Tesla Energy and utility scale projects

[renim]

The scale of these projects is now 10x of just a couple years back.

Australian billionaire to back $14 billion solar power supply to Singapore: AFR

Can't seem to find the amount of battery storage, but it's on the GW scale.

The Gigafactory is the product. How much should we charge?

google earth timor sea Google Earth

East Timor, Australia and the 'Timor Gap'

timor trough Australian Tsunami Warning System

Ok, the core reason why no one has built a undersea pipeline from timor sea oil fields to timor, is because there is continental shelf edge trench just off the coast of timor-leste.i suppose electric wire is safer than oil pipeline, and easier to lay, but underwater and seismic is a dangerous combination. Particularly after the 2004 boxing day tsunami.

A far more obvious location would be in island of Borneo

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla big battery adds new capacity and services on march to 100pct renewables grid | RenewEconomy
Guess Hornsdale will take some of that Powerpacks

A couple interesting quotes:

The addition of hundreds of new Tesla Powerpack batteries – at a cost of $71 million – will add 50MW/64.5MWh capacity to the existing facilities of 100MW/129MWh, lifting its capacity by 50 per cent and reinforcing its ranking as the biggest lithium-ion battery in the world.

Neoen noted that in its first full year of operation, the battery saved consumers more than $50 million, and these savings would continue to grow once the new addition was in place in 2020. It also earned a profit of $22 million in its first full year of operations.

So the original install cost was about $96 million, and it made $20 million in profit and saved consumers $50 million in the first year, that thing is like printing money. A ~73% return on investment in just the first year, and the savings are expected to grow even more.
The other thing to note is that Tesla has raised the price as adding 50% more capacity is going to cost them ~74% of the cost of the original install. (Tesla really was giving "samples" out to prove the worth and get them hooked.)

 

[jhm]

A couple interesting quotes:





So the original install cost was about $96 million, and it made $20 million in profit and saved consumers $50 million in the first year, that thing is like printing money. A ~73% return on investment in just the first year, and the savings are expected to grow even more.
The other thing to note is that Tesla has raised the price as adding 50% more capacity is going to cost them ~74% of the cost of the original install. (Tesla really was giving "samples" out to prove the worth and get them hooked.)

When the returns are this good, Neoen risks having competitors step in and seize the opportunity. As the whole utility industry wakes up to this, it should create pretty massive demand for batteries. This is why Tesla can raise the price, which in turn helps Tesla expand Gigafactory capacity at a faster rate. Meanwhile the cost of integrating solar and wind in the grid drops as more batteries are deployed.

In short, we could be on the verge of a major growth spurt for batteries, solar and wind.

 

[mspohr]

google earth timor sea Google Earth

East Timor, Australia and the 'Timor Gap'

timor trough Australian Tsunami Warning System

Ok, the core reason why no one has built a undersea pipeline from timor sea oil fields to timor, is because there is continental shelf edge trench just off the coast of timor-leste.i suppose electric wire is safer than oil pipeline, and easier to lay, but underwater and seismic is a dangerous combination. Particularly after the 2004 boxing day tsunami.

A far more obvious location would be in island of Borneo

I don't think there is much seismic risk to a power cable. The earth moves a few feet and the cable moves with it. Lots of undersea cables (power and communications) all over the world don't seem to have many problems with earthquakes.
Pipelines, OTOH, don't like to move much and easily break open. (Frequent oil pipeline spills all over the world even without earthquakes)

 

[Doggydogworld]

The other thing to note is that Tesla has raised the price as adding 50% more capacity is going to cost them ~74% of the cost of the original install. (Tesla really was giving "samples" out to prove the worth and get them hooked.)

Some of this is AUD decline, it's worth 68 US cents now vs. close to 80 cents back in 2017. These prices probably include some additional infrastructure or something - $750/kWh sounds too much even for high power batteries.

As for saving customers money, have South Australia retail per kWh prices dropped? Or is this a "theoretical" savings vs. some imagined higher rate that would have been necessary without St. Elon's divine intervention?

When the returns are this good, Neoen risks having competitors step in and seize the opportunity. As the whole utility industry wakes up to this, it should create pretty massive demand for batteries.

Arbitrage returns diminish very quickly with scale. And these returns only exist in the first place because SA's grid and faux market are completely broken. Of course that's not so uncommon in failed states, e.g. CA, some third world countries, etc.

