Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

How could they possibly secure the hundreds of huge trucks rolling directly through their factories given the enormity of anti-Tesla economic forces aligned against Tesla, both law abiding and otherwise (unions)? Autonomously navigated or not, there's no telling what -and I can think of too many bad examples that I won't mention here for fear of spreading bad ideas) that could disable the factory for a very long time.

This is probably just the central roadway ay GF Austin being covered and being an indoor structure. Only trucks owned by Tesla would drive inside, others simply drop their trailer.

Whether or not the roadway is covered makes little difference.
Security is probably better as the truck is screened before it drives on the roadway.

The advantage for the truck driver is a pleasant climate controlled indoor environment. No backing up in heavy rain or hot sun.

The factory has a larger solar roof which helps offset the extra construction costs.

More pros than cons IMO.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The only reason Elon mentioned driving inside the gigafactory was to point out the ability to drive an emissions-free truck indoors. Let's not turn every little comment into something more than it is.

I'm sure they're adding a few stretches of road inside the factory just to prove a point (and have some small amount of logistical functionality), but don't take this to mean miles and miles of road.

 

[mongo]

What would the difference be to the trucks along the outside of the factories currently?

The only major difference is that it's in between the factory halves, which is almost a necessity simply because of the size factor.

Assuming everything is provided in cargo containers:
1-Speed: tractor trailer pulls straight in, container is removed and/or empty one takes its place, truck/trailer move out.
2-Density: no need for manuvering room to turn the trailer 45 or 90 to match the loading dock.
3-D ensity: trailer lift system allows parts to go directly to the floor or section where they are used.
4-D ensity: a holding area allows them to stack incoming goods till needed and stack empty trailers versus the large logistic lots. Loading docks could be multilevel and work with stacked containers.
5: Material flow: custom containers could have rail systems in the floor to allow all cargo to be automatically removed via tug, versus pallet by pallet. Could also have side access, but that's probably over optimization.

Net result: A lot more manufacturing per m^2.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Interesting article linked by Kelvin Yang on twitter that Mitsubishi has produced a new electrolyte for Tesla. It's a short article:

HONG KONG, Sept 20, 2020 - (ACN Newswire) - - A Mitsubishi Chemical (MTLHY) technical expert revealed that the important innovations of Tesla's new battery are the positive and negative electrodes and the new electrolyte. Mitsubishi Chemical has perfectly matched the electrolyte technology for the new battery. This electrolyte mainly uses new solutes and functional additives, which can greatly improve battery performance. The technical expert said that the solvent in the new electrolyte is still supplied by the Chinese company Shida Shenghua, and the amount of DMC in the solvent will be greatly increased. Beginning in 2017, Mitsubishi and Shida Shenghua have jointly developed a new type of solute. This product will soon be mass-produced, which can effectively increase battery cycle times and energy density.

I've heard of the electrolyte contributing to increased cycle times but the increase in energy density is new to me.

https://twitter.com/KelvinYang7/status/1307941427062681602

 

[ZachF]

Tesla Sold 35.4% of US Auto Exports in Q2 | ZAP EVs Blog

It'd bet in dollar value it's over 50%.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla initiates talks to set up research centre in Bengaluru – The Free Press Newspaper

 

[Nocturnal]

I hope Elon is sandbagging with his latest delivery push. Obviously by now we all know those emails leak and if he said "we are close to blowing away our old record" that is very different than "we have a chance at hitting a new record".

 

[Krugerrand]

I hope Elon is sandbagging with his latest delivery push. Obviously by now we all know those emails leak and if he said "we are close to blowing away our old record" that is very different than "we have a chance at hitting a new record".

And the worry begins yet again. It’s got to be, at the very least, real tiresome to relive this every single quarter, huh?

 

[Nocturnal]

And the worry begins yet again. It’s got to be, at the very least, real tiresome to relive this every single quarter, huh?

