There are a lot of trade-offs in that. For one it would be very very expensive. Secondly it would be very heavy unless you used a whole lot of exotic materials like carbon fiber to balance out the extremely heavy battery pack.
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Tesla readies revamped Model 3
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The roadster was going to have a 600 mile range as was the original plaid spec at launch. IIRC the Cyber was to be 500 mile range..
My S has 300 mile range which in reality means that if I've left it charged to 80% and want to keep a safety buffer of 20 % in case of roadworks/accidents and the unforeseen then in reality I have 180 mile range unless it's all been preplanned to 100% or worse only 90 mile away from home unless going via available chargers or guaranteed destination charging and enough time on the schedule to benefit. In the charging desert of wales, that is significant.
There is also the issue of occasional large gathering venues - take the upcoming Henley regatta as example: Imagine if all cars were electric...there'll be some 5/6/7000+ cars descending on the place - mostly parking in temporary meadows and local hotels all booked solid. OK so half+ will commute locally daily for the event but there'll be a huge number coming in from distances too great to do the return trip on a tankful. The queues at any supercharger within 50 miles will be huge, local hotels even if willing won't have enough destination charger power for all their residents and there's no way that the venue organisers could ever provide chargers in the meadows. I'll be taking my wife's ICE this year because I'm over 200 miles away and then driving in daily from a hotel 15 miles away. The grief I’d get from her if we had to queue for an hour or two for a charger and then charge for 45 mins to totally refill....
My S has 300 mile range which in reality means that if I've left it charged to 80% and want to keep a safety buffer of 20 % in case of roadworks/accidents and the unforeseen then in reality I have 180 mile range unless it's all been preplanned to 100% or worse only 90 mile away from home unless going via available chargers or guaranteed destination charging and enough time on the schedule to benefit. In the charging desert of wales, that is significant.
There is also the issue of occasional large gathering venues - take the upcoming Henley regatta as example: Imagine if all cars were electric...there'll be some 5/6/7000+ cars descending on the place - mostly parking in temporary meadows and local hotels all booked solid. OK so half+ will commute locally daily for the event but there'll be a huge number coming in from distances too great to do the return trip on a tankful. The queues at any supercharger within 50 miles will be huge, local hotels even if willing won't have enough destination charger power for all their residents and there's no way that the venue organisers could ever provide chargers in the meadows. I'll be taking my wife's ICE this year because I'm over 200 miles away and then driving in daily from a hotel 15 miles away. The grief I’d get from her if we had to queue for an hour or two for a charger and then charge for 45 mins to totally refill....
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
I'll actually agree here - you bring up two niche scenarios where electric (at anything short of really huge range numbers) is not great: Large concentrated gatherings, and offroad-away-from-civilization adventuring. While I acknowledge those, I dislike crowds and camping, so I'm good at 326 miles of range
ACarneiro
Active Member
Fair comment but if the whole electric fleet is going to be electrified over the coming decade or two the niche cases need to be catered for as well…I'll actually agree here - you bring up two niche scenarios where electric (at anything short of really huge range numbers) is not great: Large concentrated gatherings, and offroad-away-from-civilization adventuring. While I acknowledge those, I dislike crowds and camping, so I'm good at 326 miles of range
Wales is hardly off road and away from civilisation - just lots of tiny villages away from the (few) population centres. It's not even a big country - in your terms a bit smaller than New Jersey. But it does need a lot more scattered fast charges to avoid long detours - long in the sense of narrow roads at slow speeds away from one's primary direction to find power.I'll actually agree here - you bring up two niche scenarios where electric (at anything short of really huge range numbers) is not great: Large concentrated gatherings, and offroad-away-from-civilization adventuring. While I acknowledge those, I dislike crowds and camping, so I'm good at 326 miles of range
I don't like large gathering either but by definition they are popular - horse race meetings, pop concerts and the like with some communities depending on them.
And if it’s winter then range has dropped and you need more reserve in case of breakdowns or road closures.
Jason71
Well-Known Member
I don't disagree but that has not happened yet. And if I had a pound for every new battery tech that is about to disrupt the market and make all before it obsolete......
My point was in this aledged early phase of rapid change the M3 which launched in the UK 4 years ago and in the US over 5 years ago still holds its own and is not hopelessly outdated.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Would 4680 make a difference? (sorry, I don't know if it is lighter / more energy dense, or just small incremental improvement). Tesla seems to be shaping up for mass production in Texas ...