 

[renim]

Some of this is AUD decline, it's worth 68 US cents now vs. close to 80 cents back in 2017. These prices probably include some additional infrastructure or something - $750/kWh sounds too much even for high power batteries.

As for saving customers money, have South Australia retail per kWh prices dropped? Or is this a "theoretical" savings vs. some imagined higher rate that would have been necessary without St. Elon's divine intervention?

Arbitrage returns diminish very quickly with scale. And these returns only exist in the first place because SA's grid and faux market are completely broken. Of course that's not so uncommon in failed states, e.g. CA, some third world countries, etc.

yeah, currency changes are probably the primary reason for price changes,

as for SA electricity price, Compare South Australia Electricity Prices – Canstar Blue they have the highest rates in the country (Nov 2019 article) i don't know about back in 2017, but something is broken there.

 

[renim]

Electricity Costs Per kWh | QLD, SA, VIC, NSW Rates – Canstar Blue

 

[renim]

situation in Qld
Solar households to face hit from zero prices

I'm covered because my solar grandfathered to the old feed in tariff of 44c/kWh, but the reality for new solar is that they must compete against other new solar, which in Qld is cheap and easy.

 

[Buckminster]

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b3cf7f5e-546a-4a65-9888-c928b914b529
Q4 letter - pg 9, first megapacks installed. Anyone know if this is California Moss?

 

[adiggs]

Another proof point for grids built around renewable energy sources and batteries.
Wind and batteries saved the day when storm cut South Australia adrift | RenewEconomy

And another reason I encourage everybody to add the Renew Economy site to their daily 'newspaper' - this way you can track what's happening with the Australian power grid. My guess is that all the stuff they're going through - we'll be going through it as well here in the US in 3-7 years. And I do mean all of it

South Australia (a state in Australia) had a failure of the primary (only?) interconnector to the neighboring state of Victoria at the end of last month. As a result, the SA grid has had to switch and operate as an island - no exports and no imports.

Making this particularly difficult is that one of Australia's biggest Aluminum smelters is on the SA side of the interconnected break, so they've also had to figure out how to island a grid with 500-800MW minimum demand along with an industrial consumer that has it's own 500MW of demand.

And the grid is continuing to run on 50-75% solar and wind energy sources.


You read renew economy and follow the Australian power sector because you get South Australia who is aggressively pursuing a net 100% RE grid by 2030, along with other states and federal government that are trying to keep coal going as their primary energy source. Ahh - just like home . Except I think they're several years into the future relative to the US dealing with the technology - benefits, constraints, how things change.

 

[canoemore]

I found this article really interesting. Had some cool details about the direction Tesla is moving with regard to becoming the a distributed utility: Tesla Steps Into The Utility Space With New Grid Controller Patent | CleanTechnica

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

situation in Qld
Solar households to face hit from zero prices

From the article, about Queensland:

The "sunshine state", which has a target for 1 million solar rooftops by 2020, has 25 suburbs or towns with over 50 per cent solar penetration, including one with more than 70 per cent.

 

[Doggydogworld]

South Australia (a state in Australia) had a failure of the primary (only?) interconnector to the neighboring state of Victoria at the end of last month.

The 650 MW Heywood interconnect failed. The smaller MurrayLink 220 MW HVDC interconnect stayed up.

As a result, the SA grid has had to switch and operate as an island - no exports and no imports.

There were imports and exports over MurrayLink, but HVDC is zero frequency and can't help keep grids synchronized. "Island" means South Australia had to maintain frequency control on their own. (It may be a good thing MurrayLink is HVDC, I'm not sure 220 MW is enough to maintain synch between two grids that size).

Making this particularly difficult is that one of Australia's biggest Aluminum smelters is on the SA side of the interconnected break, so they've also had to figure out how to island a grid with 500-800MW minimum demand along with an industrial consumer that has it's own 500MW of demand.

Fortunately the 566 MW Mortlake gas powerplant in Victoria was also on the SA side of the break. That powered the smelter. They still had to keep the Mortlake/smelter duo synced to the rest of the SA grid, though, which was non-trivial.

And the grid is continuing to run on 50-75% solar and wind energy sources.

More like 25-75%, averaging around 50%. I just checked and gas/oil was ~70% the past 48 hours while wind/solar was ~30%. It's close to 50/50 over the past 3 months. They shut some wind/solar down after the break and ramped up some gas powerplants to help keep the grid stable (click fuel mix tab).
NEM data dashboard

 

[Buckminster]

Dave T talks a bit about the Solar Roof at the end:

The moat around this product is gonna look like Hawaii in the middle of the Pacific.

