision. The good news is that the next Tesla I purchase will be hopefully cheaper and for much better functionality. Now I can get a plaid for almost the same price. That’s amazing! Maybe one day but I still enjoy my car.

I’d rather pay less for my next vehicle than try to keep my current vehicle price inflated. But if I absolutely had to sell early to recoup the money, that is unfortunate.

 

[Big Dunc]

I’m in Gloucestershire, no tow bar though. But if prices keep falling at this rate, you’ll probably be able to buy the car from me for less than the price of fitting a new tow bar to it anyway!

I very much hope that is true. But I have no way of knowing at the moment. I’ll probably put it on Autotrader for around £40k (it has enhanced autopilot and acceleration boost which might help) and see what happens. But it has to go by September whatever happens, so if the only bidder in town by then is Motorway/WBAC then their valuation is how much it’ll go for.

Annoyingly, if it does not leave the factory with a tow bar, it can never have one. That is a deal breaker for me. Sorry. It really restricts the market for me. Ask Elon why he makes the only car in the world that cannot have a tow bar retrofitted (other than those that could not have them new of course).

 

[AutomaticMan]

Annoyingly, if it does not leave the factory with a tow bar, it can never have one. That is a deal breaker for me. Sorry. It really restricts the market for me. Ask Elon why he makes the only car in the world that cannot have a tow bar retrofitted (other than those that could not have them new of course).

I will ask him in between asking “why do you keep changing the prices of your cars over a near £10k range at the drop of a hat and tanking used prices??” while shaking him violently

 

[WannabeOwner]

Does anyone think used prices might recover slightly in a few months?

If ecconomy recovers and itnerest rates go down ... personally I don't reckon that is "soon"

Annoyingly, if it does not leave the factory with a tow bar, it can never have one

Model-Y is not supplied with Tow Bar (AFAIK) and is only available as a retro fit. Possibly (recent) Model-3 too (IDK)

The reason for factory-fitted (as I understood it, e.g. for Model-X) was because of some structural integrity which was only present on "factory fitted towbar". 3rd party available, but maybe begs the question how they get the structural integrity ...

 

[Adopado]

The reason for factory-fitted (as I understood it, e.g. for Model-X) was because of some structural integrity which was only present on "factory fitted towbar". 3rd party available, but maybe begs the question how they get the structural integrity ...

Factory fit applies to the Model 3 also.

 

[dhrivnak]

So I was planning on selling or trading in my white 2020 SR+ model 3 (all standard) for LR MY.

For some reason trade in quotes have disappeared from the UK site?

Tried WBAC, Motorway and Cazoo and some of the prices are ridiculous?


WBAC and Cazoo are offerring £24,500-£25,000 and Motorway £30,000.

The car has 17,500miles and it’s literally brand new as I baby it. It only has dents on alloys, but will repair with insurance.

Have I missed something about re-sell values or am I stuffed?

I just checked KBB and found my 2018 Model 3 is down Some 45%. And I also checked a Camry same year and miles and it is down 65%. So Tesla doing better than the competition.

 

[AutomaticMan]

This one is closest I could find to mine on Tesla’s website. Mine is a bit newer, but has also done a few more miles. So if it is going for £38,400 used approved from Tesla, I guess £35k in a private sale is probably the best I can hope for. So about 35% depreciation over the first year of ownership. I would call that fairly poor in normal times (so, excluding the pandemic years), but I suppose not totally unheard of. Especially considering mine is high mileage for 1 year old car.

Still, I think on current evidence those buying new Teslas should be aware that they don’t appear to be a brand that holds their value well. Something to consider when picking between a Tesla and German rivals.

 

[DoricJim]

View attachment 921577

This one is closest I could find to mine on Tesla’s website. Mine is a bit newer, but has also done a few more miles. So if it is going for £38,400 used approved from Tesla, I guess £35k in a private sale is probably the best I can hope for. So about 35% depreciation over the first year of ownership. I would call that fairly poor in normal times (so, excluding the pandemic years), but I suppose not totally unheard of. Especially considering mine is high mileage for 1 year old car.

Still, I think on current evidence those buying new Teslas should be aware that they don’t appear to be a brand that holds their value well. Something to consider when picking between a Tesla and German rivals.

Not exactly, the link below is an old article from the AA in 2012 which tallies with my 30y experience of buying new cars; I.e. up to 40% may be expected in the first year.

