Tesla readies revamped Model 3

[ZenRockGarden]

Strange reply. When I was last in Santa Barbara (9 days ago) I didn't notice all the Blackberry & Nokia phones everyone must have been using. Nor in Idaho where I am at the moment.

But you might have noticed that the youngsters actually use and enjoy Polaroid cameras because despite all the smartphones it's still perfectly functional and nice to have a device that spits out a hard copy, live in the hand.

 

[qwickshot]

I think we are all getting a bit excited about the prospect of new toys which in reality will probably end up being incremental updates rather than step changes.

I can’t see chargers going past 350 kw any time soon. There simply isn’t the capacity, we can’t cope with 350kw chargers now without major reinforcement.

Likewise there is limited relationship between the BOM (bill of materials) cost and prices. Car manufacturers will (as they have always done) sell cars for as much as people are willing to pay for them. That’s a really long winded way of saying cheaper batteries doesn’t mean cars will be cheaper to buy.

Batteries have actually got more expensive in recent years and are not set to start getting cheaper again for some time because of supply chain pressures and their need to ramp up the supply of raw materials.

BYD blade batteries were meant to be a step change, I’m sure they have potential but what we have seen so far has just been more of the same in terms of their performance in a car.

We are probably not going to see step changes in battery technology, it’s all well and good announcing breakthrough because you have built one in a lab. The reality is you have to actually build them by the million for a sensible price. What we have seen and what we will continue to see is incremental change over the course of 5-10 years.

Then there is the point that a 10 year old car will not be worth much anyway. The sort of person looking to buy a 10 year old car which has depreciated by 80-90% typically is not someone who is wanting to drop a wedge on a new one.

 

[Jason71]

I think we are all getting a bit excited about the prospect of new toys which in reality will probably end up being incremental updates rather than step changes.

I can’t see chargers going past 350 kw any time soon. There simply isn’t the capacity, we can’t cope with 350kw chargers now without major reinforcement.

Likewise there is limited relationship between the BOM (bill of materials) cost and prices. Car manufacturers will (as they have always done) sell cars for as much as people are willing to pay for them. That’s a really long winded way of saying cheaper batteries doesn’t mean cars will be cheaper to buy.

Batteries have actually got more expensive in recent years and are not set to start getting cheaper again for some time because of supply chain pressures and their need to ramp up the supply of raw materials.

I agree manufactures will keep prices as high as possible but regarding battery costs have you seen lithium prices recently? . They have nosdived. Costs may come down sooner than you think

 

[FastLaneJB]

I agree manufactures will keep prices as high as possible but regarding battery costs have you seen lithium prices recently? . They have nosdived. Costs may come down sooner than you think

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And despite the increase prices had just more flatlined. They’ll start to drop again soon. A lot of newer battery chemistries are trying to move away from rare earth materials also.

Of course if they can get away with higher margins they will but the EV market is getting quite competitive, that will push them to drop prices across all makes to stay in the game.

 

[Bouba]

My (near) future predictions…extremely fast chargers will go first to truck stops where they will be needed most urgently …battery production will struggle to keep up with demand (especially as more and more big electric trucks come on line) so battery manufacturers won’t feel the economic imperative to retool for the latest technology at vast expense

 

[ACarneiro]

My (near) future predictions…extremely fast chargers will go first to truck stops where they will be needed most urgently …battery production will struggle to keep up with demand (especially as more and more big electric trucks come on line) so battery manufacturers won’t feel the economic imperative to retool for the latest technology at vast expense

... unless an upstart comes with a new battery tech, forcing the legacy guys to retool or be left in the dust.
In a nutshell, so many things could happen it's impossible to make predictions farther out than, say, 2 or 3 years. And even then...

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Exactly this.

In ~10 years time people will be chuckling at people taking almost an hour to put 200 miles into an old EV as they top up 500 miles in 10 minutes. That's also going to badly impact the value of that old EV as it's just not going to be all that desirable.

Im going to keep my 2019 model3 till it dies. In ten years it will have done so many miles it will owe me nothing. My CT will be my trip car.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

There’s a tiny bit of me that thinks Petrol is Vinyl records, Battery is CD, Hydrogen is Mini Disc, and we know who won… none of them really. Something completely different came along.

