What if Tesla made semi-truck PowerPack based Super-Chargers?
I made a post about this here:
What if Tesla made semi truck PowerPack based super-chargers
I made a post about this here:
What if Tesla made semi truck PowerPack based super-chargers
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Yep. They sit in the car with the windows rolled up to get the full greenhouse effect
Wow, 2 hours average, up to 8 hours per day. Imagine just redeeming that time with charging.
I think Tesla will develop an electric trailer.
For the cost of building out a Model 3, they can make a 53' trailer with 75 kWh pack and drive unit. They can swap out some of the creature comforts for 9kW of solar roof at around $0.40/W. This solar system avoids need for incremental battery capacity and charging worth about $3.7/W discounted 6% over 20 years. The trailer drivetrain adds boost and regen braking. This whole trailer could be sold at about $45k with as much gross profit as the Model 3 Range.
An ordinary trailer of this size is $10k to $15k. This solar trailer would provide about $70k to $75k in total value. Priced at $45k, an extra $25k or more value would accrue to the buyer. Essentially, the trailer more than pays for itself. It could be priced as high as $70k and still pay for itself.
Adding refrigeration is also a very good deal. It adds about $10k to the value of a trailer. But with a battery pack and inverter on board, the incremental cost should be relatively low for Tesla. So the refrigerated solar trailer may be the absolute best deal on the market.
So the opportunity looks so strong that I just can't see Tesla passing up on it. If you had fresh tomatoes to ship from Sacramento to Syracuse, the refrigerated solar trailer would be the coolest way to go.
I think the Semi will be just fine without this, but it will be even better with it. Electric trucking will call for lots of charging infrastructure. For quite minimal cost some of that infrastructure can be located right on trailers. Even if a trailer sits in a charging yard for days on end, any surplus power it produces can used to charge other vehicles. And the battery packs can facilitate power management. So the trailer can produce value even when it is not on the road. So it is mobile power infrastructure, and this opens up all sorts of interesting applications like a mobile health clinic or a tiny home.
For the cost of building out a Model 3, they can make a 53' trailer with 75 kWh pack and drive unit. They can swap out some of the creature comforts for 9kW of solar roof at around $0.40/W. This solar system avoids need for incremental battery capacity and charging worth about $3.7/W discounted 6% over 20 years. The trailer drivetrain adds boost and regen braking. This whole trailer could be sold at about $45k with as much gross profit as the Model 3 Range.
An ordinary trailer of this size is $10k to $15k. This solar trailer would provide about $70k to $75k in total value. Priced at $45k, an extra $25k or more value would accrue to the buyer. Essentially, the trailer more than pays for itself. It could be priced as high as $70k and still pay for itself.
Adding refrigeration is also a very good deal. It adds about $10k to the value of a trailer. But with a battery pack and inverter on board, the incremental cost should be relatively low for Tesla. So the refrigerated solar trailer may be the absolute best deal on the market.
So the opportunity looks so strong that I just can't see Tesla passing up on it. If you had fresh tomatoes to ship from Sacramento to Syracuse, the refrigerated solar trailer would be the coolest way to go.
I think the Semi will be just fine without this, but it will be even better with it. Electric trucking will call for lots of charging infrastructure. For quite minimal cost some of that infrastructure can be located right on trailers. Even if a trailer sits in a charging yard for days on end, any surplus power it produces can used to charge other vehicles. And the battery packs can facilitate power management. So the trailer can produce value even when it is not on the road. So it is mobile power infrastructure, and this opens up all sorts of interesting applications like a mobile health clinic or a tiny home.
You could even forego the drive unit for just a regen braking system, if you wanted to simplify things. I don't think they would make the electric trailer a requirement though, as there may be a desire to use existing trailers (expecially purpose built ones), but just make it an accessory. If they do so, I imagine they'd just make a container carrier trailer only or only at first, rather than a full trailer first, as that gives the greatest flexibility.
I do think that trucks and trailers should be developed as independent products. A solar trailer could be designed to work with any kind of semi, not just electric trucks. Imagine a diesel semi getting an electric boost from its trailer! Also the electric semis need to work with any sort of trailer. So Tesla will likely want to take on the Semi first. But I think there is serious value in a solar trailer. So it would be a pity for Tesla to overlook that. We'll see what the unveil!
Exclusive: Tesla's 'long-haul' electric truck aims for 200 to 300 miles on a charge
Lots of speculation here. But as we've discuss a modest range with frequent cycling is key to getting the best ROI. So it makes good sense to focus on 200 to 300 mile range.
Lots of speculation here. But as we've discuss a modest range with frequent cycling is key to getting the best ROI. So it makes good sense to focus on 200 to 300 mile range.
I think this is typical "customer think". They don't think outside the box, and don't understand what the underlying technology is capable of. So they say "We really want a 200-300 mile range," because they think this is the limit of their wish. But the people who understand the technology will say "What they really want, if only they could express it, is ...". Elon and Jerome will come out with something they hadn't thought of. Maybe it'll be longer range than they imagined, or maybe some infrastructure where they do 100-mile legs then move the trailer to another mover and keep going, or maybe convoy, or... I don't know. But I'm pretty sure it won't be a range-limited truck, at least not without some infrastructure we, and they, hadn't thought of.
I thinking they will come out with versions that have 600+ mile range, maybe even one with 1000 mile range. They'll do this just to shut the critics up. It'll be a halo truck. Some will buy it. Some will balk at the price a dabble with shorter range. The smart one will figure out how to choose the optimal size and leverage charging infrastructure.
Tesla needs to have on smart client that that gets it and is willing to explore how get optimal advantage out of electrics. It will be a "differentiator."
