Ok. Analysis complete of the vins.
The simple answer is 4490-4492, and 4611, 4617 cannot be on Cap Capricorn, It should be a a good view to help align expectations, even with hidden vins changing. It is better to have any vin rather than being #model3vinless where to set your own internal expectation.
What is interesting is build dates, not in the data below.
. Cars are being built a little out of sequence depending on the variant - lines up with production runs, but only a day or two difference.
. Now invoices are being issued, and we know cars are being assigned final invoiced vins after arrival, it means every car invoiced so far has been on Cap Capricorn. This is a fact, and not speculative. What is interesting is the build date of July 11 in earlier post. Cap Capricorn loaded between July 12 and 13. That’s fast. I do want keep an eye on build dates. There might be some information to get from this.
I am still vinless, my internal expectation clock is sitting at September 30 11.59pm precisely - Elon wants deliveries before end of quarter. If early orders are speculated about 2500, and 500 are on each ship, there is enough time to complete all of the early orders depending on mix production runs. This gets complex though as orders change, and options/variants changed along the way.
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