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Tesla BEV Competition Developments

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But the mainstream auto makers don't want to offer something that is real competition to Tesla because that would destroy their ICE sales if it took off ...

Ignoring the fact that there are not just 2 types of hybrid buyers (the Porsche 918 jockeys would be about a type 6 buyer):

Exactly what proof do you have that any auto related business does not want to sell product?

If you would buy 50 mpg cars, there would be more. If you would buy 20,000lb APCs, there would be more. If you would buy $1 million cars, there would be more. If you would buy $12k cars, there would be more.

AND ...

If you would buy EVs there would be more. It's not exactly rocket science. Why did all the motorcycle makers start selling crappy HD copies? Terrible, lousy bikes. Because we bought them. They would put 2 tires on a turrd if it would sell. Why doesn't HD sell a 600cc sportbike? Because you won't buy it.

With cars, you buy CUVs, so that's what most the sales are. THEY ARE THE SAME DAMN STATION WAGON CONCEPT FROM 100 YEARS AGO!!! But now that they are labeled SUV/CUV, they are now cool again so we buy them.
 
With cars, you buy CUVs, so that's what most the sales are. THEY ARE THE SAME DAMN STATION WAGON CONCEPT FROM 100 YEARS AGO!!! But now that they are labeled SUV/CUV, they are now cool again so we buy them.

Well other than seating height, ground clearance, and AWD. I've often taken my RAV4's off road where none of the station wagons of my youth would make it more than a few vehicle lengths. Since they have distinct capabilities that station wagons do not it's more than a stretch to say they are the same thing.
 
If you would buy EVs there would be more. It's not exactly rocket science.
It's not rocket science, it's business. As others have said, legacy manufacturers don't make EVs that mainstream buyers want to buy, because it would cannabilize their ICE business. They have massive investment in ICE which they would lose by making compelling EVs at the right price point. The pre-orders for Model 3 show there is a pent up demand for less expensive EVs that don't suck, and that demand hadn't been met by the legacy manufacturers.
 
Well other than seating height, ground clearance, and AWD. I've often taken my RAV4's off road where none of the station wagons of my youth would make it more than a few vehicle lengths. Since they have distinct capabilities that station wagons do not it's more than a stretch to say they are the same thing.

The Chevrolet Suburban came out in the 1930s with seating for 8. It's just a pickup with a station wagon body on it. I do not know if the first models had a 4x4 option, but they do now.

It was just a station wagon because the term SUV was not invented.
 
The Chevrolet Suburban came out in the 1930s with seating for 8. It's just a pickup with a station wagon body on it. I do not know if the first models had a 4x4 option, but they do now.

It was just a station wagon because the term SUV was not invented.

I'm not aware of any 4wd vehicles from before the WW2 era, and I'm pretty sure it didn't make it into Surburbans (or for that matter into the associated Chevrolet Pickups) until the 60s.
 
Or, more accurately, if there were more quality EV's we would buy more. Over priced short range weirdmobiles don't count. The pent up demand for a real EV at a lower price point is huge, as the Model 3 reservations prove.

There are a lot of people out there who wouldn't really consider an EV unless it was better than an ICE. I was pretty much in that group when I started looking. Hybrids and non-Tesla BEVs force the consumer to make sacrifices to get better fuel economy or to switch to pure electric. It's a meme the car companies want to perpetuate which is also echoed by a lot of people on the left that if you want to save the world, you need to sacrifice a lot. In the case of cars, you need to sacrifice range, performance, and/or cargo space to be environmentally conscious. And the car companies have complied by making people sacrifice their dignity also.

Then along comes Tesla with a car that out performs ICEs in most areas, has more cargo space than other ICEs, and while it doesn't get as far on a charge, they have a workable compromise for long distance. That appeals to the people who otherwise wouldn't consider an EV. Except for the price, you not only don't need to compromise, you can get even more car than any ICE.

When I started looking for a car, I thought I would be eliminating a lot of cars due to size because I have very long legs and end up with horrible lower back pain on long trips if I don't have enough leg room, but I thought I would be able to replace my 1992 Buick with something that had: at least the same acceleration (0-60 in about 8s), at least 80% the cargo space (20 cf trunk), at least 25% better gas mileage, and I preferred a sedan not an SUV. I had noticed many cars have a lot more HP than they did 24 years ago, and they have gotten smaller, but with the addition of more computerization, I expected more improvement in gas mileage than I found.

In the end only 1 car even met all the above criteria: the Model S and it blew most of my criteria away. That's what sold me. Driving an economical car will get me a lot less flak in the Portland area where that's a big deal to a lot of people and I do believe we should be moving away from fossil fuels for economic reasons as well as the impact on the environment nobody can disagree with (oil spills, train fires, refinery fires, leaking oil onto the roads, smog, etc.), but I work from home and only need a car for long road trips to California (it looks like I'll be making a number of them in the next year or two) as well as a good car for local errands. I wouldn't be burning all that much gasoline no matter what I bought. I just didn't want a gas guzzler on principle.

There are other types of buyers of hybrids and BEVs (other than Tesla), but the cars are marketed primarily to eco buyers who expect to get a crappy driving experience compared to an ICE. When gas prices were high, people were making the sacrifice and buying hybrids to get better gas mileage, but now that gas prices (especially in the US) are down, they are back to buying ICEs creating a slump in the hybrid/BEV market, except for Tesla.

And I don't consider specialty, limited production hypercars that may be EVs or hybrids. Those cars are only marketed to the super rich who have a large garage full of exotic cars. Even major manufacturers can afford to make a few of these and they won't put the slightest dent in their ICE sales.
 
