RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
Wouldn't be expecting 4680 LFP cells, just pouch cells likely out of China. I like the robustnous of LFP cell chemistry.
Rich
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Tesla sales rep said MY with 4680 will NOT have longer range
- Thread starter funkychalupa
- Start date
Rich
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
Correct. But you were asking for 350 miles range, and LFP pouch cells are going to get you much less than even the existing MYLR 330 miles
RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
OK, permit me to clarify my statement; I would not expect LR out of an LFP battery powered MY. My concern is that even if the newer MYs coming out had 4680 cells it would appear that the range of these machines would be "dumbed down" to that of current LR MY Teslas. Thus I would give up the additional range of the (projected) Tesla MY using 4680 cells over a LFP powered MY for the added benefit of increased longevity.
I have found that my LFP M3 Tesla holds no disadvantage (for my use) over NMC chemistry battery cells.
Rich
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
MY's with 4680 already exist in the form of the MYAWD, and they got a range of 283 miles (already less than MYLR). There is no such thing as dumbing-down 4680 to the range of MYLR - it's already far below it.
LFP MY's are not shipping in the US, but I believe were rated at like 270 miles of range on the EPA cycle (they rate higher on the Euro WLTP, but it's notoriously generous on estimates)
we will only know......when they want us to know.
the Master Class of Internet Marketing run by Tesla has never leaked without purpose.
RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
You are simply playing with words. The 4680s were supposed to give us a substantial increase in range over the current batteries in use. Thus my term "dumbing-down" their range to below that of the MY LR.
I am aware LFP MY's are not shipping to the US. I will be in the market for a new MY in November of 2023 and was wondering out loud whether such an option would be available for purchase by then.
Tag, your "it."
Rich
Yes, but all of the advances to get there aren't supposed to be completed until in 2026. So four more years...
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
Every word I gave was simply a statement of reality. Tesla has shipped the MY 4680 structural pack - it was a full size pack as proven by extensive tear-downs, and it delivered 283 miles of EPA range despite the original promises that 4680 would bring greater density those theoretical gains were not found in the actual implementation. Tesla may refine the pack - they're bringing 4680 production in-house because they were not happy with their partner's performance.
But the cold hard truth is there IS no 4680 pack that's larger than the existing one in the MYLR, so there is nothing to dumb-down. In fact they have yet to get the 4680 UP to MYLR levels which is why they had to ship it under the MYAWD name.
We would all love to see Elon deliver on his years-ago battery-day powerpoint presentation of greater-density/less-weight/longer-range the FACT is none of those happened and the near term hope is they eventually get 4680 up to existing MYLR range so the manufacturing and cost savings can go mainstream.
Of course they don't have all of those theoretical gains yet. Tesla said that wouldn't happen for another ~4 years. (What they presented on battery day wasn't a big-bang change. Each improvement has its own development process and timeline.)
this is what happens when 'Battery Day' presentations, internet hype, and pronouncements by Elon, et al, are taken too literally and/or added to wishful thinking.
the 4680 program is a work in progress.
currently 4680 is roughly equivalent to the energy density available from 2170 batteries, but is projected to improve.
that improvement won't happen until first, they get the production process better refined. the dry electrolyte causes issues in production.
second, the cathode chemistry is being worked on. that gets a serious improvement in energy density.
finally, anode composition improvements will need to come. that will get better longevity and charging efficiency (speed).
don't hold your breath for any of this. if you have a MY on order, take it when it's available. it's a well made vehicle and well worth the fare.
don't wait for 'software limited range improvement'. Tesla isn't doing that on the MY, and the Munroe battery pack teardown proves it.
the current 4680 battery density provides range that is honest as delivered...just not available yet to the public (MY-AWD).
when Tesla gets around to delivering MY with structural battery packs with Front + Rear megacasts, that product will be exceptional by any measure. Regardless of what battery is in the pack.