Tesla needs to have on smart client that that gets it and is willing to explore how get optimal advantage out of electrics. It will be a "differentiator."
It looks like Tesla wants to first focus on what they can solve easily. The last routes leads to city or warehouses where companies can install their own charging infrastructure.
Rather than going big to support very long haul routes and it's infrastructure, I would like Tesla to develop a modular vehicle architecture for vehicle needs that support around the city driving- small to mid size modular vehicle with modular battery. depending on the carrying load, companies can decide on the pack size on a daily basis. This architecture if developed can instantly bring millions of businesses on board.
Rather than going big to support very long haul routes and it's infrastructure, I would like Tesla to develop a modular vehicle architecture for vehicle needs that support around the city driving- small to mid size modular vehicle with modular battery. depending on the carrying load, companies can decide on the pack size on a daily basis. This architecture if developed can instantly bring millions of businesses on board.
BTW, I did some math on solar trailers recently. With a large trailer, solar on the sides and top (but not front and back), and an average sun angle of 45° relative to the top and one side, with 22% efficient solar panels (Sunpower is 22,5%), you could get nearly 20kW off of the trailer on a clear day. Not enough to run it nonstop as a "solar semi", but certainly a nice, welcome bonus. Imagine too if trailers had their own battery packs slung on the underside, so that they're charging while they're sitting around waiting for delivery... and then extend the vehicle's range when hooked up.
I doubt we'll see any of these things with the initial Semi unveiling, but there's a lot of potential improvements down the road.
I doubt we'll see any of these things with the initial Semi unveiling, but there's a lot of potential improvements down the road.
BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
To anticipate what Tesla will do, it helps to think 5-10 years into the future. Trucks will be autonomous by then so owners will want to keep them busy 24/7 to maximize efficiencies. That suggests battery swapping so there's no time wasted in charging, and 5 minute swaps with no human needed.
This also makes it likely that Tesla will lease or rent batteries.
I believe this is what will we will see at the Semi reveal.
This also makes it likely that Tesla will lease or rent batteries.
I believe this is what will we will see at the Semi reveal.
I strongly don't. Tesla does not want to have to inventory batteries. Batteries which will quickly become obsolete (think of how quickly Tesla unveils new types of packs). Batteries which have to meet different needs in different vehicles. Batteries which will annoy drivers if it's worse than the one that they just had. And battery swap is never simple. We all remember the minute-and-a-half robot swap for the S, but in reality you had about 10 minutes of overhead, had to book in advance, it involved a mechanic on-hand, cost $50 each, and you had to come back to pick up your battery in a second swap.
It's just not a good idea. Leave the batteries (huge structural elements with sensitive high power connections) where they are and keep pushing down charge times.
It's just not a good idea. Leave the batteries (huge structural elements with sensitive high power connections) where they are and keep pushing down charge times.
SebastianR
Active Member
I think we need to forget about Tesla managed battery swapping. However, I could very well imagine a client managed battery swap option. If a client wants to keep inventories - fine. If a client has fixed routes, established infrastructure etc. great!
But I can't imagine Tesla doing battery swapping themselves: it just won't ever scale enough / be flexible enough to adjust to shipping trends, seasonal demand fluctuations (X-mas time anybody?!?) etc. etc.
But I can't imagine Tesla doing battery swapping themselves: it just won't ever scale enough / be flexible enough to adjust to shipping trends, seasonal demand fluctuations (X-mas time anybody?!?) etc. etc.
Krugerrand
Meow
In one of the investor threads someone suggested multiple chargers charging the battery/batteries at once. This makes the most sense to me. If there are two batteries with two charge ports (one on each side of the truck or some such) that would reduce charging time. I mean, trucks already have two fuel tanks, why not two batteries?
And why would you do a design that makes more work for the driver every time they want to connect and disconnect, rather than a cooled charge cable which can accomplish the same thing with one cable?
Tesla isn't very into ugly "hack" solutions. Note how sleek and simple they made their connector versus, say, CHAdeMO.
Krugerrand
Meow
Wow, really? It's a hack?
You've never driven a big rig before, eh? Or known anyone who has? Truckers have to do regular 'walkabouts' (just like bus drivers, and anyone else who trailers horses or campers or whatever would logically and reasonably do), checking lights, connections, tires etc... It's really not a big deal or extra 'work' for the trucker to plug in one side, do a walkabout, plug in the other side. Or maybe two plugs on the same side. You're sounding a bit like the people who complain you have to plug an EV every night.
Maybe they will have a cooled charge cable. Maybe not. We'll know soon enough.
I guess this video suggest that the platooning idea really is about saving fuel and emissions, a 10% reduction.
The video did not indicate what price of diesel they were assuming, so I had to look up prices.
Fuel-prices-europe.info - Current Fuel Prices in Europe
Note that many European countries have prices above EUR 1.25/l (USD 5.58/gal) while US is at EUR 0.551/l (USD 2.46/gal).
So one dimension we need to explore will contemplating the market opportunity of Tesla Semi is the local price for diesel. Where the diesel-electric spead in cost per mile is highest, it would stand to reason that electric trucks will deliver the best economics.
For example in the US commercial power is around 9c/kWh, so we get this diesel electric spread of
$0.26/mile= $2.46/gal ÷ 6mpg + $0.09/kWh ÷ 0.6mile/kWh
Another country with say $5.58 and the same commercial power rate would have a spread of $0.78/mile. This would be about three time the spread in the US. Most of the value that the electric semi creates is in this spread.
I think this has important implications for where BEV semi adoption will happen most quickly.
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