Remember when Tesla unveiled Powerpacks and Powerwalls. They really talked up partnering with other companies and creating an ecosystem. This was even the reason why they did not include inverters. They wanted other companies to step into that space. But since then, I don't hear much about partners, and they have included their own inverters. There is much more focus on Tesla Energy than a Tesla ecosystem.One reason is the scale of the capital needed to build a replacement system. Using FedEx and UPS as examples, does Tesla want to design an integrated system that FedEx and UPS buy from them to implement, manage, and profit from (Tesla profits on the sale of the trucks, packs, and similar stuff). Or does Tesla want to try and take on building their own logistics competitor to FedEx and UPS, admittedly potentially lower cost due to lower fuel and maintenance cost, which will include taking on the financing / capitalization of that effort?
My immediate reaction as a TSLA shareholder - I want to see Tesla providing a highly usable system of vehicles and charging infrastructure (whether it's supercharging or pack swapping - I suspect in practice both are part of the solution) that logistics companies buy, and use to lower their cost of doing business. Let the Logistics companies take on the competition and optimization of the logistics business, and leave Tesla out of it.
An idea I got from reading Buffett a long time ago - some technological advances are such that all of the benefit flows all the way through to the consumer, and none of the benefit sticks to the implementer. Improving the cost of moving stuff around looks to me like one of those situations - competition between FedEx / UPS, and other movers of stuff is so big, I'd rather they herein a position where they had no choice but to buy the trucks, packs, and system from Tesla to stay competitive with each other. They bring the capital to the table that funds rebuilding the logistics infrastructure, and Tesla brings the products they all have to have to lower their costs.
Tesla stays focused on scaling up the building of the trucks, packs, etc.., and FedEx / UPS stay focused on optimizing routes and movement of stuff.
Of course I can be wrong, and I'll wait to change my current view when I have actual business model intent and information from Tesla. But my immediate reaction is that if Tesla is focusing on transport as a service instead of building a truck and charging infrastructure that every transport company HAS to have (and therefore buy), then that sounds like a company that's losing it's way on the stated mission / vision. If the vision is accelerating the advent of sustainable transport, then Tesla needs to act in a fashion that brings as many companies to the table as possible.
If the mission / vision is to take as much of the market as possible, and they apply it to a market this big, that's going to bring competitors out like flies, turn customers into companies that are looking for any and every alternative they can find.
Back to your comment - FedEx and UPS do take a big chunk of the value chain. If Tesla starts thinking they can take a significant hunk of the FedEx / UPS contribution to the value chain, that's sort of the same thing as Tesla going into competition with FedEx / UPS. (I'm using them as examples and stand ins for the larger idea). I don't see how Tesla has a paradigm changing way to provide logistics, nor how they keep it going.
I do see how Tesla can provide paradigm shifting cost shifting products to companies that do logistics and transport though. Do this, and Tesla will profit hugely, the acceleration of sustainable transport will continue, and we all win.
Try to compete with FedEx / UPS at what they do, and that sounds like business hubris on Tesla's part, and I'll most likely be back in cash
So what happened? Did they just get greedy? I suspect that the ecosystem just wasn't coming together as quickly as Musk would have liked. And Musk is not inclined to sit around and wait for others to decide to come along.
So my impression is that we may see this repeat again. With Tesla Semi there are huge opportunities for a vast ecosystem. And so many of the ideas we are talking here about are things that an inspired entrepreneur could run with within this ecosystem. Anybody want to design the smartest damn electric trailer on the market? It's wide open, and I bet that Tesla would be happy work with you on it. So at the unveiling I expect Musk to express a great deal of welcome to anyone that want into this ecosystem. But...what happens when entrepreneurs fail to step forward? I think Tesla will fill in critical gaps. I don't see Tesla going into competition with FedEx or UPS so long as they are quick to exploit the opportunities. But if they leave big gaps, Tesla or someone else may just fill them. Amazon comes to mind.
Another issue here is that Musk really cares about Tesla's rate of growth. Sucking all the juice out of a certain value chain may not be compatible with ambitious growth. I think this is why Tesla wanted partners in the energy space. Why get bogged down in bidding for contracts and installing systems when so many other players are willing and able to do that? The more rapidly the stationary battery market grows, the more rapidly Tesla can scale into that market. That's what they wanted. But apparently Tesla Energy has to do some of that blocking and tackling themselves to get this market rolling. So I think this is really important for anyone who wants to play in Tesla's ecosystem: Tesla wants to move fast. If you can facilitate that for Tesla, Musk will be your best friend.