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Concerning future competition.

It occurred to me today that any new competitors that come online in the next few years would have a real competitive disadvantage that I don't often hear people bring up. We are so used to thinking of Tesla as being the new kid on the block, by 2017, 2018, a new offering by another company would be the new, risky, bug-ridden car, and Tesla the old-guard making high-quality vehicles with an established track record. (model X ramp issues would be a distant memory, lets hope).

Even one of the big automakers' car, already suffering from no supercharger network, would be buying the risky upstart car.
 
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Concerning future competition.

It occurred to me today that any new competitors that come online in the next few years would have a real competitive disadvantage that I don't often hear people bring up. We are so used to thinking of Tesla as being the new kid on the block, by 2017, 2018, a new offering by another company would be the new, risky, bug-ridden car, and Tesla the old-guard making high-quality vehicles with an established track record. (model X ramp issues would be a distant memory, lets hope).

Even one of the big automakers' car, already suffering from no supercharger network, would be buying the risky upstart car.
Are you talking about an established automaker making an EV or a completely new upstart? For an established automaker they already have branding power to fall back on, so what you say might not be applicable. For a new upstart, people already view Tesla in a similar light (whenever a new company comes, it inevitably gets compared to Tesla as the "established" EV maker).
 
Honda et al have branding power.

But when it comes to hybrids Toyota is the 800 lbs gorilla because people think it is the hybrid specialist and therefore makes much better hybrids.

In 2020, when the vast majority of people think electric vehicles they will think Tesla. That Tesla is the BEV specialist and therefore makes better BEVs.

Today, the vast majority of people have never heard of Tesla electric vehicles.
 
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Are you talking about an established automaker making an EV or a completely new upstart? For an established automaker they already have branding power to fall back on, so what you say might not be applicable. For a new upstart, people already view Tesla in a similar light (whenever a new company comes, it inevitably gets compared to Tesla as the "established" EV maker).

Apple, Samsung, BYD: Major headwind.
Established automaker: Less bad, but yes. A fully electric BMW new for 2019 vs the much more established Tesla lineup. People who are cross shopping would have sharper questions for BMW. Basically I am saying that one could turn on its head the argument that "established automakers could eat Tesla's lunch". In a few years Tesla will be the established automaker in the EV space.
 
My recent experience with an established automaker that will eat Tesla's lunch:

I just got a new lease for a 2017 Volt to tie me over to the Model 3. I told the dealer that I am interested in a shorter-term lease because I'll be getting the Model 3 in less than two years. I was really hoping that he will say something like, you know, the Chevy Bolt is coming out later this year... there's no need to wait for the Tesla. Crickets. Nothing. He knew about the Model 3 and we started talking about the Model S, and "what's the big deal about this car, I don't get it. You could buy 3 Volts for the same price". But it seemed like he had no idea that his own company is coming out with a "Tesla killer" one year early and is supposed to be the true mass market electric car that everyone is waiting for. To top it off, he knew nothing about the new features on the second gen Volt. I was basically walking him through it during the test drive. The steering wheel paddles that control the regenerative braking? "Weird, on all the other cars that paddle pulls up your favorites on the screen".

It was a very disappointing experience, and the last time I'm setting foot in a dealership. (Luckily the Volt shouldn't need an oil change anytime soon because I should be driving on electric 95% of the time). Anyone selling "My next car is a Tesla" bumper stickers? I should have taped one to the Volt as I was getting the keys from the dealer.
 
My recent experience with an established automaker that will eat Tesla's lunch:

I just got a new lease for a 2017 Volt to tie me over to the Model 3. I told the dealer that I am interested in a shorter-term lease because I'll be getting the Model 3 in less than two years. I was really hoping that he will say something like, you know, the Chevy Bolt is coming out later this year... there's no need to wait for the Tesla. Crickets. Nothing. He knew about the Model 3 and we started talking about the Model S, and "what's the big deal about this car, I don't get it. You could buy 3 Volts for the same price". But it seemed like he had no idea that his own company is coming out with a "Tesla killer" one year early and is supposed to be the true mass market electric car that everyone is waiting for. To top it off, he knew nothing about the new features on the second gen Volt. I was basically walking him through it during the test drive. The steering wheel paddles that control the regenerative braking? "Weird, on all the other cars that paddle pulls up your favorites on the screen".

It was a very disappointing experience, and the last time I'm setting foot in a dealership. (Luckily the Volt shouldn't need an oil change anytime soon because I should be driving on electric 95% of the time). Anyone selling "My next car is a Tesla" bumper stickers? I should have taped one to the Volt as I was getting the keys from the dealer.

Interesting. I tried to lease a new volt for two years until my Model 3 was available. The chevy dealers would not do a two year lease, so I ended up with a used Toyota Avalon to replace my older Avalon (totaled hitting a big buck streaking across the road; after hitting 3 deer in an 8 year span, I have decided no more driving in the woods after sunset).
 
Interesting. I tried to lease a new volt for two years until my Model 3 was available. The chevy dealers would not do a two year lease, so I ended up with a used Toyota Avalon to replace my older Avalon (totaled hitting a big buck streaking across the road; after hitting 3 deer in an 8 year span, I have decided no more driving in the woods after sunset).

Yeah, I ended up leasing it for 3 years, because they didn't agree to a 2-year lease. I'll have to figure out how to transfer the lease to someone else when I get the Model 3. It still made more sense than buying off my old Volt with the outrageous residual price, or extending the lease with the higher monthly cost while still driving the old model with the shorter range.