Tesla readies revamped Model 3

[ZenRockGarden]

I'm rooting for the revised Highlander M3 to bring just 2 things to the table:

1. Rear hatch instead of trunk opening.
2. Lower cost

GM just abandoned the Bolt based affordable territory - it's open for Tesla to grab it with a ~$30k M3SR in the 250 mile region using LFP Go go go!

 

[White Shadow]

This will also allow us to go back to square shaped SUV boxes with high right height and not care because the range will be enough.

Rivian.....that's exactly why I'm so interested in an R1S. I like somewhat boxy SUVs with good ground clearances.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Rivian.....that's exactly why I'm so interested in an R1S. I like somewhat boxy SUVs with good ground clearances.

Yeah the R1S looks good. Over time will get more of these types hopefully and with bigger batteries for more range, longer towing.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Yeah the R1S looks good. Over time will get more of these types hopefully and with bigger batteries for more range, longer towing.

Towing is always going to be hard for EV's. Takes a ton more power, which in turn requires a bigger battery, which adds weight, which reduces towing capacity. Better battery tech will gradually ease that pain, but it's never going away. We've been spoiled by super-inefficient petrol tech that has one strong suit: High energy density per pound so the inefficiency and/or greater need for towing doesn't matter as much.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Towing is always going to be hard for EV's. Takes a ton more power, which in turn requires a bigger battery, which adds weight, which reduces towing capacity. Better battery tech will gradually ease that pain, but it's never going away. We've been spoiled by super-inefficient petrol tech that has one strong suit: High energy density per pound so the inefficiency and/or greater need for towing doesn't matter as much.

Don’t think it will always be hard, battery tech will get there but it’s just early days and has a long way to go still. The batteries we have right now aren’t all that great compared to the big jumps that will come. Yes takes a while but it will happen.

 

[MrBadger]

Don’t think it will always be hard, battery tech will get there but it’s just early days and has a long way to go still. The batteries we have right now aren’t all that great compared to the big jumps that will come. Yes takes a while but it will happen.

People have been saying that for ages. All small incremental steps so far no matter what was promised as being just around the corner. I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

[LiamPope]

People have been saying that for ages. All small incremental steps so far no matter what was promised as being just around the corner. I’ll believe it when I see it.

I don't buy this idea we will get massive leaps because we are supposedly at the start of development. Battery tech has been in development over 100 years. There are no low hanging fruit. Expect slow and difficult progress on par with ICE efficiency gains.

 

[FastLaneJB]

People have been saying that for ages. All small incremental steps so far no matter what was promised as being just around the corner. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Yes lots of scientific breakthroughs that don’t make it to production. I’m well aware. I do view the CATL announcement in a different light though considering they are number 1 in this space and are saying mass production this year. It’ll be expensive also I expect but it’ll drop.

At some point they’ll get to the point that they’ll have more than enough range, charge speed and cycles but still a good amount of room for improvement still.

 

[FastLaneJB]

I don't buy this idea we will get massive leaps because we are supposedly at the start of development. Battery tech has been in development over 100 years. There are no low hanging fruit. Expect slow and difficult progress on par with ICE efficiency gains.

Cannot say they haven't been developing for 100 years but there were little to no improvements in batteries over most of that time line. Also little investment in improving them as there was no major commercial reason to do so. It's only really started to accelerate when it became clear we needed batteries for cars, storage solutions, etc.

Just Google this and look at the curve growth on this, it is accelerating quickly.

 

[Avendit]

I don't buy this idea we will get massive leaps because we are supposedly at the start of development. Battery tech has been in development over 100 years. There are no low hanging fruit. Expect slow and difficult progress on par with ICE efficiency gains.

LR has added 20% range in the last 3 years. Not really down to battery tech, but pretty massive leap in range. I assume another leap from Highland, if only from simplification and weight saving. I can't think of any other transport related tech that got 20% better in 3 years?

It may not be more battery, but it is more capability for whatever you might want to use it for.

Do look back at battery day, there were multiple mind blowing steps in there. They don't appear to have maxed the power gains yet, but the dry electrodes tech is stunning in terms of reducing manufacturing and therefore costs, and that's here in limited volume. Coming to Berlin soonish I believe.

That said, my assumption is that Highland is about retrofitting learnings from Y to the 3. Mega casting and a little design tweak on top. Make a better, stiffer, hopefully cheaper car. Will it be a must replace my old one moment? Only if they being a hatchback, which I'm not expecting. (Otherwise more of the back of the mules would have been covered)

 

[Bouba]

The thing about new tech, batteries especially, is that most of the breakthroughs you hear about are in the lab or low volume.
Even if the claims are true then they have to find a way to make them at scale. Look how much trouble Tesla is having with the 4680s and that is a relatively minor change.
Then when you do figure out how to make them at scale there will initially be one factory making them which means there is only enough for a very limited number of vehicles and they will be expensive since the first factory / line will be small and a huge investment will have gone into it and the economy of scale will not be there. So those new superduper batteries will go into some expensive low volume vehicles and then one of two things will happen either a) the next you will hear is that they have all caught fire/been recalled/broken down etc OR b) they will be a major success and the maker will start to expand and or licence the tech and unless it can be built on existing production lines, which is unlikely, it will slowly filter into the market replacing existing tech from the top down over the course of 5+ years.
So there really is no such thing as an overnight disruption to battery tech. Its (ironically) like an oil tanker at this point , massive and takes time change course.

