Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

[UkNorthampton]

Hi @Mio S and @UkNorthampton,
Unfortunately, ACEA doesn't include Turkey when they publish these two monthly numbers:

• Passenger car sales in Europe
• Tesla sales in Europe

Therefore including Turkey would create two problems:

• It makes it impossible to calculate the EV adoption rate which is calculated by dividing EV sales by passenger car sales
• It makes our Tesla Europe number incomparable to ACEA's Tesla Europe number. There would be two different Tesla numbers for Europe circulating around instead of one. We collect the numbers from each country about 13 days sooner than ACEA each month but the numbers are very close.

I don't follow. Is collecting Turkey data on Google sheets going to mess up formulas / summation.

Also ACEA about page doesn't make it clear why they have relevance. I haven't been part of this since the start of course.

"The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, or ACEA, unites Europe’s 14 major car, truck, van and bus makers."

To me, Berlin made model Y deliveries to Turkey seems relevant. Where should a sizeable percentage of Tesla Berlin production be counted? 4700 in a month is higher than most other European countries, top 3 or 4 (likely to grow in my opinion, as word, showrooms and charging infrastructure spreads. Pretty brave to be one of first EV adopters).

If Berlin is at 5000 a week, then 4700 is 20-25% of monthly production.

 

[Troy]

@UkNorthampton, let's say a Tesla fan reads a news article that says 3,476,000 passenger cars were sold in Europe in Q3 2023. Also, let's assume this Tesla fan knows about the wiki project here and let's assume the wiki shows Tesla sold 93,700 cars in Europe in Q3. What can you do with these two numbers?

You can calculate Tesla's market share in Europe. In this example, the calculation would be 93,700/3,476,000= 2.70%. However, this calculation would be wrong because, in this example, 93,700 includes 8,100 sales in Turkey but the 3,476,000 passenger cars number doesn't include Turkey. Therefore the correct calculation should be 85,600/3,476,000 = 2.46%. In his calculation, neither 85,600 nor 3,476,000 includes Turkey.

This is not the only issue. It also causes a similar problem when somebody tries to calculate Tesla's market share in BEV sales in Europe. As you know, the Wiki here shows only Tesla sales in Europe but it doesn't show BEVs sold by other brands. However, ACEA does. Let's assume ACEA says 505,000 BEVs were sold in Europe in Q3 2023. Also, let's assume our wiki shows 93,700 Tesla sales in Europe in Q3 2023. With these two numbers, you can calculate Tesla's market share in BEVs. That would be 93,700/505,000= 18.55%. However, this calculation would be wrong too because 93,700 includes 8,100 sales in Turkey but the 505,000 number doesn't include Turkey. It causes too many problems.

ACEA is the main source for Europe passenger car sales numbers and Europe BEV sales numbers for all brands. Even Tesla uses them.

 

[UkNorthampton]

@UkNorthampton, let's say a Tesla fan reads a news article that says 3,476,000 passenger cars were sold in Europe in Q3 2023. Also, let's assume this Tesla fan knows about the wiki project here and let's assume the wiki shows Tesla sold 93,700 cars in Europe in Q3. What can you do with these two numbers?

You can calculate Tesla's market share in Europe. In this example, the calculation would be 93,700/3,476,000= 2.70%. However, this calculation would be wrong because, in this example, 93,700 includes 8,100 sales in Turkey but the 3,476,000 passenger cars number doesn't include Turkey. Therefore the correct calculation should be 85,600/3,476,000 = 2.46%. In his calculation, neither 85,600 nor 3,476,000 includes Turkey.

This is not the only issue. It also causes a similar problem when somebody tries to calculate Tesla's market share in BEV sales in Europe. As you know, the Wiki here shows only Tesla sales in Europe but it doesn't show BEVs sold by other brands. However, ACEA does. Let's assume ACEA says 505,000 BEVs were sold in Europe in Q3 2023. Also, let's assume our wiki shows 93,700 Tesla sales in Europe in Q3 2023. With these two numbers, you can calculate Tesla's market share in BEVs. That would be 93,700/505,000= 18.55%. However, this calculation would be wrong too because 93,700 includes 8,100 sales in Turkey but the 505,000 number doesn't include Turkey. It causes too many problems.

ACEA is the main source for Europe passenger car sales numbers and Europe BEV sales numbers for all brands. Even Tesla uses them.

Thanks for the explanation. Turkey does straddle both Europe & Asia, so it's hard to pigeonhole, but trade routes from Berlin to Istanbul are all/largely European (possibility of an Asian-side port, but only by a few km).

As long as Turkey's huge Tesla sales are captured somewhere, it doesn't matter. I was keen to identify a less reported market & to answer your older posts asking for Turkey sales info (below).