I think you need to recognise you are an outlier (and your current car is a lot less than 300 real-world miles)
I've mentioned before, but I went from 2015 MS with 240-ish miles range to MS Raven LR which is just shy of 300 miles (at 130 KPH on French autoroute - with no traffic/delays
). I've gone from supercharging 2 days a month to 2 or 3 days a year, and those are drive-charge-drive-charge length journeys rather than UK out-and-back.I get it for some other benefits - like towing, but I have my own proof, from experience before/after EV that stopping for 20 minutes every 2.5 hours makes a huge difference to occupant arrival state on a 12 hour door-to-door journey.
Bjorn's Raven LR test was 55 MPH 230 wH / mile - 400 miles (EPA = 387 miles) and at 120 kph (74 MPH) 314 wH/mile 294 miles (100kWh advertised, actual is around 97kWh)
That mirrors my own experience of just shy of 300 miles trogging along French autoroute
The Audi A8 (not coming until next year) is 120 kWh and quoted range of 466 miles ... no info yet as to how that translates to real-world. Presumably its gonna be heavy at 120kWh as I'm assuming that Audi don't have next-generation-batteries, any more than Tesla do
I think that was the Plaid Plus? ... and I suspect someone (Brave!) said to Elon "We are going to be in trouble if we promise that unless the New Batteries you speak of are actually "Real Soon Now"
Tesla put some mobile chargers at pinch-points in USA at holiday weekends. Maybe that will happen for "Regattas"?
Or some enterprising wag will have a battery swap bazaar stall
With new technology I wait until its in front of me before getting excited.
Here's another battery manufacturer claiming high density a year before CATL:
A new silicon battery design just beat Tesla's energy density
And it's already going to market.
interestingengineering.com
Tesla's Musk hints of battery capacity jump ahead of industry event
Tesla Inc <TSLA.O> CEO Elon Musk has suggested the U.S. electric carmaker may be able to mass produce batteries with 50% more energy density in three to four years, which could even enable electric airplanes.
www.reuters.com
I guess the important thing is that the strategy-setters at the automobile companies keep an open mind as to what these emerging technologies could bring to future models at lower price points, and not make polemic judgements in public that could cripple them in the future.
Hypothetically speaking of course, no one would actually do that….
Elon Musk: “Anyone relying on lidar is doomed.” Experts: Maybe not
"They're all going to dump lidar," Musk said about self-driving rivals in April.
arstechnica.com
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I thiink ultimately to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport.
I think Tesla/Musk has said so a few times.
ACarneiro
Active Member
And Google also had "Don't be Evil" on heir mission statement and yet here we are today...
Jason71
Well-Known Member
The thing about new tech, batteries especially, is that most of the breakthroughs you hear about are in the lab or low volume.With new technology I wait until its in front of me before getting excited.
Here's another battery manufacturer claiming high density a year before CATL:
Rumoured to be the same technology CATL and Tesla were working on in 2020:A new silicon battery design just beat Tesla's energy density
And it's already going to market.
Tesla's Musk hints of battery capacity jump ahead of industry event
Tesla Inc <TSLA.O> CEO Elon Musk has suggested the U.S. electric carmaker may be able to mass produce batteries with 50% more energy density in three to four years, which could even enable electric airplanes.
Even if the claims are true then they have to find a way to make them at scale. Look how much trouble Tesla is having with the 4680s and that is a relatively minor change.
Then when you do figure out how to make them at scale there will initially be one factory making them which means there is only enough for a very limited number of vehicles and they will be expensive since the first factory / line will be small and a huge investment will have gone into it and the economy of scale will not be there. So those new superduper batteries will go into some expensive low volume vehicles and then one of two things will happen either a) the next you will hear is that they have all caught fire/been recalled/broken down etc OR b) they will be a major success and the maker will start to expand and or licence the tech and unless it can be built on existing production lines, which is unlikely, it will slowly filter into the market replacing existing tech from the top down over the course of 5+ years.
So there really is no such thing as an overnight disruption to battery tech. Its (ironically) like an oil tanker at this point , massive and takes time change course.
Who needs marketing when there's people like you about.