I can’t believe there will be anything about a new M3 which will be better than a MS, so that rules out much longer range however achieved, the tech at most will be the same so HW4 (ie without extra cameras, those inputs I recon are for the cybertruck or maybe just the semi). I’m doubtful of the small dash screen, the lack of a binnacle is the least controversial of all the Tesla things. So I suspect any updates will be pretty mild, front end make over with a few styling clues from the MS, some light touch changes to the interior maybe ther yoke, but the suspension and stuff like that will be unchanged, and that will be it.

 

[FastLaneJB]

My (near) future predictions…extremely fast chargers will go first to truck stops where they will be needed most urgently …battery production will struggle to keep up with demand (especially as more and more big electric trucks come on line) so battery manufacturers won’t feel the economic imperative to retool for the latest technology at vast expense

They probably don't have to retool old plants as there's still a market for those batteries, they will just build new plants for the most part. It's not much different to semiconductors and newer plants for newer processes.

As you said they'll struggle to keep up with demand so need to keep making new plants at the moment.

 

[The_Cable_Guy]

im still of the opnion of E fuels will take over or some other synthetic pertrol/deisel equivilant.

forecourts and infrastructure is there, its the most green as all old tech/cars can go on for another 50 years.

 

[Avendit]

im still of the opnion of E fuels will take over or some other synthetic pertrol/deisel equivilant.

forecourts and infrastructure is there, its the most green as all old tech/cars can go on for another 50 years.

Strong disagree, sorry. They might, but they shouldn't. Take everything that is wrong with massive monoculture arable farming, X it 1000 and you have efuels. It's not really sustainable any more than digging stuff out of the ground and burning it. It fixes the carbon problem to some extent, but it creates as many problems as it solves. Not worth it just because we like petrol stations.

 

[Zilla91]

What people forget is that in developing nations they have no infrastructure to support EVs (I mean we're a G7 nation and we're struggling) so they'll be using ICE for the foreseeable future. If E fuels is a cleaner alternative for them to use then that's good news.

I think a lot of people need to get their heads out of the sand and accept that EV adoption will not be widespread for a while yet.

 

[qwickshot]

Given many developing nations suffer from drought and famine already, I doubt they will be turning over what productive are land they do have away from food to producing synthetic fuel.

I don’t think people have their heads in the sand, even in the U.K. it’s going to be 2045-2050 before EVs penetrate right though car ownership demographics.

 

[Zilla91]

I doubt they will be turning over what productive are land they do have away from food to producing synthetic fuel.

Depends on how much money they can make from doing just that and then use that money to import food instead.

 

[qwickshot]

Depends on how much money they can make from doing just that and then use that money to import food instead.

Probably nothing because the west has moved to BEVs and doesn’t need significant quantiles of synthetic fuel…

 

[Zilla91]

Probably nothing because the west has moved to BEVs and doesn’t need significant quantiles of synthetic fuel…

Maybe for consumer vehicles but construction, agriculture and haulage will continue to use ICE as they are tried, tested and do the job without needing to stop and recharge every few hours for hours at a time.

 

[Jwdrums]

Maybe for consumer vehicles but construction, agriculture and haulage will continue to use ICE as they are tried, tested and do the job without needing to stop and recharge every few hours for hours at a time.

This is a slight misrepresentation I would say, big construction companies are working hard on switching to battery powered solutions, especially ones tendering for government contracts.

 

[Avendit]

This is a slight misrepresentation I would say, big construction companies are working hard on switching to battery powered solutions, especially ones tendering for government contracts.

Im also watching hydrogen/amonia for the really big industrial usage/transport. But batteries may leapfrog that yet.

 

[qwickshot]

We are all off topic at this point but the fundamental issues that synthetic fuels need to solve is how they grow the crops needed along side existing food requirements without cutting down what little natural habitat is left on the planet and the cost of it compared to oil.

 

[Adopado]

Depends on how much money they can make from doing just that and then use that money to import food instead.

If that happens it will be madness!