Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Seems like the NHTSA will just regulate driver assist systems and leave regulation of L3-5 systems up to the states until there is more consensus about how to regulate them.
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Tesla’s FSD Beta 10.3 Coming This Friday 10-22-2021
- Thread starter Khashoggi
- Start date
Gpkarma
Member
10.3.1 light years better than 10.2 for me — have almost got end to end drive to the gym with no forced disengagements down! Today the only ones were on long 1 way curvy road 45mph where I know it will just be close to center line … engaged right before end of it for all the turns… one time after it successfully made left turn I gripped the wheel too tightly and force disengaged by accident. I used to have problems on almost every turn with 10.2 particularly with it trying to jerk into the adjacent lane as it turned. SO CLOSE to full ride home on leg day when I have done too much and have shaking legs …!!!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Will it though?
AFAIK NHTSA has offered zero actual regulations at the federal level.
They seem perfectly happy to keep letting states decide this on their own.
It's not like there aren't a dozen or more other companies driving L3/L4/L5 test vehicles on public roads right now and NHTSA has shown no interest in regulating them either.
ACTUAL ones do (and actually they do only to certain extents, this is a pretty deep and complex area of law... for example there's federal firearms regulation, but gun laws still manage to vary a lot from one state to another).
But the imaginary federal regulations you keep insisting WILL exist to magically create a get out of jail free card for Tesla- not so much.
I admit it's a bold strategy..... Insist Tesla planned years in advance to hide behind regulations that did not exist, and 5 years later, still don't.
I wonder if I can borrow the crystal ball you're sure Elon used to plan this all out.
They could have one tomorrow with a highly restrictive ODD if they wished. But their aim is generalized L4, not specialized as others have done.
But again Tesla ain't the only game in town.
Waymo has L4 cars right now on public roads with no driver in them
Feds are honeybadgering the heck out of "regulating" that though aren't they?
There ya go moving the goalposts again
Lemme remind you of what your actual original claim included since you keep hoping folks will forget:
So, again, your "belief" was they were always (since 2016 at least) planning to use imaginary regulations that 5 years later still don't exist to avoid having to deliver FSD.
Not only was this not a "tiny detail" of your argument, you later pointed out it was the basis for your entire argument on Sunday (handily I'd previously quoted you there too)
S4WRXTTCS said:
So it was entirely based on regulation. But that argument didn't hold up.
So NOW it's about HW?
That doesn't matter at all though.
HW2 wasn't capable either. Neither was HW2.5.
Everyone who bought FSD on cars with that HW simply got upgraded to HW3 for free.
There remains no reason whatsoever to doubt the computer would be upgraded again, for free, to HW4 (or HW-whateverisneeded).
The fact Tesla designs their own computer in fact makes this incredibly easy to do. They specifically mentioned at the HW3 unveil it was designed to be directly swappable in fact. What evidence do you have they just stopped doing that for future systems?
But my "belief" is based on a slew of known facts. Including Tesla having not only stated publically they'd provide any HW upgrade needed to FSD owners for free, but actually providing those upgrade for free with the HW3 computer... and announcing they're doing it again with the AP2 cameras.
Yours appears to be based on....literally nothing.
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Enjoyed some FSD Beta driving today that included some challenging situations:
It definitely takes more effort to use the beta, but I appreciate the experience and exercise. Hopefully Tesla got some helpful feedback today!
Stay vigilant out there!
- A driver (whom I was already keeping an eye due to his previous aggressive driving) crossed two lanes to get around some slower traffic and suddenly cut me off in the process. Luckily, I was paying attention and slammed on the brakes and felt the ABS kick in. Maybe (hopefully) FSD Beta would've reacted a split second later, but I nearly hit the car even by reacting first. To be fair, this was a totally reckless driver doing the unexpected, and if there had been a wreck, dash cam video would've shown the other driver to be at fault.
