Tesla Semi

[Menifeer]

Building the trucks will likely be the easy part. The recharging infrastructure could be a more daunting issue.

Existing truck stops may not be enthused at the prospect of providing space for recharging if they don't get a piece of the action (to compensate for loss of diesel profits). Since a low cost per KWH has been promised, there can't be much left to share. It will be interesting to learn how this item is addressed.

 

[Off Shore]

Building the trucks will likely be the easy part. The recharging infrastructure could be a more daunting issue.

Existing truck stops may not be enthused at the prospect of providing space for recharging if they don't get a piece of the action (to compensate for loss of diesel profits). Since a low cost per KWH has been promised, there can't be much left to share. It will be interesting to learn how this item is addressed.

There pretty much are no diesel profits. All their money is made on drivers buying other stuff. Chargers = more drivers.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

UPS orders 125 Tesla Semi and..

"UPS said it consulted with Tesla as the automaker was designing the truck."

Tesla Snags Largest Truck Order Yet, UPS Wants 125 Electric Semis

Tesla Semi FAQ: All the Facts

 

[GoTslaGo]

https://www.trucks.com/2017/12/18/driver-turnover-trucking-firms-jumps/

Read the comments. Interesting perspective.

 

[dc_h]

https://www.trucks.com/2017/12/18/driver-turnover-trucking-firms-jumps/

Read the comments. Interesting perspective.

This is a big deal and beyond fuel savings, a big part of the interest in the Tesla semi. There is a huge shortage of drivers and the industry is working hard on this.
Be interesting to start a thread on autonomy winners and losers. Amazon is the leader in autonomous logistics with UPS next and FedEx way back in the rear view mirror (or the rear facing camera). Most shippers and supply chain clients are anxious for the cost savings and opportunity to improve their employee control. Platooning could reduce long distance driver demand by 50%, but the change will take more than a decade. A few thousand Tesla semi trucks are not going to change the tide quickly.

Will older trucks be retrofitted or will autonomy require new vehicles? Any stocks to run to or from now? How long will autonomy take to impact employment and productivity?

 

[jerry33]

Will older trucks be retrofitted?

I doubt this will happen. It's similar to replacing the hard drives in a three to five year old server. It can be done, but the hardware is still old and has none of the other advances. It ends up being better just to purchase new.

 

[mongo]

Will older trucks be retrofitted or will autonomy require new vehicles?

Retrofit could be done, but might not be worth it.

Steering, brake, throttle, and transmission all need to be adapted to allow computer control. Cameras would need mounted. Vehicle status should be available on the internal network, so that part is less complex.
Once integrated, the system would need some level of tuning to match the dynamics of the particular vehicle. The conversion would make the most sense on a tractor where the systems are already by-wire and there is a large number of the same type to share the development costs.
The original DARPA Grand Challenge vehicles had many retrofit setups.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Just imagining how a clutch pumping transmission would adapt to an electric command to stop. How many rigs are fully automatic transmissions?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Semi Volume Production

 

[Curt Renz]

USA Today - this morning: Trucking firms offer up to $8,000 for drivers to ease shortage

There's no mention in the article of the upcoming autonomous trucks. That'll be the end for most drivers, yet a boon to the trucking companies and of course Tesla.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I keep reading that professional truckers need years of experience to be competent, and freshly trained -just got their learners permit - drivers are to be shunned. Zack and Jess of "now you know" want to get licensed to drive their Tesla Semi and are taking loads of grief for not being sufficiently professional.
What is going on here? Is it just that plebes are not yet initiated into the fraternity of Truckers. Is it that Pros get the best paying routes and rookies are grabbing some of the paydays?
I dont know didley about the trucking profession- so this driver flux is confusing to me.

 

[Menifeer]

Driverless trucks will be a tempting target for hackers. Figuring out how to make them run off the road or into something will be a challenge, but I believe the hackers will be up to it.

