JRP3
Hyperactive Member
He's a bullshitter using wrong numbers to hype hydrogen. Claiming the grid is 20% efficient, and it uses diesel? Yeah, he's a scammer.
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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
They're flailing, but it's a good time to flail. Real money investors just ponied up cash at $10/share, choose your price target accordingly.
Also "we get free services from them (Iveco) because we traded stock for services" is a statement on the value of the stock. But he's a billionaire and I'm not, so....
We will see quite a few short haul BEV Semis in moderate deployment over the next couple years. Then a pretty quick changeover once fleets crunch all the real-world numbers and figure out the logistics.
Their off-road vehicle is pretty cool.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Trevor Milton is who everyone shorting Tesla has claimed Elon Musk is.
I've followed the company from day one, and have had the displeasure of having a back and forth with Milton on two occasions. You need to remember that he started this odyssey by advertising (and taking reservations for) an NG/hybrid semi...then on a whim switched to H2...and continued to claim the same reservation numbers afterwards. He's claimed:
1.They were going to use 100% RE H2
2. Claimed the trucks were going to have 1200 miles of range
3. Claimed that they had H2 costs down below $4/kg
He has specifically walked back 1 and 2...and 3 is just outright idiotic.
I believe they're still planning on building out 700 stations, and offering 1M miles of free fuel for every semi ordered. The above information is just the tip of the iceberg.
If none of this throws up any red flags, by all means invest to your hearts content.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Only if the stock is worth $0.00.Is it really free services if you gave them stock for the services?
I loved in that interview how they don't even have full scale battery BMS working. Just 1/4 scale. They said they would let someone else figure that out?????
I do think Nikola will succeed. But investors won't. The valuation is insane. It is worth about 1/8 of what it is valued at. And when they do have vehicles being built, they will come out the door with a lot of growing pains. Because of no legacy operations, they might be in the top 5 electric truck makers in 2025.
I predict their hydrogen products will trip them up, but the BEV's will take them through.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Ford Mustang Mach-E Dealer Orders Open June 22
General pre-orders for the Mach-E start this month, but I doubt more than the "First Edition" will ship this year. And so far Ford has remained mum on the numbers.
"We are not providing any numbers and [are] encouraging customers to place orders for the other models due to limited sales volumes in the first year," the representative added. (source)
General pre-orders for the Mach-E start this month, but I doubt more than the "First Edition" will ship this year. And so far Ford has remained mum on the numbers.
"We are not providing any numbers and [are] encouraging customers to place orders for the other models due to limited sales volumes in the first year," the representative added. (source)
VW launching the ID3 with known defective software:
Electric Cars From Volkswagen Meant To Unseat Tesla Will Be Incomplete | Investor's Business Daily
Interestingly, they say the software issue cost Diess his job as the head of the VW brand. Since he's continuing as the head of the entire group, it's not clear whether putting someone else in charge of the VW brand is really a punishment, but at least these folks think so.
Electric Cars From Volkswagen Meant To Unseat Tesla Will Be Incomplete | Investor's Business Daily
Interestingly, they say the software issue cost Diess his job as the head of the VW brand. Since he's continuing as the head of the entire group, it's not clear whether putting someone else in charge of the VW brand is really a punishment, but at least these folks think so.
ID3 initial deliveries delayed until September:
Volkswagen ID.3 delayed to September for first European deliveries
Volkswagen ID.3 delayed to September for first European deliveries
"European deliveries of the Volkswagen ID.3, the first in a family of mass-market electric cars from the German automaker, have been delayed to September."
"Customers can also opt to wait until fourth-quarter 2020 for delivery, at which point cars will ship with all features activated, according to VW."
Huh, so 3 months mostly, 6 months definitely?
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
VW ID.3 EU prices posted on Reddit: ID.3 1st prices revealed : electricvehicles
39.995 € for the Pro 1st
45.995 € for the Pro 1st Plus
49.995 € for the Pro 1st Max
The ID.3 was meant to be significantly longer range for a significantly lower price, and at this point it seems like they've just barely beat the Nissan Leaf e+ (VW ID.3 1st is 260 miles, Leaf e+ is 226 miles, and the Leaf e+ starts at 45.500 €).
Why would the ID.3 sell any better than the Leaf e+ has?
39.995 € for the Pro 1st
45.995 € for the Pro 1st Plus
49.995 € for the Pro 1st Max
The ID.3 was meant to be significantly longer range for a significantly lower price, and at this point it seems like they've just barely beat the Nissan Leaf e+ (VW ID.3 1st is 260 miles, Leaf e+ is 226 miles, and the Leaf e+ starts at 45.500 €).
Why would the ID.3 sell any better than the Leaf e+ has?
