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Are we concerned about flirting with the bottom of the 200 day moving average...? Asking because I'm gradually selling June 2022's and buying June 2023 LEAPS.

(and this is not my area of expertise, as I do not posses a degree in botany, you see...
The 200 DMA means nothing now. This stock breaks that number on a 0.7% Nasdaq red day. There is no actual support there.
 
But as is essentially the case for the gasoline taxes, tax EVs based on miles driven.

EDIT: While also keeping mind that electric companies pay taxes that are passed along to customers' bills.
All companies pay tax if they make profits. Exxon and Duke elec.

What is important is to pre-empt the states having hugely divergent EV tax policy. Taxing EVs is a must. The fuel tax is a huge % of many state budgets funds local roads and other things and without the tax EVs are free loading (and don't give me some clean air bs or global warming bs) on the current tax bill, within 10 years the % of gas cars is going to plummet and somehow the roads will have to be maintained. As the car fleet goes EV this tax will get crushed and negatively impact local services. Better to pre-empt and encourage states to want EVs for tax reasons. I'm fairly agnostic as to how they manage the tax, by milage or by some other metric, who cares. It is going to be critical to tax EVs.
 
Is he saying he's better than Randy Pobst, seriously? lol

Yes I think that's what he is saying. He was able to hit 160mph in the straight away of Laguna Seca with a McLaren Senna which is a stock production car record. He run a 1:27.9 in a stock McLaren 765LT. Is he better than Randy idk lol.

Ok, that is just not how track days work. There is no such thing as getting all gussied up and taking out your new fastest accelerating production car ever made and being a 'gentleman'. Maybe for a period of time, but not when it is hot lap time and I'd be floored if they don't get hours of hot lap time. I've been to some 'fun' track events and this is not one of them. I'd bet they are editing some good footage now and we'll get some official times as well as some entire lap static camera footage. I'd also love full telematics, but we'll see. Love to see the G meter (accelerometer) as well as the temps of various drive-train pieces.

At least on the track days that I have been to they always say "this is not a race we are here to have fun". The group that you are assigned to has nothing to do with what car you drive but your skill level and some groups require signaling to pass. Randy since he is an instructor he can run on whatever group he wants and I assume they run in whatever group had the fewest cars so they could test the car. You can tell that the drivers were not very skilled and there was signaling from the Porsche.

Don't get me wrong the Model S Plaid is amazing and I want one. The car shows that is a monster specially on how easily passes the P1 on the straight away.
 
Yes I think that's what he is saying. He was able to hit 160mph in the straight away of Laguna Seca with a McLaren Senna which is a stock production car record. He run a 1:27.9 in a stock McLaren 765LT. Is he better than Randy idk lol.



At least on the track days that I have been to they always say "this is not a race we are here to have fun". The group that you are assigned to has nothing to do with what car you drive but your skill level and some groups require signaling to pass. Randy since he is an instructor he can run on whatever group he wants and I assume they run in whatever group had the fewest cars so they could test the car. You can tell that the drivers were not very skilled and there was signaling from the Porsche.

Don't get me wrong the Model S Plaid is amazing and I want one. The car shows that is a monster specially on how easily passes the P1 on the straight away.
The McLaren Senna is a two-door sports car. The Model S Plaid is a four-door sedan. 😁
 
while I agree with you, TE’s theory/speculation that it had the 4680 battery and the plaid is detuned (in terms of range) a bit is interesting. He felt that tesla is sandbagging the numbers and will allow us to “unlock” the range via software upgrade in few months or next year as part of strategy. He reports it would be great advertising strategy bc no other manufacturers can do that OTA. Possibly to control supply and demand?

this is wishful thinking bordering on delusional, and the only reason it's given any credence is because many Tesla bulls are so credulous of unsubstantiated information if it happens to be positive for Tesla.

I agree 100% with the first part of the post.

On the last point, we don't actually know that Plaid+ was going to have 4680s.
My recollection is that Plaid+ was scheduled to ship in 2022, after Model Y from Berlin and Austin.
And probably after the ramp of 4680 cell production in Austin.

The only bit of speculation that makes sense to me was a Twitter post speculating that Plaid+ was bring built on the Roadster platform. If that means using a variant of the Roadster pack, that may or may not be 4680.