I also agree that Wales is an away from civilisation adventureI'll actually agree here - you bring up two niche scenarios where electric (at anything short of really huge range numbers) is not great: Large concentrated gatherings, and offroad-away-from-civilization adventuring. While I acknowledge those, I dislike crowds and camping, so I'm good at 326 miles of range
That's creating a false dichotomy. Ultimately, achieving the most efficient design and manufacturing process allows electric vehicles into a much larger addressable Market. The cheapest and most effective argument the fossil fuel Legacy folks have been able to make is that electric vehicles are too expensive and are some kind of toy for rich people. Dropping costs and simplifying manufacturing has been a meme at Tesla for good reason. When project Highland finally comes out I believe you will see a dual motor model 3 somewhere under $40,000 without incentives. And a simplified and perhaps slightly smaller version of that in the model 2 with a Target price of $25,000. I don't think you can dismiss the importance of that consolidating trimming and simplifying production meme for truly advancing the cause of sustainable transportation.
All the talk about parking sensors and how that was going to really cripple the car in terms of low speed maneuvering turned out to be wrong. The new vision based system is pretty accurate and now gives essentially the same distance warning as the old ultrasonic sensors. This is just an example of how if you can tolerate a period in which Tesla is making the new technology work as well as the old technology you'll get the same functionality out for less money and cost.
And Sandy Munro has done more than raise his eyebrows about questionable design and Manufacturing processes. A raised eyebrows about all he's given Tesla but he's given a whole lot more to Ford and GM and some others.
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These are of course all the complaints the Legacy auto makers are advancing to try to hold on to their failing business model. All this assumes of course that you have tons of electric vehicles and no increase in charging capability. I don't know what the situation is in the UK but we have driven up and down the East Coast of the United States 10 times (roughly 1500 Mi trips each time) and we have never had to wait more than literally one to two minutes and that only happened twice in the last 5 years. So it's all a question of the state of the charging network.
I get there's people that are quite happy with a low range EV and don't want anything more. It works fine for me almost all of the time and why an EV works well in the family but we keep an ICE for the trips it doesn't. That's a large 7 seater SUV, lots of space and nice and comfortable but if it was electric the range would suck without an absolutely massive battery capacity.
As someone said, we almost always start with 80% and will be charging around 20% as you want some buffer incase stuck. So most of the time 40% of the battery we aren't using and that's on top of the car also reserving some capacity as well. I'd like to see future batteries resolve this so we can also get them to 100% without damaging them, kind of like the SR+ can do these days.
I'm not saying they'll up the battery in the Model 3 for Highland update, they'll increase range by increasing aero and maybe lowering weight a little bit. Basically efficiency improvements. I still think once cost drops enough and battery chemistry improves range will get better. The only reason people like Elon says that no one wants more than 300 miles range is because it would be expensive. If it was say £1 - 2k more to add enough extra capacity to get another 200 miles I think some would pay for it. Same reason some will pay a good few thousand more for a Performance model.
Apple said no one would want Apps on an iPhone until they came out with an Apple Store. Said no one would want Copy and Paste until they implemented. This is all marketing, you play down how important something is when you cannot yet offer it, doesn't mean you never will.
As someone said, we almost always start with 80% and will be charging around 20% as you want some buffer incase stuck. So most of the time 40% of the battery we aren't using and that's on top of the car also reserving some capacity as well. I'd like to see future batteries resolve this so we can also get them to 100% without damaging them, kind of like the SR+ can do these days.
I'm not saying they'll up the battery in the Model 3 for Highland update, they'll increase range by increasing aero and maybe lowering weight a little bit. Basically efficiency improvements. I still think once cost drops enough and battery chemistry improves range will get better. The only reason people like Elon says that no one wants more than 300 miles range is because it would be expensive. If it was say £1 - 2k more to add enough extra capacity to get another 200 miles I think some would pay for it. Same reason some will pay a good few thousand more for a Performance model.
Apple said no one would want Apps on an iPhone until they came out with an Apple Store. Said no one would want Copy and Paste until they implemented. This is all marketing, you play down how important something is when you cannot yet offer it, doesn't mean you never will.
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Your coastal highway or our motorway network are served well enough. But many trips only become possible by using extended dogleg routes instead of a direct secondary road option.
Again we already have issues during public holidays on many routes due to insufficient charger numbers. With EVs only a small percentage of traffic ATM we'd need to see charger sites with 150 superchargers rather than 24 (or 6x as many sites) .
Of course it can be done but for a couple of dozen public holiday days I doubt it'll happen...
You're also going to need some sort of fleet of slower chargers per truck...perhaps 30 and a diesel Genny per truck..that can be sent to major venues. 50 or a 100 such to cater for destination charging with all the support people....
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