I have been banging my head against a brick wall trying to explain that on the boat forum, who’s members think that an ev has no second hand value because ‘new technology’ will make them instantly redundant

 

[FastLaneJB]

I have been banging my head against a brick wall trying to explain that on the boat forum, who’s members think that an ev has no second hand value because ‘new technology’ will make them instantly redundant

Not no second hand value obviously but they could reasonably drop. Of course this is my opinion, none of us know.

Depends how old the second hand car is vs new ones but say a new Model 3 in 2030 has twice the range, charges in half the time and costs say 25% less than now ignoring inflation. A 2023 model car just isn't going to be that desirable even if it has hardly any mileage on it.

It'll slow down over time but we've not had electric cars for long but also outside of the power train the tech overall is accelerating hugely. Self driving tech, infotainment and so on all moving forwards far quicker than it was 20 - 30 years ago. Again if you look at modern computers or smartphones they got good enough that you don’t need to replace as often but not sure EV’s are there yet. We are driving around in an iPhone 3 - 4 at the moment, lots of improvements to come

 

[Jason71]

I have been banging my head against a brick wall trying to explain that on the boat forum, who’s members think that an ev has no second hand value because ‘new technology’ will make them instantly redundant

When smart phones came out. the difference between a 2012 phone and a 2015 phone was so great that it made three year old phone essentially worthless. The pace of change in the automotive space can never be that rapid so over the course of the typical 3-4 year period people own a car the value is unlikely to collapse that much due to new tech. I know the values have dipped significantly recently but that is due to supply issues meaning they were over valued before. So what we have seen this year is a correction and nothing to do with the technology.
If anything threatens values it will be an influx of Cheap Chinese cars with tech that is little different from what we already have but a lower cost base.

 

[FastLaneJB]

When smart phones came out. the difference between a 2012 phone and a 2015 phone was so great that it made three year old phone essentially worthless. The pace of change in the automotive space can never be that rapid so over the course of the typical 3-4 year period people own a car the value is unlikely to collapse that much due to new tech. I know the values have dipped significantly recently but that is due to supply issues meaning they were over valued before. So what we have seen this year is a correction and nothing to do with the technology.
If anything threatens values it will be an influx of Cheap Chinese cars with tech that is little different from what we already have but a lower cost base.

Batteries are still going to get cheaper and not too long until we hit an EV being cheaper than an ICE. It'll stabilise at some point but not there yet so long term residuals won't be great I think for a bit.

 

[Jason71]

Batteries are still going to get cheaper and not too long until we hit an EV being cheaper than an ICE. It'll stabilise at some point but not there yet so long term residuals won't be great I think for a bit.

The counter argument is that currently the number of new vehicles sales that are electric is about16%.
The number of used vehicles on sale that are electric is less than 5%. and by definition in 3 years the number of used 3 year old electric cars available will be about 16%. Which suggests that at some point if the masses warm to electric cars there will be a lack of supply in the used market which should help residuals. It is of course a zero sum game so this will come at the expense of used ICE cars if it happens.

 

[White Shadow]

I don't buy this idea we will get massive leaps because we are supposedly at the start of development. Battery tech has been in development over 100 years. There are no low hanging fruit. Expect slow and difficult progress on par with ICE efficiency gains.

Not really....at least when it comes to batteries for EVs. I work in a related industry and I can tell you that we have seen an intense increase in the number of battery development companies that have emerged because of the recent shift due to electric vehicles. There are also a bunch of companies focusing primarily on solid state battery technology. We have several of our customers working on that and just a few years ago there were none at all.

I think battery technology is going to leap forward within the next 10 years.

 

[FastLaneJB]

The counter argument is that currently the number of new vehicles sales that are electric is about16%.
The number of used vehicles on sale that are electric is less than 5%. and by definition in 3 years the number of used 3 year old electric cars available will be about 16%. Which suggests that at some point if the masses warm to electric cars there will be a lack of supply in the used market which should help residuals. It is of course a zero sum game so this will come at the expense of used ICE cars if it happens.

When Tesla dropped the prices of their cars, what happened to the residual values? When batteries get cheaper which they will and they drop prices again, it'll knock down residual values.

Supply and Demand is a factor of course. When new cars were hard to get prices of used became more than new cars for a while. But if Tesla keeps short or even no real delivery delay on their cars then used will have to have a fair price below new to shift.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Not really....at least when it comes to batteries for EVs. I work in a related industry and I can tell you that we have seen an intense increase in the number of battery development companies that have emerged because of the recent shift due to electric vehicles. There are also a bunch of companies focusing primarily on solid state battery technology. We have several of our customers working on that and just a few years ago there were none at all.

I think battery technology is going to leap forward within the next 10 years.

Exactly this.

In ~10 years time people will be chuckling at people taking almost an hour to put 200 miles into an old EV as they top up 500 miles in 10 minutes. That's also going to badly impact the value of that old EV as it's just not going to be all that desirable.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Exactly this.

In ~10 years time people will be chuckling at people taking almost an hour to put 200 miles into an old EV as they top up 500 miles in 10 minutes. That's also going to badly impact the value of that old EV as it's just not going to be all that desirable.

Given that most people will still be charging their car overnight when rates are cheap, I doubt there will be as much of a flex about 1000 KW charging rates as you imagine.

 

[Drew57]

Given that most people will still be charging their car overnight when rates are cheap, I doubt there will be as much of a flex about 1000 KW charging rates as you imagine.

Strange reply. When I was last in Santa Barbara (9 days ago) I didn't notice all the Blackberry & Nokia phones everyone must have been using. Nor in Idaho where I am at the moment.