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#381
Article very relevant to this thread:
Tesla's New Battery Doesn't Work That Well With Solar - Bloomberg Business
Takeaways -
1. The 10 kwh is intended for backup only and doesn't have the cycle life for daily use,
2. the 7 kwh that actually has the cycle life for daily use (grid defection) - will not be offered by SolarCity, expect in Hawaii, next year.
3. The reason given is that the 7 kwh is not economic in most regions.

I think Tesla is not clear enough with the 10 kwh not being fit for daily use. But regarding people wanting the 7 kwh anyway, they should go to a different installer.
 
#382
When I looked at the BOSCH batteries, their bpt-s 5 hybrid system (~$30000 for 10 kWh) is about 10 times more expensive than Tesla PowerPack/PowerWall; and theirs are also ugly.

Can someone explain to me briefly why Tesla PowerPack/PowerWall is that cheap? Different cells?
 
#383
cluster said:
When I looked at the BOSCH batteries, their bpt-s 5 hybrid system (~$30000 for 10 kWh) is about 10 times more expensive than Tesla PowerPack/PowerWall; and theirs are also ugly.

Can someone explain to me briefly why Tesla PowerPack/PowerWall is that cheap? Different cells?
Click to expand...

Maybe your question should be where is Bosch buying their cells? Are they made of gold? And how big is the mark-up?
 
#388
The 7 kWh PW has chemistry suitable for 15,000 deep cycles over 15 years. Is this right? If so, this pushes the levelized cost down to 3 c/kWh excluding the inefficiency cost of power which is around 1/8 the price you charge at.

Suppose your solar system produces 21 kWh at 10 c/kWh and you use 8 to charge your battery. You are later able to discharge 7 at 3 c/kWh for storage. Altogether you have 20 kWh of usable energy for $2.31 = 21×0.10 + 7 × 0.03. This works out to 11.55 c/kWh solar+battery. Wow. It looks like Hawaii Electric is in serious trouble. 8 kW solar plus 3 or 4 Powerwall units might just be all you need to go off-grid.
 
#389
jhm said:
The 7 kWh PW has chemistry suitable for 15,000 deep cycles over 15 years. Is this right? If so, this pushes the levelized cost down to 3 c/kWh excluding the inefficiency cost of power which is around 1/8 the price you charge at.

Suppose your solar system produces 21 kWh at 10 c/kWh and you use 8 to charge your battery. You are later able to discharge 7 at 3 c/kWh for storage. Altogether you have 20 kWh of usable energy for $2.31 = 21×0.10 + 7 × 0.03. This works out to 11.55 c/kWh solar+battery. Wow. It looks like Hawaii Electric is in serious trouble. 8 kW solar plus 3 or 4 Powerwall units might just be all you need to go off-grid.
Click to expand...

It is actually 1,000-1,500 cycles for the "back-up" version and 5,000 cycles (15 years @365 cycles) for the "daily cycler" battery
 
#390
vgrinshpun said:
It is actually 1,000-1,500 cycles for the "back-up" version and 5,000 cycles (15 years @365 cycles) for the "daily cycler" battery
Click to expand...

Aw, rats, that gets us to a levelized cost of about 8.6 c/kWh for storage. That gets my 20 kWh example to $2.70 per day for a co.bind cost of 13.5 c/kWh. This is still pretty attractive.

BTW, it strikes me that if you had both a daily and a weekly unit, it would make sense to have some sort of controller that would charge and discharge the daily first, then tap into the weekly when there is need for more power or more energy. This way the daily unit would do most of the cycling, while the weekly extends the total capacity. So I wonder if Tesla may be working on such a controller for either Powerwall or even their cars. In a car you could use about 20 kWh of rapid cycling cycle coupled with 80 kWh of cheaper range extending cells. So long as the density is all good, this could be a nice pairing for longer life and longer range at a lower cost. Now we know that Tesla has a longer life cell chemistry. It will be interesting to see what they do with it.
 
#391
jhm said:
Aw, rats, that gets us to a levelized cost of about 8.6 c/kWh for storage. That gets my 20 kWh example to $2.70 per day for a co.bind cost of 13.5 c/kWh. This is still pretty attractive.

BTW, it strikes me that if you had both a daily and a weekly unit, it would make sense to have some sort of controller that would charge and discharge the daily first, then tap into the weekly when there is need for more power or more energy. This way the daily unit would do most of the cycling, while the weekly extends the total capacity. So I wonder if Tesla may be working on such a controller for either Powerwall or even their cars. In a car you could use about 20 kWh of rapid cycling cycle coupled with 80 kWh of cheaper range extending cells. So long as the density is all good, this could be a nice pairing for longer life and longer range at a lower cost. Now we know that Tesla has a longer life cell chemistry. It will be interesting to see what they do with it.
Click to expand...

It could make sense with such a "hybrid battery" of sorts for storage, but not for cars. You don't want to carry around a heavy "range extender battery" with lower cycle life all the time. Also the complexity of using to different chemistries together like that in a car would be prohibitive. (Differences in voltages, temperature preference, resistance etc).
 