I'm only posting this to make the point that I think cancellation on the Plaid+ probably has nothing to do with the current state of the 4680 ramp. People are worrying on the basis of a very tenuous hypothesis.

disagree entirely. Plaid+ was always meant to have 4680s. It was cancelled for more or less the exact reasons Elon stated -- Plaid with 18650's was practically "just as good" performance-wise (although not range-wise) as Plaid+ with 4680s. The problem, though, was Plaid+ killing Plaid sales. Tesla has contracts for tons of 18650 batteries and they gotta put them somewhere. It doesn't make sense not to use them. But Elon underestimated the demand for Plaid+ and that created a supply problem -- too many 18650s, not enough 4680s. So Plaid+ had to go.
 
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On the last point, we don't actually know that Plaid+ was going to have 4680s.

We kind of do though. The Plaid+ was going to have a MUCH greater range than either the standard S or the Plaid. That large of a jump in range could only really be attributed to one thing: the 4680 cells, which we know will have a much greater energy density.

The current ranges of the S and the Plaid are only slightly better than the Raven versions were. That can only be due to one of two things:

1. Either they are still using the 18650 cells

or

2. They are using the 4680's and sandbagging the ranges in software in order to "unlock" it later.

I feel #1 is far more likely than #2, for a variety of reasons. Time will tell of course!
 
(might even keep him on earth a little longer, but I doubt it - he is for sure going to Mars on that first crewed starship in ’27, ’29 or ‘31)

Let's nip this in the bud right here: There is no information that leads me to believe Elon is in a hurry to go to Mars on one of the first missions. IMO, highly unlikely. I've seen him asked that question at least three times over the last several years and at no time did he ever signal a high probability that he would.

Remember, his dream is for humankind to have interplanetary subsistence, not for him to go to Mars personally. It doesn't increase the chance of success of humans becoming inter-planetary for him to personally go there. I suspect if he lives long enough, his health remains good enough and a Mars colony is successfully established, he will want to go there to experience Mars in his EOL. Or maybe he would visit and return. I mean, what CEO wouldn't want to go see what he has helped build? But he's not chomping at the bit to be on the first mission. And he's never indicated he was.
 
Michael Bapis, managing director of Vios Advisors at Rockefeller Capital Management, told CNBC on Tuesday that Tesla’s roughly 24% market share and ambitions in the electric vehicle, space and clean energy markets make it a name worth watching.

“Tesla is going to continue to be the leader in the industry, especially for the foreseeable future,” Bapis said on “Trading Nation.” “When you think Tesla, you think innovation.”

He expects the company to keep delivering strong sales and earnings growth, which he said could raise demand for the stock.

“If you look at some of these institutional funds ... and they don’t have this stock in there, they’re definitely going to get questioned why,” he said.

 
We kind of do though. The Plaid+ was going to have a MUCH greater range than either the standard S or the Plaid. That large of a jump in range could only really be attributed to one thing: the 4680 cells, which we know will have a much greater energy density.

The current ranges of the S and the Plaid are only slightly better than the Raven versions were. That can only be due to one of two things:

1. Either they are still using the 18650 cells

or

2. They are using the 4680's and sandbagging the ranges in software in order to "unlock" it later.

I feel #1 is far more likely than #2, for a variety of reasons. Time will tell of course!
The ‘Tesla economist’ who I believe is an excellent follow believes for a variety of sound reasons that the plaid S HAS the 4680’s. As you said; time will tell.

I do agree with him that 1) due to the proximity to the Kato Road facility…2) the delayed release of the plaid S, and 3)…the complication of building the model S with a different battery and then having to convert the whole line to later accept the 4680 would not fit the Tesla business model that we have come to know and love.

I'm not convinced certainly; but I know some have ruled it out; and I think this may be a fools errand.

 
this is wishful thinking bordering on delusional, and the only reason it's given any credence is because many Tesla bulls are so credulous of unsubstantiated information if it happens to be positive for Tesla.



disagree entirely. Plaid+ was always meant to have 4680s. It was cancelled for more or less the exact reasons Elon stated -- Plaid with 18650's was practically "just as good" performance-wise (although not range-wise) as Plaid+ with 4680s. The problem, though, was Plaid+ killing Plaid sales. Tesla has contracts for tons of 18650 batteries and they gotta put them somewhere. It doesn't make sense not to use them. But Elon underestimated the demand for Plaid+ and that created a supply problem -- too many 18650s, not enough 4680s. So Plaid+ had to go.

I suspect there will probably be a 4680 Model S with the Plaid+ specs in ~2023, It will just be the Plaid though (not Plaid+), and it will come out without warning.
 
1) The F-150 King Ranch are today's Lincolns.