 

[mongo]

Driverless trucks will be a tempting target for hackers. Figuring out how to make them run off the road or into something will be a challenge, but I believe the hackers will be up to it.

Easy to box them in with 3-4 vehicles, or a simple barricade. At which point they alert dispatch.

 

[Reciprocity]

Building the trucks will likely be the easy part. The recharging infrastructure could be a more daunting issue.

Existing truck stops may not be enthused at the prospect of providing space for recharging if they don't get a piece of the action (to compensate for loss of diesel profits). Since a low cost per KWH has been promised, there can't be much left to share. It will be interesting to learn how this item is addressed.

So much wrong here.. where to start.

The nice thing about electric charging infrastructure is that electricity is already everywhere. Granted, the Semi needs a very large amount of electricity at each location.

In general the gas station or truck stop does not make money from the fuel itself, there is very little markup. In theory, Tesla could put in a huge solar array and battery packs and power the entire truck stop in exchange for premium placement at the truck stop.

A partnership could work or Tesla could build their own stations with amenities that are also profitable.

 

[Menifeer]

So much wrong here.. where to start.

The nice thing about electric charging infrastructure is that electricity is already everywhere. Granted, the Semi needs a very large amount of electricity at each location.

In general the gas station or truck stop does not make money from the fuel itself, there is very little markup. In theory, Tesla could put in a huge solar array and battery packs and power the entire truck stop in exchange for premium placement at the truck stop.

A partnership could work or Tesla could build their own stations with amenities that are also profitable.

There's a price tag associated with everything you mention. Where's the money to come from, considering the need for funds to expand Service Centers, expand Superchargers, build/acquire/equip the MY factory and build/acquire/equip a Semi-factory?

Using solar panels puts the solar business to work, but provides little or no return on the costs associated with building that equipment (particularly considering the $0.07/KWH promised).

The Megachargers will have to be in place before the semis hit the road. That's a lot of infrastructure to establish in a matter of a couple years.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

The truck market are moving chess pieces around, a future Volvo BEV truck?

"Geely’s expertise in the Chinese market and skills in developing electric and autonomous vehicles should help the truckmaker to expand, although there were no plans to reunite with Volvo Cars, which was split from AB Volvo in 1999.

AB Volvo owns 45 percent of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, one of China’s largest truckmakers, and also has a significant construction equipment business in China."

China's Geely turns to Volvo trucks in latest Swedish venture

 

[dc_h]

There's a price tag associated with everything you mention. Where's the money to come from, considering the need for funds to expand Service Centers, expand Superchargers, build/acquire/equip the MY factory and build/acquire/equip a Semi-factory?

Using solar panels puts the solar business to work, but provides little or no return on the costs associated with building that equipment (particularly considering the $0.07/KWH promised).

The Megachargers will have to be in place before the semis hit the road. That's a lot of infrastructure to establish in a matter of a couple years.

They don't have to build a national charging infrastructure in year 1. They can focus on targeted routes and building charging systems at home bases (warehouse and distribution centers). They don't need a mega-charger from Sparks to Fremont, but they need them at each site. UPS and other large clients are also probably going to need warehouse megachargers, but not interstate chargers. After those initial big client sales, they will need to start ramping up an interstate solution. This can be targeted by specific routes, depending on where initial sales are most robust. For the Model S they could focus on key routes, but also had to build the basic global charging infrastructure. For the truck market Tesla can be much more targeted in their spending. I don't think they'll need to fund any interstate charging for the 1st 18 months. The 7 cent charge will be likely be funded by a solar installation and leaseback to minimize\eliminate any upfront capex costs.

2019 -- First few or few hundred semi's are delivered. Probably no shipment to anyone with fewer than 10 initial deliveries, so the megacharger installation will make the most sense. I assume Tesla will have prototypes running in Fremont and Sparks by Q1 2019 and hopefully in 2018.
2020 -- volume shipments begin and megachargers are installed with each client delivery. TE manages the installations and sells a PPA based on the forward revenue. With the trucks mileage planned for the life of the truck and the rate locked down, the PPA value should be simple, assuming Tesla market risk is ok and fed rates don't skyrocket. 7 cents a KWh is cheap and will seem crazy if we have 5% inflation for a few years. The long term trajectory for solar and wind is pretty steady and downward, so inflation for TE should not be a big issue.