- Construction zone with a lane shift (tons of cones on both sides) into what ordinarily is a lane for oncoming traffic (crossing yellow lines) and one-way traffic controlled by construction folks at each end. FSD tried very hard and partly succeeded. I had to take over several times when it was lane hunting too much and also when it gave up at one point. It did recognize the cones as lane markers.
- A shopping center parking lot with lots of possible paths, islands, and turns induced too much indecision causing me to use the accelerator numerous times and also take over a few times when wrong turns were going to be made or the car wanted to use the wrong side of the road.
It definitely takes more effort to use the beta, but I appreciate the experience and exercise. Hopefully Tesla got some helpful feedback today!
Stay vigilant out there!
The reason you believe Tesla will be able to upgrade existing FSD vehicles is based on your own assumption of what the upgrade will consist of. You believe that it will only require upgrades to things intended to be upgraded like the computer or the sensor heads.
Where I believe it will be prohibitively expensive because it will require things like an upgraded sensor suite for example. Where they'll have to add additional sensors.
I explained this multiple times, but you're too busy trying to find things "wrong" that you fail to understand where a person is coming from. Of why they have a different opinion than you.
Another example of this I said "Tesla is a long ways from having a vehicle capable of L4", but then you stripped it out of context and went into talk about a completely different ODD than we both know Tesla is aiming for. In ODD way more likely to get the attention of the feds when combined with the existing sensor suite. It lacks things like redundancy for example.
It's much harder to respond to you than other TMC users because you split each thing out where it removes it from the context its written, and you don't allow a conversation to move forwards from what was said days ago. You'll accuse a person of moving a goal posts when all they did was better explain where they were coming from.
Where the conversation itself is the process of editing. Of taking something said, and revising it. Where a person throws away things poorly said, or things they don't feel strongly about.
Things like "FSD Beta buyers were promised L5 autonomous driving" gets revised to "FSD buyers were promised L4 autonomous driving in most situations"
In this case it makes no material difference as the difference isn't the limiting factor. But, the revision is more accurate.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
HW3 is the computer
So yes, when I say I think they will continue to upgrade the computer for free as needed- I meant the computer.
Did you, somehow, mean something else yet kept instead repeatedly referring to it as the computer by name?
I literally quoted you, twice, saying the basis of your entire argument was the regulatory get out of jail free card argument.
Which we've since debunked by explaining to you regulators have already approved L4+ systems in multiple US states, which you appear to have been unaware of.
Yet somehow, despite the "entire basis" of your argument being disproven, you're continuing to make the argument and just change the basis to hardware.
Which is weird- because since Tesla has said they'd upgrade any hardware needed for FSD owners, them saying they aren't gonna do that isn't really a get out of jail free card at all is it?
It'd instead be directly going back on a promise to customers.
Which- again, not only hasn't happened, but they have repeatedly kept that promise, repeating they'd do so as recently as last week on the AP2 camera stuff.
But by all means, if you think the problem is your own words were quoted back to you to show your argument doesn't hold up, and you want to admit your previous argument didn't make sense and start from scratch with some other argument, feel free.
My safety score has now updated to 99 due to the fact that the score is only the last 30 days. Because of that 2 FCWs (from Autosteer) dropped off my score. So I'm wondering if I will now get the beta release 10.3 in the near future. Has anyone else gotten the new beta because they increased from a lower score to 99?
Yes, that's happened to others. The timing is hard to predict though. So, be sure to keep your score up while waiting.
JADCa
Member
Exact same situation as of this morning. Waiting sorta patiently.
jebinc
Well-Known Member
Wiki - MASTER THREAD: Actual FSD Beta downloads and experiences
@EVNow Not here. I successfully made it through a roundabout in Covington, WA several times (v10.2) - day and night. While the transition was anything but smooth, it didn't stop first, before entering. It just yielded. Great to here. But like EVNow and others have posted FSD stops before...
teslamotorsclub.com
What you can't seem to get through your head is I don't care that multiple US states have approved L4+ systems because that doesn't take into account how the proliferation of them that will push legislators, and regulatory agencies to address issues that come up.
