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AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
I like the answer "do it" better than the response I was going to offer....talk is cheap, you can say in a locker room to motivate your players "we are GOING to win" but the encouragement does not insure victory. I like NAVISTAR confidence. I like the end game = more electric trucks on the road and fewer ICE. I own TSLA shares and IF NAVISTAR was successful in his boast, it would hurt my investment., so I hope he fails from this selfish slice. Boil it down---Do It---is the best answer
DurandalAI
Member
It kills me. It will have to be either cheaper, more reliable, or longer range than the Tesla. I don’t see them succeeding on any of those. There isn’t a comparable BEV to the Model 3 in terms of range and cost combined, with the exception to the Bolt, in which GM claims to lose money on. In fact, the Bolt is the only BEV that has comparable range. Everyone else has prototypes and vapor ware at this point.
Secondarily is Navistar going to roll out Megachargers? The old-guard OEMs don’t seem very interested in charging infrastructure.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
If they succeed or fail, the simple effort of (attempting to) producing an EV truck is a response that is helpful to the earth. The effort will expose the shortcomings, and then efforts can be made at solving them. (some can be seen now, but not all). They may get VW to build a battery plant. They may get charging stations - for cars and/or trucks - built that helps all EV's. I like that the CEO is motivating their workforce into focusing on EV. This is a good thing.
DurandalAI
Member
Sure it’s helpful for the earth, which is great, but I was addressing it from the perspective of this topic being in the investment forum. I don’t see the competitors really hurting Tesla from the perspective of Semi sales. I feel that Tesla will carve out a segment of the Semi market and likely retain that portion for a very long time to where Tesla will have the majority share of electric Semi sales probably through 2030. The other companies simply won’t scale fast enough. As a whole I don’t care who makes BEVs as long as we make the transition, but I also prefer for Tesla to sell vehicles primarily because it won’t subsidize any fossil side of the business as Tesla doesn’t have a fossil side, and of course for selfish reasons of owning TSLA.
But again, Tesla doesn't care whether it is the dominant EV Semi manufacturer or not, so long as it continues to drive the competition to replace legacy ICE semis, while also selling all it can make at a profit. Navistar also prove that they just don't understand who the real competition is.
And how many times has Audi (another VW company) said something similar about cars? I'll believe it when I see it.
Audi never claimed it would take until 2025... in fact their first Tesla Killer should have been out by now.
ELDs are required in the US, they can be as simple or complex as you want. Most are just an honor system for the team set up, one person can sleep while the other drives, however if both people are logged off duty then the truck can't be moving, if the truck is moving the system logs it as drive time. It's simple in a single driver set up, in a team set up, both drivers can only do 11 hours so there is still a 2 hour period where the vehicle must stop. DPS can pull over a commercial vehicle at any time for no reason, when they see X person in the cab and pull them over to inspect their logs to see Y person was logged you're getting a hefty fine, paid by the driver, not the company.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
You seem to be very involved with the trucking industry. Care to weigh in on the number of trustworthy drivers, and those that cheat? My source said 90% cheat. How many times do DPS pull over truckers - rare, frequent? Is it like getting your taxes audited- one out of 100 gets reviewed, unless you are in a special category?.
Oh, Navistar has a relationship with VW. Did they have that relationship when they both decided that EGR was sufficient to meet updated NOx standards?
When I saw the "do it" tweet, in my head I saw EM saying "Challenge Accepted" in NPH's voice from How I Met Your Mother.
For those questioning the semi energy price guarantee of 7 cents, look at the current bids coming in for wind /solar + storage at ~3 cents. And we are couple of years away from the semi.
Shayle Kann on Twitter
Shayle Kann on Twitter
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
So somebody can build a plant to make peaking energy available for $0.004 to $0.011 cents per kWh. What my providers sell it to me at is $0.26. That includes distribution and a bucket of fees, but still a markup of 65 fold to 23 times. Think there may be some profit in those figures?
The top of the table you are referencing is a capacity market, where capacity is priced in kW-months. This is regardless of usage. Actual energy use will have a separate MWh price, which is not there in the table.
Actually it looks like these are prices for delivery in early 2020s, so comparable to the pricing that Tesla is offering for the semi (in terms of the learning curve price drop effect for storage). The back and forth on Twitter is interesting.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
It might be nice if, instead of taunting the industry leader while having no track record themselves, they prove themselves first.
I’ve been around here since 2009, and companies have been claiming that they’ll be able to outdo Tesla since that time.
I’m still waiting.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Your provider sells you electricity based on the their average cost plus regulator approved profit margin. Not based on the cheapest watt in their grid much less the world.
My provider charges 13 cents for the first kW and 29 cents per kW if you are an energy hog on standard rates.
Better deals for those on their EV plans if you switch most of your usage to overnight.
You probably have to pay for the Navajo and Hopi Coal Mines and Power Plant shutdowns too.
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DurandalAI
Member
Holy cow you guys pay a lot for power. $0.091 for my power plus $0.015/KWh to Arcadia to buy RECs for my power.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I imagine just about everything is cheaper in Arkansas.
But salaries are lower too.
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