Car depreciation - how quickly do new cars lose value? | AA

Of course this varies by model.

We all have short memories and the Covid / microchip shortage years were/are a blip. Things are normalising faster for Tesla vs other brands as they are able to pump out cars at a faster rate.

 

[AutomaticMan]

Not exactly, the link below is an old article from the AA in 2012 which tallies with my 30y experience of buying new cars; I.e. up to 40% may be expected in the first year.

Car depreciation - how quickly do new cars lose value? | AA

Of course this varies by model.

We all have short memories and the Covid / microchip shortage years were/are a blip. Things are normalising faster for Tesla vs other brands as they are able to pump out cars at a faster rate.

Yeah, as I say, not unheard of. I still think it is towards the bad end of ’normal’ but not out of bounds. I would expect a German car to do better than 35% though, so I think if we’re getting enough Teslas on the roads now that we’re getting a clearer picture of their residuals, they don’t seem to be one of the stronger performers out there.

 

[AndyFov]

You, through no fault of your own, managed to buy in when demand outstripped supply, and now find it a necessity to sell when supply outstrips demand.

To suggest Tesla is a brand that doesn't hold its value isn't really fair, as people who bought in 2019 and sold in 2022 will have a very different story to tell.

Teslas' recent depreciation curve has been dented by a contraction of disposble wealth in a cost of living crisis, and electricity prices being temporaily at record highs. It's not really Tesla's fault.

 

[AutomaticMan]

You, through no fault of your own, managed to buy in when demand outstripped supply, and now find it a necessity to sell when supply outstrips demand.

To suggest Tesla is a brand that doesn't hold its value isn't really fair, as people who bought in 2019 and sold in 2022 will have a very different story to tell.

Teslas' recent depreciation curve has been dented by a contraction of disposble wealth in a cost of living crisis, and electricity prices being temporaily at record highs. It's not really Tesla's fault.

I guess no way to prove for sure unless I had a German car to sell that I bought at the same time as comparison. But I can’t help wondering whether Tesla’s aggressive discounting has compounded the market conditions. I know from past experience that French cars tended to lose value quickly as people knew you could haggle thousands off the price of a new French car very easily. With the prices of new Teslas seemingly being cut by close to £10k overnight with no warning, I’d be surprised if that hadn’t spooked some buyers and contributed to lower residuals.

 

[kelvin 660]

I guess no way to prove for sure unless I had a German car to sell that I bought at the same time as comparison. But I can’t help wondering whether Tesla’s aggressive discounting has compounded the market conditions. I know from past experience that French cars tended to lose value quickly as people knew you could haggle thousands off the price of a new French car very easily. With the prices of new Teslas seemingly being cut by close to £10k overnight with no warning, I’d be surprised if that hadn’t spooked some buyers and contributed to lower residuals.

That's if you could have purchased a Gernam EV car, as they were (are) as rare as hens teeth.
My take, is dealers like WBAC got burnt with the sudden price drop and availability of new Tesla's and are over reacting right now.

 

[UrbanSplash]

You, through no fault of your own, managed to buy in when demand outstripped supply, and now find it a necessity to sell when supply outstrips demand.

To suggest Tesla is a brand that doesn't hold its value isn't really fair, as people who bought in 2019 and sold in 2022 will have a very different story to tell.

Teslas' recent depreciation curve has been dented by a contraction of disposble wealth in a cost of living crisis, and electricity prices being temporaily at record highs. It's not really Tesla's fault.

It’s teslas fault they have such scope to reduce prices significantly though. BMW etc do not. That’s what’s killing used teslas. Moral of the story is don’t buy a Tesla. Second and last for me. Crazy company. Awful boss.

 

[ringi]

It’s teslas fault they have such scope to reduce prices significantly though. BMW etc do not. That’s what’s killing used teslas. Moral of the story is don’t buy a Tesla. Second and last for me. Crazy company. Awful boss.

Tesla believes in continuing improving the complete end to end production process, including continuing reducing costs and using the cost reduction to increase EV sales. Therefore the cost of all new EVs will be forced to reduce in real terms over at least the next ten years.

The money lost on selling 2nd hand is much less then with computers, I remember how fast computer costs reduced in the 1990s. Noone expected a computer to retain any resale value.