Turkey is having a surge in car sales, even so Tesla was able to take 5.95% of Turkey's car sales (ODMD September 2023) - 4700 of 78,971. Another source combines cars with other vehicles to get "96,793 passenger cars and light commercial vehicles" Backed by EVs, Turkish auto sales soar to extend record streak

Also, if anyone is trying to calculate where Berlin production is going, knowing where 20%+ is going seems useful. I was going to mention imports/exports between ACEA countries & Turkey, but as sales are used, I don't think it's relevant.

Turkey has a population of around 85 million people, is around 13th largest vehicle manufacturer in the world (1.3 m in 2022, 1.7 in 2017). Togg cars could be coming to the rest of Europe (RoE). Charging Infrastructure seems to be rapidly improving. The government does not want to be a fuel importer. EV growth is very likely.

I'm assuming as Tesla are in Israel, Jordan (kind of), UAE, Turkey, Cyprus & Greece, that Egypt may be soon (population 109 million). Berlin would be the natural export hub for Egypt & North Africa (Morocco has Superchargers already).

My point is that a market like Thailand (population: 71m), Malaysia (33m), Indonesia (273m), Egypt (109m), Morocco (37m) or Turkey (85m) can really skew expectations/predictions unless it's included.

If there's a better place to put info, then it would be good to know. When searching the forum, posts on this thread came up asking for info on Turkey. In any case you and others now have a source for Tesla for Turkey sales which you've previously asked for (possibly before Tesla started publishing the chart you posted above).

In particular:-

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

@Troy @hobbes after some googling I found what I believe is a official French source for registration data. Seems to be a car manufacturers' alliance related to PSA and Renault, they publish tons of statistics each month for France and Europe as well. In fact they have statistics dedicated to...

teslamotorsclub.com

Wiki - Tesla Europe Registration Stats

I have just submitted total Tesla sales for Austria December 2019: 281

teslamotorsclub.com

Just for info, just look at Tesla vs Toyota & VW - astonishing, especially if you beliveve as I do that Turkey supply is restricted by Tesla due to Berlin production limitations, port IT system failures & Tesla's reported allocation of 10,000 cars for the whole of 2023.

Brand	Turkey made	Imported	Total
TESLA		4,700	4,700 (5.95%)
TOGG	2,204		2,204
TOYOTA	1,586	857	2,443
VOLKSWAGEN		4,857	4,857
VOLVO		924	924
TOPLAM: (total for all brands)	26,442	52,529	78,971

 

[DarkandStormy]

FYI - the math isn't mathing. Look at Germany as an example this month. Add up all the individual models (S3XY) and it's more than the total. The total matches to what was published. Just an FYI (or I'm reading it wrong, I don't know).

 

[Doggydogworld]

FYI - the math isn't mathing. Look at Germany as an example this month. Add up all the individual models (S3XY) and it's more than the total. The total matches to what was published. Just an FYI (or I'm reading it wrong, I don't know).

They seem to add up now. It's tricky because Germany is the first row in the overall table but the second row in the Model 3 table.

 

[DarkandStormy]

They seem to add up now. It's tricky because Germany is the first row in the overall table but the second row in the Model 3 table.

Looking at row labels would be helpful

 

[UkNorthampton]

Turkey October 2023 - 500 cars

Spoiler: October 2023 sales chart

Source:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720714090895618238

Turkey November 2023 - 900 cars

All Model Y from Germany. Looks like other European countries (Berlin Model Y) have had great sales, so Turkey may have had less available. Also recent import/IT problems may have led Tesla to restrict supply.

Togg at number 4 has over 4400 vs 900 of Tesla. Similar segment.

See text below image for new rules on imported cars (doesn't affect Berlin Model Y, as I understand). It might limit Chinese (especially) brands.

Source (translated, so could be errors) :- Elektrikli araçlarla ilgili önemli karar Resmi Gazete'de: Peki ne anlama geliyor, neler değişecek?

It is mandatory for new brands to establish their own TSE certified service and call center...

Challenging conditions, especially for Chinese brands...

Here are the new rules

In order to issue a Permit Certificate;
a) Certification by the Turkish Standards Institute (TSE) that at least 20 authorized service stations in 7 geographical regions have been established by the importer in accordance with TS 12047 and TSE K 646 standards for the after-sales assembly, maintenance and repair of the goods to be imported,
b) Purchasing and selling of electric vehicles , the persons who will be responsible for the maintenance and repair must have a qualification certificate issued by TSE or the Vocational Qualifications Authority exclusively for the purchase, sale, maintenance and repair of electric vehicles, c
) Turkish call center with at least 40 personnel established in Turkey for each brand to be imported.
d) The manufacturer of the goods to be imported must have an authorized representative resident in the country,
d) A written undertaking must be given by the importer stating that the procedures to be carried out regarding the monitoring, control and inspection of the battery systems must
be provided together.
Other legislation
ARTICLE 4 - (1) The permits granted within the scope of this Communiqué do not replace the permits and documents required to be obtained within the scope of other legislation and do not constitute an obstacle to the fulfillment of obligations arising from the relevant legislation.