I wouldn't say I'm worried. I'd prefer better news obviously, but if we only hit 110 it doesn't matter to my investment. I definitely wish Tesla could move away from this end of quarter push but that might be a long time coming.

 

[Prunesquallor]

From Sam Korus in this week's ARK Invest newsletter:

"According to Wright’s Law, every cumulative doubling of units produced will drive the cost of battery cells down by 18%. In anticipation of Battery Day this week, we are wondering whether Tesla will announce breakthroughs that will sustain Wright’s Law or that will change the slope of the curve, accelerating the cost decline of its battery pack systems?

Rarely does the slope of the curve associated with Wright’s Law change, so Tesla’s announcements on Battery Day probably will keep it on pace with the 18% cost decline for every cumulative doubling...though anything is possible with Elon Musk. ARK’s research suggests that its battery technology is three to four years ahead of the competition already, so we believe Tesla’s soon-to-be announced breakthroughs should extend its lead as the market for electric vehicles moves into an exponential growth trajectory."

 

[avoigt]

A huge wave of love and support overwhelmed me the last days and I want to thank everybody who supported me be if with words, information, travel expenses, or as a Patron.

The Tesla community rocks!

I made it successfully to San Francisco and it feels great to be here. Having 11 hours in a plane a mask on is no fun and at customs, they separated me into another room to check my NIE (National Interest Exception).

Feels special to be able to participate battery day in person. Still hurdles to overcome though...

I published already a first article at Patreon that will later hopefully be online at CleanTechnica. Many asked about how this all happened and the trip therefore I summarized my thought during the flight.

The next days are pact with meetings and many people that I meet around battery day and I will try my best to share as much as possible.

1 day to go

 

[Prunesquallor]

A huge wave of love and support overwhelmed me the last days and I want to thank everybody who supported me be if with words, information, travel expenses, or as a Patron.

The Tesla community rocks!

I made it successfully to San Francisco and it feels great to be here. Having 11 hours in a plane a mask on is no fun and at customs, they separated me into another room to check my NIE (National Interest Exception).

Feels special to be able to participate battery day in person. Still hurdles to overcome though...

I published already a first article at Patreon that will later hopefully be online at CleanTechnica. Many asked about how this all happened and the trip therefore I summarized my thought during the flight.

The next days are pact with meetings and many people that I meet around battery day and I will try my best to share as much as possible.

1 day to go

Glad the trip went well. Have a beer and work through the jet-lag.

 

[jbcarioca]

It'd bet in dollar value it's over 50%.

Possibly not:
BMW is biggest U.S. automotive exporter by value for fifth year
As virus raged, demand for U.S. vehicle exports surged
Almost all BMW SUV are made in USA. All three Alabama OEM's export from USA.
Of course the traditional 'big three' are not among the major exporters.
Prior to Model 3 Tesla certainly was the big value leader per unit. Now it is unclear.
Regardless, Tesla will probably rain the single largest volume US exporter until GF-3, GF-4 and other non-US factories come online.
The larger point might well be that when TE exports are added Tesla rises further in US export leadership ranks.

Until now Boeing has been the giant, but there is solid reason to expect that the future will see that diminish. The consequences of both 'missteps' by Being and growing insistence on local production will see to that, not to mention the fragile state of Boeing global customers.

Thus, it seems likely that Tesla political influence might well grow due to export prowess and SpaceX halo plus Texas added to California, Nevada and New York. It is likely that Michigan and other States will gradually grow to desire greater Tesla presence.

Our primary question is to understand the potential economic value of all these developments.

 

[Todd Burch]

I wouldn't say I'm worried. I'd prefer better news obviously, but if we only hit 110 it doesn't matter to my investment. I definitely wish Tesla could move away from this end of quarter push but that might be a long time coming.