 

[Reciprocity]

There's a price tag associated with everything you mention. Where's the money to come from...

Clipped..

The Megachargers will have to be in place before the semis hit the road. That's a lot of infrastructure to establish in a matter of a couple years.

Money is ready to be had as long as it's expanding and growing the business. Tesla has had zero problems getting money. All those things you mention pay for themselves though they are but profit centers.

Megachargers may not need to be in place before. Tesla could set charging at facilities of companies purchasing the trucks. Commercial rates are already 7c before adding solar+battery. There is an issue with higher rates for spikes in usage, but I assume Tesla had a plan for that which includes solar+battery.

People also keep forgetting that there are a lot of incentives to build out solar+battery that goes above and beyond the savings in energy cost. Where I'm at, I earn credits that I can sell in an annual auction. This is for energy I create and consume. The amount is equivalent to about $150/MWh, paid out quarterly. Commercial rates are lower but still around $100/MWh.

One thing I know, Tesla has done their homework and I believe there is at least 30% margin in that 7c. It may be based on improvements to battery and solar tech that we have but been told about yet. In addition, the semi battery demand is basically a requirement of the gigafactory. Meaning, Tesla needs to make 150GWh/Y in GF1 to maximize the economies of scale. Without the semi, they can't even come close. The issues is that they won't be able to build 2M cars a year by 2020, so they need 100k semis to consume that excess capacity and maximize the economies of scale. Everything is cheaper when you buy 3x as much of it and you can make long term commitments to suppliers and those commitments are backed up by orders.

Tesla is about to become the largest utility and per generator on the planet. Nothing easier to get funding for then utility grade energy production and distribution where you have guaranteed demand. 500,000 cars and 100,000 semis would consume an enormous amount of energy and Tesla is uniquely positioned, even with home solar+battery, to supply all of it. You either don't get it or have not thought about it. This is what a paradigm shift looks like. The closest thing I've witnessed first hand is the smart phone. People went from no phones to flip phones in 2 decades then to smart phones and no landlines in 5 years.

If Elon says 7c then it's 7c. Now figure out why, not why not. Elon is often wrong on timing, but not the end result. This is what he meant about everyone understanding why they had to acquire Solar City.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

OK here is a question on "how professional drivers act". I just had lunch with a fellow that was a pro driver for 20+ years, then bought into truck stop chain for the next 30 years. He says he KNOWS about truckers. What he said was - drivers will go from Dallas to Chicago in a non-stop 23 hours marathon. They then wait a few days to get a return load. They doctor their log books. They arrive zombie tired, know they are violating the rules, but almost always push the limits. I asked my bud if 5% of the pros do this or if it is 95% of the pros push the limits. He claims it is 90%. One mans opinion, but he seems to know things. How about here - any inside as to how pro drivers act on a frequent basis?

 

[jerry33]

OK here is a question on "how professional drivers act". I just had lunch with a fellow that was a pro driver for 20+ years, then bought into truck stop chain for the next 30 years. He says he KNOWS about truckers. What he said was - drivers will go from Dallas to Chicago in a non-stop 23 hours marathon. They then wait a few days to get a return load. They doctor their log books. They arrive zombie tired, know they are violating the rules, but almost always push the limits. I asked my bud if 5% of the pros do this or if it is 95% of the pros push the limits. He claims it is 90%. One mans opinion, but he seems to know things. How about here - any inside as to how pro drivers act on a frequent basis?

That might happen with some independents, but these days companies have remote monitoring and auto-logging, so they know speeds, when the rest stops take place, etc. as well has the condition of the truck. I don't buy that it's a large percentage. Thirty years ago--maybe.