Further, it's likely that increased range won't be offered until model year 2024 at best. There's no competition and demand exceeds supply.
CT and SEMI are going to consume vast quantities of 4680 batteries. Might not be enough for MY unless MY MSRP is raised big time.
Not all his battery day promises have failed…I think that LFP could be the million mile battery
RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
I'm dubious about this being a "full size pack." Musk stated these batteries would give us an additional +15% range:
"The larger 4680 battery cell brings a 16% increase in range over the 2170 cell, though Tesla believes that improvements in battery materials and vehicle design could result in a 56% increase in range."
So, how a MY using 4680 batteries which has substantially less range than with the 2170. Which is, to my way of thinking, dumbing-down the battery pack. As "dumbing-down" is neither a copyrighted term nor a term of art I shall stand by my definition of the current iteration of the 4680 batterty MY floating around.
In any case, if we play our cards right we can keep this pointless internet debate going well into 2023.
Rich
You still aren't getting it. That quote is for after they have implemented all of the planned improvements. Which currently is not planned to be completed for another 4 years. They just aren't to that point yet.
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
We were hoping things like this too, alas we have to embrace reallity.
Sandy Munro took apart the pack. It has all the cells, there's not room for more, the individual cells were tested... there's nothing more to be had in that pack right now. It holds less electricity than the similar 2170 pack. It also doesn't weigh a lot less overall in it's current form.
Battery day promises were GOALS which have not yet been met. Period. The End.
Munro pretty much answered this:
There are fewer cells than would be necessary to be comparable to a LR. (And they think there is room to add them.)
Again, "Battery Day" was a presentation of possibilities, not current reality.
4680 may eventually achieve those goals, but does not today. Further developments are required.
I agree with you. Tesla dumbed down the battery design enough to meet Tesla's current ability to produce batteries. That has produced a battery that is not quite as capable as the current 2170 cell by volume. I think Musk even said as much, with parity intended to come later and surpassing 2170 as much as 2 years from now.
The main goal has been scale, and if they are really sustaining a production rate of 1k packs per week now from Kato Rd, they aren't doing too bad on that front.
RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
Which is why I commented in my original post that started this mini-brouhaha that when I am ready to replace our leased MY LR, if (big "if") there is an LFP version of the MY being offered at that time would it be more prudent of us to order the LFP version or stick with the LR version.
For the record we have found our LFP M3 SR to be a very practical travel vehicle. We've had the M3 since end of August and have had only a single +700 mile round-trip completed in that car but found it to be most suitable for distance travel (no, not as good as the MY, if for no other reason than it does not carry as much "stuff"). One leg of our return trip was over 200 miles (Wickenburg AZ to Green Valley AZ. None the less, I would not hesitate to take the LFP M3 on a trip from the west coast to the east coast.
Rich
RichAZ/CapeCod
Member
This should help with questions regarding the 4680 batteries. A new video from Munroe on them. At 11:00 (or thereabouts) there was a response to the question as to why there wasn't more range seen in the MY 4680 vehicle:
It weighs the same now. It has less range. Case closed.
They can add another row, or double the amount of batteries or whatever, but for the weight -- which is a crucial part of understanding energy density -- the 4680’s are just not as good.
This means sure they may be able to do an MYLR with 4680 now, but its not going to be as good, as it will be notably heavier.
And there are growing signs Tesla is thinking the 4680s may never be better than current small batteries. Probably heat management issues... at Earning call, lot of obfuscation, and seeming to be saying will use them in fewer vehicles. Nixed them for the semi, dodged on on the CT, and used weasel words hen describing production volume.
They have sold a LOT of MYLR. If they could ease some of that backlog with 4680s, they would. The battery’s lack of performance is the only thing holding that back.
I don’t care what Elon said on battery day. It had little basis in fact and a lot in spin, hype and hope.
There is some chance they’ll figure it out in a few years. But not this year and not next year.
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