I don't have any disagreement that I'm aware of with the current state of things as they exist now. But, how things exist now is not how things will exist 4-5 years from now when L4 from Tesla might start to become a reality.
The regulatory landscape will change
The HW needed will differ greatly from what currently exist
Back in 2016 no one needed a crystal ball to know that regulations was going to play a major role in Autonomous driving. Having a line about regulatory was imperative for Tesla to have to protect themselves.
Not much about my opinion that I shared on post #230 has changed.
Buyer were promised something Tesla couldn't deliver on, and still can't. This is factual, and I don't believe there is a disagreement on it.
Tesla doesn't ultimately have control over what the requirements will be. There is disagreement on this one, but this one is a bit of a grey area. Sure they are allowed in some states to release an L4+ vehicle that obeys all laws, but can they do so without lengthy discussions with the NHTSA? If the NHTSA expresses concerns that Tesla can't address in the existing HW, and tells them not to then is that really a regulatory action? Like lets say the NHTSA wanted down facing cameras to protect pedestrians.
The most problematic line I have is "It's my belief that Tesla always intended on using the regulatory get of jail free card"
First of all it reads as if Tesla had a game plan, but that doesn't mesh with my feeling like they just make things up as they go along. Only recently have things felt cohesive where there is a resemblance of a game plan. Secondly it makes it sound like Tesla was always out to screw people which isn't actually how I see it. The regulatory line is a necessity to protect themselves especially in pro regulatory places like Cali.
I see Autonomous driving as something that's going to continuously evolve even to the point that we can't allow old systems on the road if they fall well behind newer systems in terms of capabilities (safety, efficiency of the roadway, etc).
Personally I think anyone who bought FSD should be allowed to transfer their ownership to a new vehicle, and Tesla should stop selling FSD. Instead move to the subscription model where the original owners are grandfathered in as long as they have the latest HW.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Also because until multiple people corrected you in this very thread you weren't aware multiple US states had already approved those systems.
Actually seems like mainly that.
Because once shown that rather than admit you were wrong you just decided there'll magically be FUTURE rules that reverse it all.
You have no idea what the future holds.
Also you TOTALLY KNOW the future will hold something that makes it impossible for Tesla to make current cars work at L4 with simple upgrades like more powerful computers.
How can BOTH be true?
Yes they literally can release it today without discussion with anyone
As you've had explained to you over and over and and keep being surprised by every time you are reminded
Again many companies are already driving at L3 or L4 on public roads right now without talking to the NHTSA first.
Because the NHTSA has no requirements or regulations at all governing this topic
For like the 10th time now.
...like.... someone sleeping under the car?
Because any actual standing pedestrians would be visible with the current cameras.
Finally we have some progress in your argument- you appear to admit your original claim is not just unfounded, but contradicted by two of your other beliefs.
Thanks.
I expect anything that is significantly safer than a human will continue to be allowed on the road.
Since we already allow humans on the road, even below average skilled ones.
So as long as that remains true I can't see how we'd ever tell a company "You have to take your 3x safer than a human system off the road since someone else has a 5x safer system"
For that matter- modern cars themselves are VASTLY safer than say a 1932 Ford.... but we still allow those on the road too. We don't even require them to add seatbelts if they didn't come with em originally.
So I don't think this argument holds up either.
For anyone that’s in my boat, I reached out for a service appointment to upgrade the cameras that we heard would need to be upgraded to be FSD compatible. I received the following correspondence.
Some additional info., I have a ‘17 S100D with the FSD computer, but different cameras in the front and sides from what the newer models have.
To reverse something it actually has to exist..
L4+ at the level Tesla desires with the Sensor suite Tesla desires to have does not exist today. Even limited L4 with Tesla HW doesn't currently exist despite Tesla having the perfect opportunity for it in Nevada.