Doggydogworld
Active Member
VW is much bigger than Nissan in Europe. Also, these "1st" prices are inflated ~10k (Tesla intro strategy). Unless demand overwhelms them I expect regular pricing in ~6 months. They also plan a low range version that will cost much less, rumored to start around 20k. That would boost volumes considerably.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
I would take any rumored starting price with a large grain of salt. I remember how last year the Porsche Taycan was rumored to start around $75,000 and how so many of the reservation holders were disappointed when it came in closer to $100,000.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
I have not seen any historical data that would indicate low range BEVs are desirable, even at much cheaper prices. The i-miev, for instance, sold terribly. Arguably, the looks may have had an impact on sales...but at the $20k pricepoint and limited range, you're competing with a multitude of vehicles that offer more utility, and used BEVs that offer considerably more range.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Well, the lowest announced range is 330 km WLTP (205 miles) which should do fine in Europe.
Base Taycan is not yet available. Taycan 4S is 103.8k, similar to Panamera 4S at 105k. Taycan was always planned to price similar to Panamera. Base Panamera is 87k so base Taycan will probably be 85-86k. I never heard 75k, except maybe including tax incentives.
I'm pretty sure the 20k ID.3 rumor includes subsidies. VAG has the e-Up/Mii/Citigo triplets for the low range/low price segment, with an eventual plan to replace them with a smaller MEB car aka ID.1.
I expect ID.3 base price will come in at €29k before subsidies. The 420 km Pro should be €34k before subsidies vs. €49k for the 408 km Model 3 SR+. And the 550 km Pro S at €39k vs. €57k for the 3 LR. Model 3 is faster and longer, of course, but hatchbacks are popular in Europe so the ID.3 should do well. If they ever get the software to work.
I'm not understanding you here. Doesn't that data listed show a car that gets ~15% more range at a ~13% lower price? And are both prices with VAT? If with VAT, isn't that cheaper than the model 3?
I was playing around with the Porsche configurator. With relatively modest options, and including the 93 kWh battery pack, a 4S configuration can easily hit $130-140K MSRP. Even things like heated seats are an option. Not sure what they can leave out to get the base price down to $85k - unless maybe they eliminate the front motor and go to a single speed gearbox in the rear.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Right, but you're talking about a vehicle with lower range (at half the cost) significantly boosting volumes. The 205 mile version will be EPA ~180. So, presumably the $20k vehicle will be something like ~100 miles EPA.
I do not see a reason to expect a $20k, potentially sub-100 mile range, version of the ID3 having a significant impact on volume.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
I'm trying to find a definitive source on prices, but it's difficult across different countries with different incentives... So for now let's assume ev-database.org is correct and pick Germany as the country, and assume they're all quoted with VAT as most things are in Europe.
Nissan Leaf e+: €38,200 for 385 km WLTP (€45,500 was evidently for the limited edition)
VW ID.3 Pro 1st: €39,995 for 420 km WLTP.
Model 3 SR+: €47,560 for 409 km WLTP.
So about 9% increase in range for 5% increase in price from the Leaf to the ID.3
And the ID.3 Pro 1st seems to come very poorly equipped as standard. From the VW press release:
"The basic version of the ID.3 1ST includes a navigation system, a DAB+ digital radio, seat heating and steering wheel heating, armrests at the front, a Mode 2 charging cable and 18-inch light-alloy wheels—comparable with Comfort equipment in the compact vehicle segment.
The ID.3 1ST Plus additionally features a rear view camera system, Adaptive Cruise Control and the Kessy Advanced keyless access locking and starting system. The vehicle interior of the ID.3 1ST Plus also includes design seats, a center console (including two USB-C connections at the rear that can be locked with a roller shutter and feature lighting) as well as ambient lighting. On the outside, tinted windows, the exterior Style package in silver, matrix LED headlights, matrix side lights, brake lights, turn indicators and tail light clusters as well as 19-inch light-alloy wheels also form part of the equipment scope.
The top-of-the-range version, the ID.3 1ST Max, also includes the augmented reality (AR) head-up display, the Beats sound system, a large panorama sliding/tilting glass roof to underline the feeling of space as well as 20-inch light-alloy wheels."
So you need to shell out €45,995 if you want an ID.3 with a backup camera. Or €49,995 if you want an ID.3 with a glass roof.
For comparison, the Model 3 SR+ with backup camera, Autopilot, and glass roof standard starts at €47,560 in Germany.
Sources:
Nissan announces new LEAF 3.ZERO and new LEAF e+ 3.ZERO with higher output and longer range (original Nissan Leaf source)
Nissan Leaf e+ (new Nissan Leaf source)
VW ID.3 Preis: First Edition ab 29.407 Euro erhältlich (ID.3 price source)
https://media.vw.com/releases/1198 (ID.3 equipment source)
https://ev-database.org/car/1177/Tesla-Model-3-Standard-Range-Plus (Model 3 SR+ Source)
Thanks for that. That does indeed show very little progress. So all they have left going for the ID.3 is that it's a hatchback (which is a pretty big selling point), and that it's made in Germany. Hopefully they'll be able to bring production costs (and thus sale price) down before the Brandenburg model Y kicks their sales in the teeth.
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