#392
One of the more interesting articles...
Les batteries dElon Musk arrivent en Europe sous la marque Panasonic
I used google translate to read this. Perhaps someone who knows french could verify?
It seems panasonic and tesla are dividing market share. Panasonic will have PowerStation in europe and japan (the product is offered in japan already),
and tesla will have the US market with the Powerwall. It would be very interesting to see what are the prices offered by panasonic. I didn't get that from the article.
 
#393
daniel Ox9EFD said:
One of the more interesting articles...
Les batteries dElon Musk arrivent en Europe sous la marque Panasonic
I used google translate to read this. Perhaps someone who knows french could verify?
It seems panasonic and tesla are dividing market share. Panasonic will have PowerStation in europe and japan (the product is offered in japan already),
and tesla will have the US market with the Powerwall. It would be very interesting to see what are the prices offered by panasonic. I didn't get that from the article.
Click to expand...

I can confirm that the articles is quoting Laurent Abadie (Panasonic Europe) as saying they will be launching a product by the end of 2015 in Germany. Price TBD.

Given what came out during yesterday's call (with large multi-cell batteries the real value comes with software/mechanical/others engineering rather than purely chemical engineering) it might be that Tesla and Panasonic are only sharing the chemical engineering and manufacturing side of things at the moment.

In any case.... demand is so large that "competition" isn't the word that comes to mind. "Party guest" seems more appropriate.
 
#394
daniel Ox9EFD said:
One of the more interesting articles...
Les batteries dElon Musk arrivent en Europe sous la marque Panasonic
I used google translate to read this. Perhaps someone who knows french could verify?
It seems panasonic and tesla are dividing market share. Panasonic will have PowerStation in europe and japan (the product is offered in japan already),
and tesla will have the US market with the Powerwall. It would be very interesting to see what are the prices offered by panasonic. I didn't get that from the article.
Click to expand...

I think Elon specifically mentioned in the CC that they would be selling their stationary storage in Germany so I think that they will have a presence in Europe.
 
#396
I see massive demand for this product in Africa and India. This is not just based on common sense, but also from a number of articles from South Africa that say it will be very welcomed. It is easy if you are not actually competing with anything, and are providing a real solution to an existing problem. And from what I understand Tesla plans to sell in SA starting late 2016.
 
#397
I've been thinking about Tesla's commercial/utility offering, and I'm not convinced, at least for utilities. Why?
  • Too few cycles:
    • Utilities want to use storage intensively, with two big discharge/recharge cycles daily to meet the morning and afternoon peaks, plus a lot of load-following/voltage management 24/7. Call this 2.5 cycles/day.
    • At 3,000–5,000 cycle lifetimes, Tesla's batteries would only last 3–4 years.
    • Utilities prefer capital investments that are amortized over 30–40 years.
  • Tesla also didn't discuss what, if any, control software is built into these units. It will take a lot of "smarts" to optimize usage of these units, so the lack of any discussion about these smarts is troubling.
  • It's unclear what all is included in the $250/kWh price. We know that the PowerWall units don't include the AC/DC power electronics; what about the utility/commercial units?
Clearly Tesla has been successful so far with its introduction in this space, but I think there's room for competing technologies to outcompete Tesla.
 
#400
Robert.Boston said:
I've been thinking about Tesla's commercial/utility offering, and I'm not convinced, at least for utilities. Why?
  • Too few cycles:
    • Utilities want to use storage intensively, with two big discharge/recharge cycles daily to meet the morning and afternoon peaks, plus a lot of load-following/voltage management 24/7. Call this 2.5 cycles/day.
    • At 3,000–5,000 cycle lifetimes, Tesla's batteries would only last 3–4 years.
    • Utilities prefer capital investments that are amortized over 30–40 years.
  • Tesla also didn't discuss what, if any, control software is built into these units. It will take a lot of "smarts" to optimize usage of these units, so the lack of any discussion about these smarts is troubling.
  • It's unclear what all is included in the $250/kWh price. We know that the PowerWall units don't include the AC/DC power electronics; what about the utility/commercial units?
Clearly Tesla has been successful so far with its introduction in this space, but I think there's room for competing technologies to outcompete Tesla.
Click to expand...
Commercial is the providence of Solarcity. Demand logic is the control software for both commercial and home storage. Grid logic is the controls for utility level or "micro grid" level.I think the best way to look at the value of tesla energy is really in manufacturing a device effectively capable of voltage management and reactive power support(duck curve flattening). With DG, individual "back up" capabilities are secondary, not the core value to the entire network, in my opinion. Tesla/Solarcity have developed anentire business(battery design/capabilities) model around this new utitliy design. The utilities will pay for this "firm capacity resource." New York's REV, California's More Then Smart AB327, and Hawaii's DG 2.0 are all setting up their utiltity business models in this direction right now as I write this.
 
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