 

[MC3OZ]

(Hang in there this will be a long post)
On another forum I hang around discussing electricity grids with a mixture of people, including power engineers.
That experience is similar to TMC, hang around knowable people you pickup jargon and learn things.
One of these people is an ex-power-engineer who is conservative and doesn't like change.
The criticism of RE that he regularly makes is the following:-

• It doesn't add to system strength.
• It doesn't have inertia
• It is not dispatchable...

In all of these cases batteries are the answer, and this is the point of my post.
Batteries are going to do most of the work in grid control and system strength in future.
This article is relevant, I recommend you read it after reading my post.
Control versus inertia: Lessons from South Australia's latest separation | RenewEconomy

The traditional FF grid was built before computers and the internet.. my simplified view is as follows:-

{non buffered} Synchronous Spinning machines with Inertia - control mechanism - Frequency and voltage {+internet recently}

After future grid with high RE looks as follows

{buffered} independent generators - control mechanism, computers + internet.

The aim for an electricity grid is :- stable frequency and voltage i.e. Supply = Demand

A traditional FF grid is real time non-buffered, changes in frequency (demand) essentially cause plant to ramp up or down changing supply.

Those with a pro-FF agenda or mindset say this control mechanism is the best solution and overlook it's limitations.
Rather than perfect control this solution delivers voltage and frequency that is mostly within spec and does vary in quality by location.

As can be seen in the link I posted the Hornsdale battery performed very well in the separation event... in terms of keeping frequency and voltage stable batteries have one big advantage, they can smooth out supply and demand and do that quickly.

So if we take the criticisms above:-

• System strength - most inverters automatically back off (over supply), batteries help (under supply)
• inertia - interia is simply a form of stored energy - batteries can store a lot of energy.
• Dispatchable - provided they have stored energy, batteries are dispatchable.

The main advantage I see for batteries are:-

• Domestic - time shifting, islanding, system strength
• Grid - time shifting, system strength, "Emulating Synchronous Machines"

"Emulating Synchronous Machines" - is my concept derives from discussing the SA separation event.
Essentially:-

Battery + Computer (looks like Synchronous Condensor) << Frequency and Voltage >> Happy FF machines*

Happy FF machines* = It is OK guys he is one of us...

Why this is relevant is a Battery + Computer may be cheaper and work better than Synchronous Condensor.

More generally my opinion is the combination of batteries and inverters can work together to control frequency and voltage in a much tighter band than a traditional FF grid.

It might not play out exactly as I predict but the future is bright for batteries at domestic and grid level, they are the logical way to ensure stable frequency and voltage.

 

[generalenthu]

Cross posting from the general thread:

Fred at electrek has a nice scoop on a not-so-new Tesla product, the Tesla Autobidder.

Tesla has a new product: Autobidder, a step toward becoming an electric utility - Electrek

For sometime, I have been suspecting something like this would be a no-brainer. Cool to see that they have had this for about 3 years.

Essentially, when the energy production moves to solar and wind from coal and Nat gas, the biggest problem is grid stabilization. A lot of the value in this new order will be captured not by the commodity panel manufacturers, or the windfarms, or even the batteries. They're cheap, and interchangeable. And of course, Tesla can make more margins on the batteries than anyone else, thanks to their tech and scale. The real value add here is in making all these come together on the supply side to provide stable and predictable power. We have seen this happen down under, where the Hornsdale power reserve makes insane money on providing such services. I have not seen anything that says Tesla structured these contracts to get a share of the revenue, but that very likely is the case. Better still, become an utility and all the money is yours. (Yay UK)

In the US, I can see this happening in Texas, which has the most deregulated grid (ERCOT). This combined with one of the highest penetration of renewables, make the case for Tesla becoming a utility there. There's a tremendous opportunity here, and no competition to speak of.

To cap this off, when the plugged in Teslas and the whole house HVAC+water heater becomes a demand lever, Tesla can get additional payments, which would probably be shared with the vehicle / HVAC owners.

Exciting times ahead

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Helping run the show would be a good way to avoid under-compensation for grid storage and ancillary tasks. Batteries replace a MASSIVE amount of expense that's currently handled by peaker plants that charge a LOT. That cost(compensation) can be allowed to fade away eventually, but you certainly want some of it right now to make project costs work. Have a role in managing, and more importantly quantifying, all these ancillary "products" would be a huge help.