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1728045020974850060

Troy said for a record Q4, November sales needed to be around 44k. They came in at 37k. Either the wave has been un-smoothed or no record is coming.

 

[aubreymcfato]

https://x.com/TroyTeslike/status/1728045020974850060

Troy said for a record Q4, November sales needed to be around 44k. They came in at 37k. Either the wave has been un-smoothed or no record is coming.

Mmmm...
We are currently at 54720 for Oct+Nov.
Q422 was 94819, which is the record. So we need ~41000 for December to get a new record. Very doable, given that this years we had a March with 62000 sales...

 

[DarkandStormy]

Mmmm...
We are currently at 54720 for Oct+Nov.
Q422 was 94819, which is the record. So we need ~41000 for December to get a new record. Very doable, given that this years we had a March with 62000 sales...

That was back when Tesla crammed the vast majority of their sales into the last month of the quarter.

Sales in August & September were virtually the same (~34k).

EDIT - what is going on with sales in Germany?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Sales in August & September were virtually the same (~34k).

September had very few Model 3 sales in Europe due to the Highland changeover. Model Y showed normal 2nd/3rd month growth, except for Germany which eliminated EV subsidies for "employee cars" at the end of August. Without those two effects sales would have been ~33k/~45k vs. 34k/34k.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Also, I think we are seeing a steep increase in France sales because of incentives running out on 31/12, so likely some thousands cars are being rerouted...

 

[DarkandStormy]

Mmmm...
We are currently at 54720 for Oct+Nov.
Q422 was 94819, which is the record. So we need ~41000 for December to get a new record. Very doable, given that this years we had a March with 62000 sales...

Also, I think we are seeing a steep increase in France sales because of incentives running out on 31/12, so likely some thousands cars are being rerouted...

France did indeed lead the way in Nov and Dec.

December is likely to come in just below 39k if the initial UK data (~4k) is correct.

There is monthly data available for some smaller countries - Ireland, Finland, etc. Not sure how specific @Troy wants to get with the "Other" row.

 

[aubreymcfato]

France did indeed lead the way in Nov and Dec.

December is likely to come in just below 39k if the initial UK data (~4k) is correct.

There is monthly data available for some smaller countries - Ireland, Finland, etc. Not sure how specific @Troy wants to get with the "Other" row.

Yep, disappointing December.
It would be nice to know if that late ship in Spain did in fact sell in Q4 or if we'll see them in Q1.
I have to say that Germany disappointed me the most.

 

[DarkandStormy]

There is monthly data available for some smaller countries - Ireland, Finland, etc. Not sure how specific @Troy wants to get with the "Other" row.

Fwiw, I'm seeing about 27,850 from "other European" countries not listed, with a few December stragglers, for FY2023. About a 2k delta from the "other" formula currently for the year.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Yep, disappointing December.
It would be nice to know if that late ship in Spain did in fact sell in Q4 or if we'll see them in Q1.
I have to say that Germany disappointed me the most.

Well, as I said at the end of last year, no record for Q4. 1Q24 disappoints as well, looks like ~85k once we get final #s.

Tesla quarterly sales in the EU seem to have stalled at 85k-95k/quarter.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Well, as I said at the end of last year, no record for Q4. 1Q24 disappoints as well, looks like ~85k once we get final #s.

Tesla quarterly sales in the EU seem to have stalled at 85k-95k/quarter.

I was expecting even lower for this Q1, ~85k is not that bad, like Q3 last year. And we probably saw some delayed cars in Q1... January was good in Spain and in general in all Europe, flattening the wave and all that.

I see very few M3 Highland right now, maybe things will change a little when they ramp up?

 

[DarkandStormy]

Examples of concerns but also delivery wave:

-there were 63,682 deliveries in Germany in 2023 for an average of 5,306 per month
-Tesla delivered 4,356 per month in 1Q24
-only 3,878 delivered in March 2024 compared to 8,793 in March 2023 and 6,038 in February 2024

 

[aubreymcfato]

Examples of concerns but also delivery wave:

-there were 63,682 deliveries in Germany in 2023 for an average of 5,306 per month
-Tesla delivered 4,356 per month in 1Q24
-only 3,878 delivered in March 2024 compared to 8,793 in March 2023 and 6,038 in February 2024

Germany is definetely concerning.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Germany is definitely concerning.

Nice thread about Germany sales from a knowledgeable who's been quite bearish in the last month:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776016910427005391