I'll admit my speculation was wrong when the time comes that shows my speculation was wrong.
I'll be happy to be wrong if Tesla upgrades the sensor suite because its obvious to me that it cannot handle Autonomous driving in most situations.
I'll be a bit concerned if we don't see stronger federal legislation or at the very least stronger guidelines that the states can sync up with.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yes, and regulations permitting L4 cars to drive on public roads right now with no further approval exist today.
So your suggestion some FUTURE rules to reverse that would be the magic "get out of jail free card" that Tesla "always intended to use" to avoid delivering L4 is established as untrue.
It's weird you're still posting about it.
Yeah, you'd think by now I would have given up on you.
I did have hope you'd see WHY I saw things the way I do, but all efforts have failed.
At this point its better to move on to reporting issues with FSD Beta as it at least has a tiny chance of leading to success.
I was very lucky. My score was at 98 last week, tried to bring it up to 99 on Saturday before 10.3, but it actually dropped to 97 due to an FCW caused by a car in the opposite direction crossing the median and passing a parked truck, so I missed 10.3. Then I learned the tricks of opt-out/opt-in and resets. Knowing I’d need 100/99 before the next update, and knowing mathematically it would be easier to start from scratch than trying to improve 97 into 99+, I did the opt-out/opt-in on Sunday. Driving after opt-out wasn’t needed as some people suggested. I just waited until the safety score was removed from my app (30 minutes?), then opted-in again, and I immediately saw the score was reset. Then, I had a business trip on Monday-Wednesday and was able to get 100 score for 400+ miles using AP most of the time (had to forego about 100 miles total using resetting technique). And right after I returned from the trip on Wednesday, I got an email and a firmware update for FSD 10.3.1! I thought I would have to wait for at least a week for the new score, but it wasn’t necessary as long as I drove for more than 100 miles.
Haven’t tried the FSD beta yet, will try over the weekend or on Monday because I don’t have to drive to work every day these days.
Haven’t tried the FSD beta yet, will try over the weekend or on Monday because I don’t have to drive to work every day these days.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Well, so far I've been able to usually get it to drive me from home to work and back (about 35-40 miles each way), and also from home to a friends place about 45 minutes away and back home again- without interventions. There's some caveats there of course.
1) In all those cases the vast majority of the drive is highway...probably at least 80-90% of it.... so really it's more "can drive me from driveway to highway" or "highway to work" or "highway to friends house" and then reverse of them.... with no on-actual-city-streets portion being more than maybe 10 minutes of driving tops.
2) It does brake quite often for little apparent reason, but it's always quite minor.... most commonly 2-3 mph slowdowns on corners or hills where I guess it can't be absolutely sure as far ahead as it'd like.
3) It seems to often decide a road I'm turning onto has a WAY lower speed limit than it really does so I find myself having to dial that up- this is not technically a disengagement but it would be if that were the only way to make it not be doing 25 mph on a 55 mph road.
4) A couple of times it's been REALLY slow to go through a turn... it would eventually do it... and it'd do the same turn another time fine... but that probably WOULD have been a disengagement if there'd been cars behind me as I wouldn't have wanted to make them wait through that.
5) The one and only real "this was legit wrong and dangerous" disengagement I did have was coming around a tightish corner up to a line of maybe 6 or 7 cars lined up stopped at a red light (single lane each direction road).... FSDBeta decided these guys were stopped for no reason and began to go into the oncoming lane to pass them.
6) It waits too long to get into the correct lane for upcoming turns. Since most of my driving is in light/little/no traffic this hasn't big a big issue, but it would be in denser driving situations.
7) And lastly as I think I've mentioned- having seen the creeping behavior with low side visibility, I don't believe they can achieve better than L2 on city streets without at least 1 additional per side forward-mounted side looking cams.... that wouldn't prevent them from getting as high as L4 on highways though.
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