1. The email is about Fremont production. Not worldwide.

2. Shanghai, Austin, and Berlin are all about unwinding the end of quarter push.

 

[mikevbf]

I hope Elon is sandbagging with his latest delivery push. Obviously by now we all know those emails leak and if he said "we are close to blowing away our old record" that is very different than "we have a chance at hitting a new record".

Has no one pointed out yet that Elon's email is about California production and does not include production out of Shanghai?
Edit: Todd beat me to it by seconds lol

 

[Nocturnal]

Has no one pointed out yet that Elon's email is about California production and does not include production out of Shanghai?

Yes Todd did above. Electrek did not.

 

[ZachF]

Possibly not:
BMW is biggest U.S. automotive exporter by value for fifth year
As virus raged, demand for U.S. vehicle exports surged
Almost all BMW SUV are made in USA. All three Alabama OEM's export from USA.
Of course the traditional 'big three' are not among the major exporters.
Prior to Model 3 Tesla certainly was the big value leader per unit. Now it is unclear.
Regardless, Tesla will probably rain the single largest volume US exporter until GF-3, GF-4 and other non-US factories come online.
The larger point might well be that when TE exports are added Tesla rises further in US export leadership ranks.

Until now Boeing has been the giant, but there is solid reason to expect that the future will see that diminish. The consequences of both 'missteps' by Being and growing insistence on local production will see to that, not to mention the fragile state of Boeing global customers.

Thus, it seems likely that Tesla political influence might well grow due to export prowess and SpaceX halo plus Texas added to California, Nevada and New York. It is likely that Michigan and other States will gradually grow to desire greater Tesla presence.

Our primary question is to understand the potential economic value of all these developments.

...and how many did BMW import?

net is what matters, not gross.

 

[Big Time]

I can’t wait to hear F Gordos response to Q3 numbers. Hopefully he will give up like the rest

 

[Singuy]

1. The email is about Fremont production. Not worldwide.

2. Shanghai, Austin, and Berlin are all about unwinding the end of quarter push.

Even though it makes more sense that Elon was only referring to Fremont or sandbagging to motivate employees, we can't rule out 100% that he didn't mean total deliveries.

 

[ZsoZso]

And the worry begins yet again. It’s got to be, at the very least, real tiresome to relive this every single quarter, huh?

When did they promise to "eliminate the wave", i.e. stop this facade of dressing up quarterly numbers by pushing all sales to end of quarter by producing long shipping time cars early in the quarter and local ones last ? This puts a lot of strain on logistics, makes end of quarter deliveries crazy, hectic, lots of bad customer experiences in addition to stressing out employees.


Edit: Oh look I found some references, turns out I did not just imagine this wave ending / unwinding stuff:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
"Assuming Q2 is the start of the elimination of the wave, these discounts will hopefully go away. In other words, Tesla will hopefully be shifting to a model where quarterly boundaries are invisible to the behavior of the company. A great thing longer term.

In short, the wave approach was stupid stupid stupid all around, and Elon should have eliminated it long ago. Good riddens."

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
"The wave is bad business, but it produces prettier quarterly numbers."

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
"They are unwinding the wave deliveries for Model 3."

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
"When they start shipping even in M3, we know they are serious about ending the wave."

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

I'm also very curious what Tesla plans to avoid these strains on the delivery system in the future. Elon's email clearly suggested that this would be a 'final' such inventory flush:

"This is the biggest wave in Tesla's history, but it is primarily a function of our first delivery of mass manufactured cars on two continents simultaneously, and will not be repeated in subsequent quarters."​

But if first two months of the quarter are for international units then there's always going to be quarterly fluctuations. The working capital expense of having ~30% worth of quarterly production (30k units) would be enormous, at least to financials. So maybe Tesla is trying to build up an inventory more gradually, pushing out the point of U.S.-only production by one week in each quarter and thus basically introducing fully continuous deliveries by the end of 2019?

Guess, it is not yet end of 2019, because they still did not manage to "introduce fully continuous deliveries", eh ?