Starting to see glimpses of this $1T+ valuation.

 

[bonaire]

Cross posting from the general thread:

Fred at electrek has a nice scoop on a not-so-new Tesla product, the Tesla Autobidder.

Tesla has a new product: Autobidder, a step toward becoming an electric utility - Electrek

For sometime, I have been suspecting something like this would be a no-brainer. Cool to see that they have had this for about 3 years.

Essentially, when the energy production moves to solar and wind from coal and Nat gas, the biggest problem is grid stabilization. A lot of the value in this new order will be captured not by the commodity panel manufacturers, or the windfarms, or even the batteries. They're cheap, and interchangeable. And of course, Tesla can make more margins on the batteries than anyone else, thanks to their tech and scale. The real value add here is in making all these come together on the supply side to provide stable and predictable power. We have seen this happen down under, where the Hornsdale power reserve makes insane money on providing such services. I have not seen anything that says Tesla structured these contracts to get a share of the revenue, but that very likely is the case. Better still, become an utility and all the money is yours. (Yay UK)

In the US, I can see this happening in Texas, which has the most deregulated grid (ERCOT). This combined with one of the highest penetration of renewables, make the case for Tesla becoming a utility there. There's a tremendous opportunity here, and no competition to speak of.

To cap this off, when the plugged in Teslas and the whole house HVAC+water heater becomes a demand lever, Tesla can get additional payments, which would probably be shared with the vehicle / HVAC owners.

Exciting times ahead

The only reason to become a utility is to take advantage of the current scenario of fast-response pricing (as they did in Australia) whereby such pricing is based on decades old hot-standby costs and spin-up speeds of fast response systems. Do we all think that such pricing will last into the future? Batteries taking advantage of a system that is based on old technology does not mean that the pricing will exist forever to be taken advantage of. ISOs and regulators will see this as a gamable system and then adjust pricing to equitable guidelines. if someone installs a $20M project and starts reaping maybe $30M a year in peak-demand pricing advantage due to some aspect of the model that is easily broken - then this will be fixed in future regulatory pricing.

If being a utility was lucrative, everyone would be doing it. It just doesn't seem to be that.

 

[bonaire]

Helping run the show would be a good way to avoid under-compensation for grid storage and ancillary tasks. Batteries replace a MASSIVE amount of expense that's currently handled by peaker plants that charge a LOT. That cost(compensation) can be allowed to fade away eventually, but you certainly want some of it right now to make project costs work. Have a role in managing, and more importantly quantifying, all these ancillary "products" would be a huge help.

Starting to see glimpses of this $1T+ valuation.

Peaker plants DO NOT charge a lot. And that charge is available to battery components as well. It is based on the price paid to fast-responders in a regulated industry. Fast responders are those who can come online within <n> minutes or <n> seconds even. Peaker plants just fall in line with fast-response pricing guidelines. It is a system that is not built to be gamed - but rather a system of incentives for faster response. This is why they went into Australia. Because the peak-pricing of MWh production during critical peaks was $3000+ AUD. This is an absurd price for a grid supplier to get paid for 1 MWh. In the USA, typical MWh are priced at $20-30 during non-peak periods.

On the east coast, PJM regulates with some nice real-time data. The Locaized Marginal Price (LMP) only really jumps > 80-100/MWh during hot summer afternoons. Demand is so low now that it is usually under $20/MWh. Would you build a plant that would get paid .02/kWH and wait for those days which it jumps to roughly $140-200/MWh for a few hours a day - about 20 days a year? Australia has a peak payment scheme which is attractive. USA doesn't have such a lucrative scheme in any grid segment.

http://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations.aspx

 

[Dr. J]

Australia has a peak payment scheme which is attractive. USA doesn't have such a lucrative scheme in any grid segment.

If you assume Texas is part of the USA, oh yes, it does. At times. This is from last summer:
Texas power prices nearly triple to record high as heat bakes state

Next-day power prices at the ERCOT North hub soared from $265 per megawatt hour (MWh) for Thursday to $751 for Friday, their highest on record, according to Refinitiv data going back to 2010.

On Thursday, real-time prices rose to ERCOT’s $9,000/MWh offer cap for several 15-minute intervals for a second time this week. That was the fourth time prices hit that cap after January 2018, May 30 and Aug. 13.