I test drove one. Much more resistance around the corner. Maybe their AWD does not have the same high res control to turn on a dime. Model 3 has waaaayyyy better handling the way I drive.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I get what you're saying on the attacks... but the market has shot to the otherside. Instead of applying too much risk to the production ramp, they are applying none. Tesla was a ~20b company when it actually produced 20k cars. Tesla didn't cross 100b until Jan 2020 after profitability and after 360k production in 2019. Rivian and Lucid's current valuations are basically assuming smooth sailing to ~150-200k production. It is surely possible, but seems really unlikely to go smooth.
And that's why I agree on your safer bet.
At ~40-50b, I 100% understand the bets as the roadmap is there. Rivian at ~150b... I won't touch it.
Ouch! I wouldn't have recommended shorting TSLA via puts in 2019 at less than 1/20th the current price. That's where I started buying TSLA in earnest.
Musk has never thought of S&X as more than a stepping stone to higher volumes in less expensive cars. His plan for Tesla cannot be realized by depending upon cars priced well into luxury territory.
If the Model 3 was the wrong car to build, then why did it send Tesla on the path to major success? Can you tell me what happened to sedan sales after Tesla released the Model 3 in large numbers? That's right, Tesla single-handedly reversed the trend of declining sedan sales. Now that the Model 3 has proven to be a raging sales success, are you able to better wrap your head around why Tesla might have chosen the Model 3 as the EV to break into the auto market in a big way or are you still stuck in your 2019 thinking?
Now that the Model Y is climbing the sales charts and has makers like VW and Ford running scared and GM babbling false bravado, do you know why Tesla didn't go with the traditional boxy SUV shape? How's that "huge demand problem" coming along? Sometimes it's a good idea to re-visit perspectives from past years after enough time has passed to see how things played out.
Paging @Krugerrand (@Ocelot warned of a huge demand problem for Models 3 and Y). Yes, it was before your promise to buy another share at every mention of "demand problem" but no one will object if you want to apply the rule retro-actively.
I cannot beleive I am going to waste my time to repsond.Wow, that post from Ocelot in 2019 was hilarious. Thanks for the reminder. Every single thing in there was wrong. Congrats to all of us who disagreed and made fortunes since then!
Firstly, nice cherry picking.
1. come on now, those were WEEKLY or maybe very short term- puts, and I was right...just sold a few hours early. gimme a break.
2. even musk admitted e X was a mistake.
3. demand/sales in China did drop at one point.
3. And really you think if Y was builit before 3, we would not be at least the same place? like maybe model Y, then model 2? maybe ahead.
4. I still think the Y is ugly.
its easy to go back, and pull out things, and make it fit into your view.
You both seem like swell fellows.
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lafrisbee
Active Member
Max-pain has been screwy since last week. i know it is an odd time for the SP. But on max-pain.com the charts clearly show that anywhere above $1000 and below $1050 is where max-pain was this morning.
He took a stagnant business and turned it into the most valuable company in the world....i would call that more than competent in the world i live in.
I just hope the market does not 'group' Rivian and Lucid alongside Tesla (too late...yeah yeah)....but then again, we all know how rational the market is.
Where are all the short sellers these daysI just hope the market does not 'group' Rivian and Lucid alongside Tesla (too late...yeah yeah)....but then again, we all know how rational the market is.
Citron- Lefty
Hindenberg
Kynikos
Spiegel power point
They have so much practice in this
Toilet Boy? I doubt he can afford to have his electricity stay on long enough to charge his iPad in the bathroomWhere are all the short sellers these days
Citron- Lefty
Hindenberg
Kynikos
Spiegel power point
They have so much practice in this
Probably having a meeting with Burry.........discussing on how to spread more FUD.....oh yeah...anyone hear from Gordo lately, he's ben awfully quiet.Where are all the short sellers these days
Citron- Lefty
Hindenberg
Kynikos
Spiegel power point
They have so much practice in this
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I don't know if it's because Yahoo doesn't have an enterprise value listed for Rivian or if it's because Rivians Enterprise value is mathematically undefined but they are the only one on the spreadsheet with a N/A for the Enterprise Value in col Q.
Oh and before any Gilligans come along and tell me that Market Cap isn't Enterprise Value, please look at the RIGHT SIDE of the spreadsheet. Thank You.
Oh and before any Gilligans come along and tell me that Market Cap isn't Enterprise Value, please look at the RIGHT SIDE of the spreadsheet. Thank You.
The last time I posted a URL for this spreadsheet someone mansplained to me the difference between Marketcap and Enterprise Value and about 50 people here "liked" that mansplaining
because the link looks like Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap
as if you can't sort it alphabetically, or by zip code, or by anything else and still have the Enterprise Value listed
because the link looks like Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap
as if you can't sort it alphabetically, or by zip code, or by anything else and still have the Enterprise Value listed
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You sure that's accurate? I don't see Nikola in this list.....
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
You sure that's accurate? I don't see Nikola in this list.....
Funny, they aren't in position 21-25 either. Somehow there are two different Suzuki's ahead of Nikola.
wow, I didn't notice until now that Nissan fell out of the top 20.
I definitely want to see this, preferably with 4680 LFP batteries made by Tesla.
4680 LFP batteries made by Tesla in energy storage batteries, is an even higher priority.
IMO there is plenty of room at Berlin and Austin to build an additional factory to make Model 3 and a new compact Model,.
I would like to see Phase II at Berlin and Austin start immediately after Phase I is complete.
My take on Elon selling shares is simple, he is focused on the mission, the mission is looking more successful than he previously expected at all companies. That is translating into higher share valuations than he expected. Elon has done the sums, he isn't overly focused on accumulating more personal wealth than he needs. So Elon can afford to sell some shares to make a point, and probably to invest in other areas, which could be SpaceX, TITS, Boring Co or something else.
I don't think Elon is worried about the short term share price, he knows what is coming down the pipeline in the next 6-12 months, we will be back to setting ATHs before we know it.
thesmokingman
Active Member
There should be a new punitive punishment for anyone who claims AP or FSD did it moving forward.
Microsoft was already the most valuable company in the world prior to his take over. I’m not sure if it was when he took over, but it had been previously.
They’ve played tag with Apple since. Making a strong company with a near monopoly make money doesn’t take a visionary, it just take competence. Ballmer was stuck in a rut and Nadella got them back in their groove.
There was some time there when NIO, Nikola etc. were grouped in with Tesla but they fell off. I imagine that will happen again.I just hope the market does not 'group' Rivian and Lucid alongside Tesla (too late...yeah yeah)....but then again, we all know how rational the market is.
thesmokingman
Active Member
I remember that when Nikola was going off, CNBC was all over that *sugar*. I sat there going wtf to myself, there's no way Nikola... A year later thee truth was born out.
Is there some sense that both RIVN and LCID have backstops (Amazon, Saudis) that make them more guaranteed of success? I really, really don’t understand what’s driving these quickly rising valuations for these two.
Funny you post this because I had a project in mind with you in mind which I’m wondering if you’d volunteer for because you already keep track of the share price movements day to day.
A live spreadsheet tracking all the competition would be eye popping.
Tesla would look quite cheap if you added in the combined cap of rivian, lucid, nio, xpeng.
Then it gets even crazier once you add inn delivered vehicles.. revenue etc.
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