2)The only full size body-on-frame SUVs that died/don't sell well are 2 doors and/or weird half truck/half SUV vehicles.

3) Chrysler/FCA have stupidly not sold a full size SUV in the US for ~35 years. Stellantis is now remedying that stupidity with Jeep Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer. They are using the body-on-frame chassis from the current generation 2018 RAM.

4) Ford makes money hand over fist selling Expedition/Navigator. GM makes money hand over fist selling Suburban/Tahoe/Yukon(XL) and Escalade. They limit production/sales on these vehicles in order to remain CAFE compliant.

1) Semantics, but point was Cadillacs were the primo luxury American vehicle for a long time, that is now replaced with King Ranch F150s

2) Excursion, Suburban 2500, Land Cruiser (in US) and the 2 doors died

3) This is true, but not sold yet and will likely be a limited vehicle as well.

4) Oh Ford definitely make money off those. Not really hand over fist though... they sell less than 100k of them combined. It has been a disappointment for them for years. This is GMs bread and butter and money maker for sure, corrected. Neither are limited by CAFE compliance.
 
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The ‘Tesla economist’ who I believe is an excellent follow believes for a variety of sound reasons that the plaid S HAS the 4680’s. As you said; time will tell.

I do agree with him that 1) due to the proximity to the Kato Road facility…2) the delayed release of the plaid S, and 3)…the complication of building the model S with a different battery and then having to convert the whole line to later accept the 4680 would not fit the Tesla business model that we have come to know and love.

I'm not convinced certainly; but I know some have ruled it out; and I think this may be a fools errand.

One speculation I'm making is that the changes to the interior related to headroom and passenger space have been needed because the floor is thicker - (the floor being thicker is my speculation).
Interior space has not been a concern I've heard anywhere, so why change it?
But if the battery pack is thicker, you might need to adjust the interior layout to compensate.
4680s- possibly, but could also be repackaging and/or increased cooling for the 18650s.
 
One speculation I'm making is that the changes to the interior related to headroom and passenger space have been needed because the floor is thicker - (the floor being thicker is my speculation).
Interior space has not been a concern I've heard anywhere, so why change it?
But if the battery pack is thicker, you might need to adjust the interior layout to compensate.
4680s- possibly, but could also be repackaging and/or increased cooling for the 18650s.
The new battery pack is one layer. Thicker extends downward into the road by about half an inch. Nothing in the body needs to be adjusted. Maybe the suspension. Maybe. This is not the issue here.
 
One speculation I'm making is that the changes to the interior related to headroom and passenger space have been needed because the floor is thicker - (the floor being thicker is my speculation).
Interior space has not been a concern I've heard anywhere, so why change it?
But if the battery pack is thicker, you might need to adjust the interior layout to compensate.
4680s- possibly, but could also be repackaging and/or increased cooling for the 18650s.

The interior space was adjusted because it was sub-optimal in a luxury car. People were having to duck to enter and exit and the backseat was not up to luxury standards for adults. This was fine for the Model S when it was the only EV luxury sedan in the world, not so much now - time marches on and Tesla moves with the times. They don't do it at the speed at which some Tesla fans would like to see because they want to maximize efficiency by maximizing return on existing investments.

Tesla moves exceedingly fast when such change will improve efficiencies, they drag their feet when delaying change will improve efficiencies.
 
Lets not worry too much about dilution - I'm praying for it.

Man, I’m already pissed by the invisible hand of Market Makers creating shares out of nothing from the very beginning; let’s not introduce even more magic skewing the stock price away from fundamentals, shall we?

(Anyone knows whether he is praying long or short? My leap of faith is about to expire worthless; cost me quite a bit of tithe premium. Should have known better).

edit: Looking at the strong SP fluctuations, prayer groups of different sects are filing contradictory requests. It is a battle!
 
Let's nip this in the bud right here: There is no information that leads me to believe Elon is in a hurry to go to Mars on one of the first missions. IMO, highly unlikely. I've seen him asked that question at least three times over the last several years and at no time did he ever signal a high probability that he would.

Remember, his dream is for humankind to have interplanetary subsistence, not for him to go to Mars personally. It doesn't increase the chance of success of humans becoming inter-planetary for him to personally go there. I suspect if he lives long enough, his health remains good enough and a Mars colony is successfully established, he will want to go there to experience Mars in his EOL. Or maybe he would visit and return. I mean, what CEO wouldn't want to go see what he has helped build? But he's not chomping at the bit to be on the first mission. And he's never indicated he was.
Let me just quote Elon himself on the subject: